Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 161637 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1235 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will gradually dissipate today into Monday. High pressure aloft will build east from the Plains states mid to late week, leading to hot weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1018 AM Sunday... 13Z sfc analysis shows a nearly stationary front extending from KIXA to KRDU to KVUJ. Most notable across the boundary is the dwpt change, with mid 70s dwpts south of the boundary to upper 60s north. In terms of upper air, latest water vapor shows a broad trough covering much of the eastern US, with a shear axis running NE to SW across the Carolinas. North of this axis (and north of the aforementioned sfc boundary), 12z GSO sounding shows westerly flow and a dry airmass above a subsidence inversion around 650mb. That combined with sfc dwpts in the upper 60s, the sounding is relatively dry for this time of year with pwat 1.16". Contrast that to the MHX sounding which is east of the sfc boundary and east of the shear axis, and the sounding is wetter with pwat close to 2" and is less stable. That said, the best chance for showers and tstms this afternoon and evening will be along and south of the boundary, mostly south and east of the Triangle region and south near the Sandhills region. While the latest HRRR hints that a few showers may develop as far west as KGSO, the morning analysis suggests that any cells north and west of the Triangle should be very light and brief. Behind the boundary (generally north and west of the Triangle region over toward the Triad), the BL indicated by the morning sounding suggests temps should max out today fairly close to normal, upper 80s, while east of the boundary (south and east of the Triangle) look for highs around 90, or perhaps a couple degrees higher or lower dependent on eventual rain coverage this afternoon. Isolated or widely scattered showers/storms are expected to continue overnight in the proximity of the old front/residual outflows or rain cooled air. Low stratus and fog is now expected in the SE and possibly into the Triangle later tonight due to the extensive low level moisture. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Sunday... The mid level trough axis is forecast to remain along the Appalachians Monday and Monday night. Even though the low level boundary should just about wash out by then, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Without organization to the convection expected - POP should be 30-40 percent and QPF most likely less than 0.25 on average. Highs will top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Lows Monday night 70-75. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Sunday... A weak mid level trough, which is expected to be located over the area to begin the period, will slowly shift to the east of the CWA by Wednesday evening, with a strong mid level ridge located over the central U.S. nudging into the region for mid to late week. This will yield isolated to scattered storms on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon (highest probabilities across the SE and NW), with more isolated diurnal convection by late week with increasing temps. A northern stream disturbance may dampen the ridge some by next weekend, potentially yielding a better chance of some showers and storms by then. High temps are expected to be in lower 90s early week, to mid to upper 90s by late week. This may lead to heat advisories needed for portions of the area by late week. Low temps are generally expected to be in the 70s, with possible a few locations struggling to drop below 80 by late week. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1235 PM Sunday... Through the 24 hour TAF period: Expect VFR conditions for KINT/KGSO. To the south and east of KGSO over toward the I-95 corridor, flight conditions will be locally impacted and reduced by scattered showers and tstms this afternoon and evening, and potential for fog later tonight. Outside of the precip and fog, VFR conditions expected. Winds generally less than 10 kt at all TAF sites. Outlook... 18z Mon through late-week. Morning LIFR to IFR CIGS and VSBYS possible at all sites, but especially KRDU/KFAY/KRWI between 06z-14z/Mon and again Tue am. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR CIGS are expected. There is a chance of MVFR to IFR conditions with scattered PM showers/storms Monday and Tuesday, otherwise, lesser rain chances during the second half of the week.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...np SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...bd AVIATION...np/Badgett

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