Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 171417 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 915 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will drift off the Southeast U.S. coast and allow a warm front to lift north across the southern Mid Atlantic states today and tonight. An upper level trough will cross the region late Saturday and Saturday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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As of 915 AM Friday... Mid and high cloudiness over the region this morning is a result of a potent vorticity maximum diving SE into the base of the offshore- moving deep mid level longwave trough. As this feature pushes to our SE followed by rising heights later today, expect a trend toward increasing sunshine with drying and warming through the column. High insolation this afternoon combined with thicknesses that are around 30 m greater than yesterday morning`s values, as well as steady warming through the day as southwesterly low level flow kicks in, should translate to highs around 10 degrees above yesterday`s, from around 60 NE to around 70 SW. -GIH Expect clear skies and a light SW breeze tonight, with lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s in rural and low-lying areas to the upper 30s/lower 40s elsewhere, warmest in urban areas. -Vincent
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday... A deamplifying southern stream low tracking eastward through the Deep South on Saturday will progress across the Carolinas Saturday night. Expect cloud cover to increase in advance of the approaching wave Sat afternoon, with ceilings falling from 15-20 KFT to 5-10 KFT by ~00Z Sunday. Forcing for ascent will primarily be limited to DPVA attendant the upper wave. Due to the progressive nature of the wave /brief window for low-level moistening/, poor diurnal timing and a very dry antecedent airmass in the lower levels, it may be difficult to get measurable precipitation. Although isold showers cannot be ruled out, occasional sprinkles seem more likely. Expect highs Sat in the lower 70s, lows Sat night in the mid/upper 40s. -Vincent && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 325 AM Friday... Strong subsidence in the wake of the exiting trough will yield abrupt west-east clearing by late morning/early afternoon Sunday with a mild surface high building in from the west. Highs 70 to 75. Lows in the 40s. The southern stream is forecast to remain active with a vigorous Pacific upper trough/closed low forecast to move slowly east across the southern Conus, with most recent runs of the GFS and EC tracking the upper low across Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico during the mid week period. Such a solution/track this far south will mean very little if any precip for central NC Wednesday and Thursday, with bulk of rainfall staying across the Deep South/Gulf Coast Region. Instead, the main story will be the continuation of mild temperatures underneath the amplifying downstream shortwave ridge progged to move over the region through the mid week period. Expect daytime highs a good 12 to 5 degrees above normal. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 715 AM Friday... 24 Hour TAF Period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light/variable winds this morning will become southwest at 10 knots this afternoon, then decrease to 5 kt or less after sunset. Upper level cloud cover early this morning will give way to clear skies by late morning, with clear skies prevailing the remainder of the TAF period. Outlook: Aside from a small potential for isolated showers assoc/w an upper level disturbance crossing the area Sat night, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through early/mid week. -Vincent && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLS NEAR TERM...Hartfield/Vincent SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...Vincent

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