Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190714 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 315 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC NC TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH INCREASES...THIS CONVERSELY INCREASES THE LOW LEVEL EAST-NE FLOW OFF TEH ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECK OF STRATUS OR STRATOCU WITH CLOUD BASES 4500-6000FT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A BIT THICKER IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN VICINITY OF A WEAKENING INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SE COUNTIES (DUE TO INLAND MOVING SHOWERS FROM ONSHORE FLOW)...AND IN PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MAX TEMPS TODAY. IF OVERCAST SKIES DOMINATE THE REGION...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON. IF ENOUGH BREAKS OCCUR...COULD SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S. BELIEVE THE LATER SCENARIO MORE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST-SE WHILE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WEST. MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH MID-UPPER 70S IN THE NW PIEDMONT. TONIGHT...EXPECT BULK OF CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EVENTUAL ADVECTION OF A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. EXPECT A STEADY EAST-NE WIND OVERNIGHT (5-10 MPH). THIS MIXING WILL PREVENT NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS FROM REALIZING FULL COOLING POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS NEAR 60-LOWER 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY... SATURDAY...DRY AIR RIDGE WILL EXTEND SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL NC PROVIDING SUNNY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT INITIALLY ON TEMPS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE IN THE 1395-1402M RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS NEAR-LOWER 80S. SATURDAY NIGHT...THICKER VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST GFS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS I-95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING BUT THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS OVERDONE. PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MAINTAIN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE EAST WITH COOLER MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE WEST WHERE SKIES WILL BE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S SE. SUNDAY: AMPLIFYING/DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POLAR WESTERLIES WILL PICK UP THE LINGERING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND KICK IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING UP THE NC COAST AND THEN OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE...BUT A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOP INVOF OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE NEXT FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES PROJECTED TO CLIMB 20 METERS ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: 40 TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS TRAVERSING THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING NORTHER STREAM TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN US WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING . WRT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE EC...WHICH HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE FASTER TIMING...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AND GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...CONVECTIVE/RAIN CHANCES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE. WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT FROPA COULD END BEING A NON- MEASURABLE/SPRINKLE EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FASTER FROPA WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LIKE CLOCKWORK...A STRONG +1030MB CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH... ANCHORED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST DAYS OF FALL(AUTUMNAL EQUINOX BEGINS MONDAY SEPT 22 AT 10:29 PM EDT)WITH BONA FIDE FALL CONDITIONS. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 70 TO 75. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z IN VICINITY OF KINT AND KGSO. THESE SHOWERS MAY CAUSE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITY. LATER TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NC. THIS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE A CLOUD DECK WITH BASES 4500-6000FT WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND SCATTER-BROKEN SKY CONDITIONS IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION... DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVERAGE. A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS/CBL LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...WSS

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