Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 281909 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY... AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW. MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY LATE...WITH MILDER LOWS AMIDST A STEADY 5KT SWLY WIND. LOWS IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...~18Z IN THE TRIAD...-21Z THROUGH THE TRIANGLE...EXITING COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR ~00Z THU. WHILE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT HEATING FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY LOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. COMMENCEMENT OF STRONG CAA ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE LATTER/SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...COINCIDENT WITH TYPICAL PEAK HEATING...WILL MAKE FOR A LARGER THAN NORMAL NW-SE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE. POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA WILL LEAD TO WEST-EAST CLEARING OVERNIGHT. LOWS 45 TO 55. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY... BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S FRONTAL SYSTEM. THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO FALL ABOUT 40M WITH THE FRONT...STARTING OUT AROUND 1335M EACH DAY...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S...JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE A STRONG VORT MAX PROGGED TO DIVE OUT OF CANADA AND CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AS HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL REGION-WIDE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER...FURTHER SOUTH AND WETTER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WITH IT CLOSING OFF OVER US ON SATURDAY....WHICH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT AND RATHER CHILLY SHOWERS WILL BE GREATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE RUN- TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS ITS ORIGIN AND DATA COVERAGE. HAVE PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THESE COULD BE HIGHER AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A COASTAL LOW SPINS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS AND THEN LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN US...SETTLING OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES FALLING TO NEAR 1305M WOULD SUGGEST UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...ESPECIALLY UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS...AS HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO IN PRIOR FORECASTS...A FROST AND/OR FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS...BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
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&& .CLIMATE... RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 28TH: MAX HI-MIN RDU 86/1919 69/1984 GSO 86/1919 64/1919 FAY 87/1919 65/2010 && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SWLY WINDS TO OCCASIONALLY GUST INTO THE UPPER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES SHOWING BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST/COASTAL PLAIN...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES IN THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN WED 18Z-THU 00Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTION CROSSES THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SE INTO THE AREA MAY BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH STRONG/BLUSTERY NWLY WINDS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...BLS CLIMATE...CBL AVIATION...CBL

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