Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 130625 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 225 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND WESTWARD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 955 PM SATURDAY... SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A PATCH OF THINNING CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL PERSIST AT MANY LOCATIONS...AND WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING IN THE LOWEST 5000 FT OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRATUS TONIGHT. MILD LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. -SMITH WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING INTO THE REGION...EXPECTING CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER FOR CENTRAL NC. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE AS A BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WASHES OUT. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT MOISTURE EVEN MORE SO INTO CENTRAL NC. DESPITE THIS INCREASING MOISTURE...IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED AIR MASS (PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. MAX LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE SIMILAR THOSE SEEN ON SATURDAY AND THEREFORE...HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE... ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE EVEN WARMER...WITH TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 220 AM SUNDAY... THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM... CONSISTING OF A PROGRESSIVE BUT DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WAVY SURFACE BOUNDARY... IS STILL TARGETED BY THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION TUESDAY. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY. THE MAIN BULK OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING (MAINLY EAST). POTENTIAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH AND BEHIND THIS TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY SPELLED OUT QUITE WELL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. AFTER THE WET PERIOD IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE FROST THREAT IN THE MIDDLE... THE END OF THE WEEK STILL HAS SOME CHANCE OF BEING WET AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WOULD BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY... AFTER THE WET PERIOD IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE FROST THREAT IN THE MIDDLE... THE END OF THE WEEK STILL HAS SOME CHANCE OF BEING WET AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WOULD BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS COULD POSSIBLY EVEN LEAD TO SOME PATCHY LOW STATUS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT MENTION ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING... AS ANY PATCHY STRATUS WOULD BE RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE AND BE VERY LIMITED IN COVERAGE... IF ANY DEVELOPS AT ALL. OTHERWISE... EXPECT SOME FLAT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP TODAY GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 KFT RANGE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE 10 TO 13 KT RANGE... WITH GUSTS IN THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON TIME FRAME OF UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK... LOW STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER. THEN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR WED INTO FRI AS A COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/32 NEAR TERM...KRD/SMITH SHORT TERM...32 LONG TERM...32 AVIATION...BSD/HARTFIELD

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