Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 191744 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 144 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region from the west tonight as an upper level low tracks offshore the Carolina coast. Southerly return flow will develop late Monday into Monday night as high pressure moves offshore the Southeast coast and a backdoor cold front approaches the area from the north. && .NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
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AS OF 145 PM Sunday... Rest of Today: Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies along/east of Interstate 95 (ceilings 4-5 KFT) and partly cloudy skies elsewhere through mid afternoon as an upper level low tracks SSE along the Carolina coast. Cloud cover is expected to diminish by late afternoon as the upper level low tracks offshore the Carolina coast and subsidence increases over western/central NC. Expect highs ranging from the mid/upper 50s across the Sandhills and SW Piedmont to the upper 40s to lower 50s in the NE Coastal Plain. Tonight: Patchy frost (perhaps a light freeze in rural/low-lying areas) will be possible tonight as the MSLP gradient weakens and winds go calm (earliest in the NW Piedmont and latest in the SE Coastal Plain) in the presence of clear skies and a cool/dry airmass. Expect lows in the lower/mid 30s, coldest in the typical locations (e.g. rural and low-lying areas), particularly along/west of Hwy 1. The Spring Frost/Freeze Warning/Advisory program is scheduled to begin on March 27. As a result, the potential for frost or a light freeze will be conveyed via the HWO. -Vincent
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&& .SHORT TERM /Monday and Monday Night/...
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As of 145 PM Sunday... Monday: High pressure building over the region tonight will move offshore during the day Monday as a cold front approaches the central/ southern Appalachians from the west. As a result, warm advection will commence from west-east Monday afternoon as initially calm or light/variable winds become WSW ~10 knots. Expect mostly sunny skies with highs ~10F warmer than today, ranging from ~60F in the NE Coastal Plain to mid 60s in the W/SW Piedmont. Monday Night: Low-level moisture will increase from the west overnight as the cold front progresses slowly east into the Appalachians and low-level flow strengthens in response to a tightening MSLP/height gradient downstream over the Carolinas. Model guidance is fairly unanimous in generating a few hundredths of an inch of precip via elevated showers late Monday night (06-12Z Tue) over N/NW portions of central NC. With a dry airmass initially in place over the region and forcing (aside from warm advection) confined to transient small amplitude waves in NW flow aloft, confidence is low with regard to whether or not sufficient moistening /elevated destabilization/ and forcing will exist for elevated showers to develop. At this time, will indicate a slight chance of showers after midnight across the northern and western Piedmont. With increasing cloud cover and a SW breeze Monday night, expect lows to be much warmer than tonight, in the mid to upper 40s, coolest in the E/NE Coastal Plain. -Vincent
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&& .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... As of 355 AM Sunday... A low amplitude s/w trough is expected to move southeastward from the central/northern Plains into and across our area on Tuesday/Tuesday night, in the increasingly cyclonic flow across the eastern half of the country. At the surface a cold front will sink southward across the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will set the stage for an area of showers and some storms to track across the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. High temps are expected to be in the 70s in advance of the front on Tuesday, with lows by Wednesday morning ranging from around 40 NE to near 50 far S. Surface high pressure will build into the area behind the front Wednesday into Wednesday night (with possibly a few lingering showers in the morning), resulting in a return to dry weather and below normal temps, with possibly a some locations dropping to freezing or just below by Thursday morning. Surface high pressure over the area on Thursday will shift offshore on Thursday night resulting in a warming trend, while mid level ridging builds overhead. This will result in a warming trend for the end of the week, along with the increasing chance of morning stratus. The next cold front will approach the area next weekend, but should hold to the west and north of the area through Saturday. However, we could see a few showers/storms approaching the area from the west or north by the end of the period. High temps on Wednesday are expected to range from the mid 50s NE to the lower 60s southwest, with 50s expected areawide on Thursday. High temps should rebound by the end of the week/weekend as the surface high moves offshore, generally in the 60s and 70s. Lows will follow a similar trend, with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s for Thursday morning and 30s for Friday morning. Saturday morning low temps will be much warmer generally around 50. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday through Friday/...
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As of 145 PM Sunday... 24-hr TAF Period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. N/NNW winds will become sustained at 10-15 knots at the INT/GSO/RDU terminals. Further east and south at the RWI/FAY terminals where the MSLP gradient is tighter, expect winds to become sustained at ~15 knots with gusts to 25 knots possible through ~21Z. The upper level low centered over the DELMARVA this morning will track offshore the Southeast coast this aft/eve. As a result, the MSLP gradient/northerly winds will gradually weaken this afternoon, further weakening AOA sunset in response to the development of a nocturnal inversion. Looking Ahead: VFR conditions will persist through Monday. Sub-VFR ceilings will be possible Tue in assoc/w warm advection in advance of the next cold front approaching the region from the north. Sub- VFR ceilings/rain are likely Tue night/Wed morning as the backdoor cold front tracks southward through the Carolinas. VFR conditions will gradually return during the day Wed (persisting through Thu) as strong high pressure builds into the region from the north and breezy NE winds advect a drier airmass into the area. -Vincent
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Vincent NEAR TERM...Vincent SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...Vincent

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