Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 300438 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1240 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA OVERNIGHT... AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY... A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE GULF COAST. AS THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE COMMENCES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR FOG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN HIGH (DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S) AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY CALM. SOME CLEARING IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE WEST AND IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST. IN ADDITION... MOST LOCATIONS SAW AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP TODAY. THEREFORE...PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST...WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT ENOUGH). OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY... WITH A MOIST/STAGNANT SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE...CLEARING ASSOC/W SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG AND/OR OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS BY 07-10Z TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION OR MIXING...FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO LIFT AND COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DIURNAL HEATING/BUOYANT MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CLOUD COVER TO LIFT/SCATTER BY ~15Z...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO 80-81F. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TUE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING (AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE POSSIBLE ~06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 120 PM MONDAY... FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SET UP OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SUGGEST SOME AFTERNOON SHALLOW CU BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AROUND 1395 SUGGESTS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL... HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60. THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER FOR US WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT`S NOW PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE LATE ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN RAPID MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS SW FLOW IN THE BL INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE END RESULT NOWS LOOKS LIKE A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC PERHAPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AS FOR INTENSITY...MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OF SHOWER VARIETY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME SKINNY CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM... BUT MORE NOTABLY 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH FUTURE MODELS RUNS. OF COURSE THE TIMING OF THIS WILL BE FINE-TUNED AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER...SO IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR EVENTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING...YOU`LL DEFINITELY WANT TO CHECK BACK LATER THIS WEEK FOR AN UPDATE. NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A COOLING AND DRYING TREND IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS WEEKEND. A LITTLE BREEZY ON SATURDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS THE HIGH`S BUILDING IN...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO - OR PERHAPS A LITTLE BELOW- NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY... ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD (06Z WED). THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... TAKING WITH IT THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PATCHY LIGHT RAIN. THE CLEARING CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL FOSTER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FLEETING... WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG NOT A SOLID DECK BUT IN DISCONTINUOUS PATCHES... MAKING THE TAFS CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST) MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING WED THROUGH FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...KRD SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...NP AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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