Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 181817 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 215 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure centered over the Northeast will extend south down the Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic through Tuesday. Hurricane Jose will pass well offshore of the NC coast today and tonight, then drift farther north off the eastern seaboard on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 215 PM Monday... With hurricane Jose lifting north up the Atlantic seaboard, its limited effects will be weakening early tonight, with skies clearing after sunset. Light northerly low level flow into the northeast tonight may allow advection of low level moisture into the northern Coastal Plain, with perhaps some late night/ morning cloudiness across the east and north tomorrow morning. Only diurnal cumulus is expected tomorrow with highs only slightly hampered by northwest flow, reaching the mid 80s over most of the area. Mins tomorrow night will be perhaps a touch warmer, but still mainly in the mid 60s as an upper short wave moves across the area accompanied by some mid to high level cloudiness. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Monday... Forcing that might enhance convection is not readily apparent Wednesday in a lingering weak trof regime in the wake of Jose. Plenty of sun is in the offing, which will allow modification of the airmass to reach the mid and upper 80s, and very low 90s are possible along the far southern counties. Mins on Wednesday night will be persistence...mostly mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 310 AM Monday... Central NC will be under the influence of high pressure through much of the extended forecast period, resulting in a predominantly dry forecast. Also, expect skies to be mostly sunny/partly cloudy through the period. Highs in the mid to upper 80s expected on Wednesday and Thursday, gradually decreasing thereafter as a result of possible advection of some cooler northerly air. Lows should mainly remain in the low to mid 60s through Sunday. Of more interest during this period will be the tropics. Jose is progged to meander off the NE U.S. coast through the week, with increasing uncertainty through the weekend. Meanwhile, Maria will be moving through the Caribbean, northwestward toward the CONUS. Her path and impacts from Sunday onward are still highly uncertain as they will depend heavily on Jose and how the two systems interact with one another. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 PM Monday... Drier air will be moving in as hurricane Jose moves further north, allowing flow to back to north and northwest by Tuesday morning. May see brief IFR conditions across the northern tier of the area in the predawn, 10-13Z time frame, late tonight which and would potentially affect mainly RWI. We remain in a persistent warm and modestly moist airmass into the weekend, with potential for isolated diurnal convection, but very low confidence in the particulars regarding when and where. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS/mlm NEAR TERM...mlm SHORT TERM...mlm LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...mlm

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