Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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718 FXUS62 KRAH 141850 RRA AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 250 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will move away from the Outer Banks this morning as strong surface high pressure builds over the region. High pressure will shift south Sunday allowing a cold front to approach Sunday night. The front will cross the region Monday, bringing in much cooler and drier air. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1045 AM Saturday... Morning update to account for the fact that the wedge is hanging in over the area with a solid cloud deck from about 1000 feet up to about 2500 feet and this will erode much slower than the models eluded to. Therefore this will keep overcast skies in place going into the afternoon and keep the temperature curve lower as well. Previous discussion follows. -Ellis The main issue this morning is the timing of the lifting of the low stratus. Weak low pressure was analyzed near Hatteras at 200 am, with a developing surface high over western VA (moderately strong at 1026 mb). This was a southwest extension of the CAD high that is now moving off the New England coast (1030+ mb). The lifting out of the low status is expected to be quickly after sunrise today as the very strong mid level drying begins to mix down to the surface. This occurs as the weak low pressure near Cape Hatteras moves away, and the surface high over western VA strengthens. We expect mostly sunny skies by late morning or early afternoon in nearly all areas. Highs should respond nicely as most guidance supports 75-80 northwest and northeast, ranging into the lower 80s over the Sandhills. A light north wind at 5-10 mph is expected. The high will be overhead tonight. There should be a period between 400 and 800 am of some low stratus/fog, otherwise mostly clear. Lows in the 50s north and west and lower 60s elsewhere. -Badgett && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM Saturday... The surface high is expected to shift south of the area Sunday. A return SW flow will bring increasing warmth. Highs should be on the upper end of MOS guidance as the mid levels are slow to moisten ahead of the next front by Sunday night. Highs generally in the mid 80s with some lower 80s NW and upper 80s over the Sandhills. Skies will become mostly cloudy Sunday night. The chance of showers will increase late over the far NW by evening, then the chance of showers will increase elsewhere overnight. However, only 30-50 POP will be forecast, with QPF of less than 0.25. Lows will be warm (pre-frontal conditions), so we will go above the warmest MOS. Lows well into the 60s expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 250 PM Saturday... Long-awaited cold front will be moving swiftly across central NC early Monday, providing us our only chance of showers through next weekend. Strong low level convergence associated with this front, sadly, will not realize anywhere near its full potential for producing much-needed widespread and significant rain, as passage will be too quick and early in the day to tap instability needed for deeper convection. There will be line of perhaps vigorous showers reaching the Triad around daybreak, with some stronger showers in the Triange/Fayetteville/I95 corridor during the early afternoon, but the timing window for rain at any location will be limited - probably no more than 2-3 hours as the front races southeast. As such, amounts will be on the order of 1/4 inch...with some luckier folk receiving 1/2 inch. Clearing will quickly follow the front, but the temperature rises will be delayed and hampered by cold air advection which will accompany the clearing. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 60s. Much cooler and drier high pressure will build east and settle over the eastern seaboard Tuesday and linger for the remainder of the week. There will be a very gradual warming trend through the week as the airmass modifies under strong insolation. Highs will bottom out on Tuesday, reaching mainly mid 60s, then warm a couple of degrees per day to reach the mid to upper 70s by Friday and Saturday. Sweaters will need to be pulled out of the mothballs, as mins tumble into the low to mid 40s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, with mostly mid to upper 40s Thursday through Saturday mornings.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 635 AM Saturday... 24 Hour TAF Period: LIFR to IFR CIGS expected through 14z, with MVFR VSBYS, lifting to VFR by noon all areas. VFR conditions expected this afternoon and tonight. The exception will be patchy IFR CIGS and VSBYS between 08z and 13z/Sunday, then a return to VFR conditions all areas after 13z/Sunday. Outlook: A front will bring a period of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS and a chance of showers Sunday night into Monday, otherwise high pressure will bring VFR conditions back to the entire area late Monday through the bulk of the upcoming week.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Ellis/Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...BSD/Badgett

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