Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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103 FXUS62 KRAH 072032 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 330 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY... MSAS SHOWS A SUB-1000MB (~994MB) SURFACE LOW EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FURTHER DEEPENING TO NEAR 980MB EAST OF THE OBX FORECAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. PRECIP RATES...A PERIOD MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET (AT TIMES ALL SLEET)...HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO AS AS THE LOW REACHES OUR LATITUDE. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE WEAK WARM NOSE HAS LIKELY ERODED...SO WHILE RATES HAVE FALLEN OFF...SOME SLEET AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP SHIELD STARTS TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SO EXPECTED...IN ADDITION TO THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH REPORTS ON SOME AREAS THAT IS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THROUGH 6PM...THOUGH THIS MAY BE CANCELED EARLIER. OTHERWISE...WE`LL SEE FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 30S UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME BLACK ICE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN IF ROADS DO NOT DRY OUT PRIOR TO THE CLEARING...AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY... THERE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE AND ITS KICKER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAVE TO A STRONG SHOT OF DCVA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SOUTHERLY WIND...GUSTING TO 20-25KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING AND MOISTEN...YIELDING STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LOOSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL KEEP THIS ALL LIQUID DESPITE THE LAPSE RATES AND A PATTERN THAT OFTEN FAVORS SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY BAND OF RAIN THAT CHANGES TO SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST VA (PER A LOOSE MODEL CONSENSUS). THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE DRIER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SECOND BAND IS LOW AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE VALUES FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTHEAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AND COLD ADVECTION STARTS TO KICK IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY... MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE...BUT PERIODS OF STRONG DCVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH STOUT VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE(H5 ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE BIG WEATHER STORY HERE WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BOTTOMING OUT TO AROUND 1240M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70 METERS BELOW NORMAL! HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER... THIS WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST LONG AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH WILL BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROZEN PRECIP AS THE UPPER WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER SINCE MOISTURE IS TYPICALLY LIMITED IN NW FLOW EVENTS...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY... WITH A A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE S COAST...PRECIP CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. RAIN HAS BEEN MIXING WITH OR COMPLETELY CHANGING TO SLEET AND SNOW ALONG AN AXIS FROM KFAY TO KRWI. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH 22Z OR SO BEFORE PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. CEILINGS HAVE ACTUALLY REMAINED ABOVE 2000 FT FOR THE MOST PART...AND VFR CONDITIONS HAVE EVEN BEEN PREDOMINATE AT MANY SITES. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND PASS BY THE NC COAST. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM KFAY TOP KRWI LATE TONIGHT WHERE IT HAS BEEN PRECIPITATION ALL DAY...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW MUCH REPORT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT. A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG DISTURBANCE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTLOOK...AFTER THE DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY PASSES BY...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EACH DAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ042- 043-077-078-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SMITH NEAR TERM...SMITH SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...SMITH

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