Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251427 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1026 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL BRING DRY AND SETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 1025 AM MONDAY... TODAY: VERY PLEASANT MORNING IN PROGRESS AS TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH EXTENDING DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WHICH FOR THE MOST PART HAS KEPT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AT THE 3 KFT LEVEL. THERE ARE WIND GUSTS OUT THERE AS FAR WEST AS ASHEBORO EXTENDING THOUGH THE EASTERN BOUNDARIES OF THE CWA. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KTS HAVE BEEN SEEN THUS FAR AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GAIN A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND BEGIN TO ADVECT IN SOME 850 MB MOISTURE ONSHORE. THIS WILL INCREASE OUR CLOUD COVER FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PUTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN QUESTION. POINTS FROM HIGHWAY 1 WESTWARD SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE FULL INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM HIGHWAY 1 TO THE EAST. THE RESULTANT SHOULD BE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EVERYWHERE WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. IF CLOUD COVER DOES NOT INCREASE IN THE EAST...LOCALES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD ALSO SEE SOME MIDDLE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. -ELLIS TONIGHT: WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCES INVERSION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK TO MORE OF A NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO AGAIN BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THUS... WILL SHOW SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AGAIN. TUESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO BE MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY. THIS SHOULD YIELD A BIT WARMER TEMPS. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BY SOME 5 TO 10 METERS. THIS COMBINED WITH MORE SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (83- 87). -BSD
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