Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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495 FXUS62 KRAH 251154 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 653 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will push across the region this afternoon and move offshore by early evening. Colder high pressure will blow into the area later today and tonight. A warm front will approach from the south late Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 407 AM SATURDAY... A squall line was driving into the western slopes of the Appalachians. The line is expected to weaken into a narrow band of showers/isolated thunderstorms by 12z, when it will be nearing the Blue Ridge. Expect the main cold front to push southeast into the mountains this morning. The pre-frontal line of showers should all but dissipate according to the latest model guidance. This appears likely given the current diurnal timing of maximum stability. Surface heating should allow the temperatures to reach the 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. Gusty SW winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 35 mph are expected. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the residual pre-frontal trough line as it pushes into the western Piedmont late morning or early afternoon. Most guidance suggests that MLCapes will increase to 500 to near 1000 J/KG as surface dew points rise to between 55-60 during the early afternoon. Increasing unidirectional shear and strong height falls, most pronounced north and into VA will aid in forcing for locally strong to severe storms. The developing convection is expected to form into a line of showers and scattered thunderstorms and push through portions of the region this afternoon. The highest POP should be across the northern and northeast zones between 100 PM and 500 PM, with at least some scattered showers/storms possible to the south including the Southern Piedmont and Sandhills. A couple of the storms may approach severe limits with the main threats from damaging wind gusts and large hail. Once the line passes, the main cold front will arrive in the NW by mid-afternoon, then in the east late afternoon and early evening. Much drier and colder air will blow in on NW winds. The skies will become clear this evening. Winds will gradually diminish late tonight with lows 30-35, except 35-40 SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 407 AM SATURDAY... High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather Sunday and Sunday night. Highs Sunday should reach the 55-62 range, with lows in the 30s. Scattered frost is possible, mainly in rural and low lying areas. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 350 AM Saturday... A warming trend will commence on Monday as the surface high moves offshore. However, cloud cover will increase across the area as a deep southwesterly flow develops. While this will lead to a warming trend it will also spell a return to unsettle weather with lots of clouds and periods of showers/storms. The first such disturbance in the southwesterly flow aloft is expected to move across the area late Monday into early Tuesday morning. Expect we will see an area of showers and perhaps a few storms move across the area during this time. A general lull in precip is expected Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, before a more significant s/w is expected to cross the area along with a strong cold front Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. High temps ahead of the front area expected to be in the 60s and 70s, with possibly a few lower 80s across the southern and eastern half of the area on Wednesday. Lows will follow the same trend, generally in the upper 40s to 50s. Dry weather is generally expected behind the front as surface high pressure is expected to initially build into the area, before a enforcing dry cold front moves across the area on Friday. High temps behind the initial front late next week are expected to be in upper 50s to 60s, with lows by Friday morning generally in the 30s. High Friday are expected to be in the 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 650 AM Saturday... 24 Hour TAF Period: IFR/LIFR visbys at KFAY/KRWI will dissipate by around 13Z or so. Elsewhere VFR conditions are expected to continue this morning. South to southwesterly winds will increase this morning in advance of an approaching cold front. Expect winds to increase into the 15 to 20 mph range by mid to late morning, with gusts of up 27-33 mph possible late morning into the afternoon. A cold front an associated broken band of showers and storms will move across the area this afternoon. The best convective coverage will be across northern portions of the area, where we could see a few strong to damaging wind gusts accompanying the strongest storms. Sub- VFR conditions will be possible with any convection. Winds will veer to westerly just behind a cold front that will cross the area immediately behind the showers/storms during the afternoon hours, then to northwesterly by around 00Z. Wind will decrease to around 7 to 13 mph range by this evening, with some gusts of around 20-23 mph still possible through mid evening. Outlook: High pressure will build in from the west tonight through Sun, moving east and offshore Mon. The next chance for sub-VFR conditions will be Mon night, lasting through Tue night and perhaps into Wed, as southwest flow brings in low level moisture and an increased risk for showers, as well low stratus and fog, especially dusk through dawn.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record highs for February 25: Greensboro: 81 (1930) Raleigh: 82 (1930) Fayetteville: 85 (1930) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...BSD/Hartfield CLIMATE...Badgett

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