Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 281038 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 638 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN STALL OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 220 AM SUNDAY... THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS YET TO CROSS THE TRIAD/WESTERN PIEDMONT AS OF 06Z...THOUGH WILL LIKELY PROGRESS EAST OF THE YADKIN SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE BULK OF CENTRAL NC (EXCEPT PERHAPS SE COASTAL PLAIN) BY 12-15Z...THEN SLOW DOWN AND EVENTUALLY STALL ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE VIRGINIAS INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT...THOUGH CHANCES WILL BY-AND-LARGE REMAIN EAST OF CENTRAL NC ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 50S (N/NW) TO LOWER 60S (S/SE). -VINCENT && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY... CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MON NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE MON NIGHT/TUE. AS A RESULT OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND GLANCING DPVA...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE LATE MON/MON NIGHT. ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE LOCATION /INLAND PROGRESSION/ OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...MID/UPPER 80S...THOUGH LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER MON NIGHT...MID/UPPER 60S. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY... A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROJECTED THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE RESULTANT NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL MEAN INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WHEN HARD TO TIME DISTURBANCES OR EVEN REMNANT MCS ACTIVITY APPROACH. EXPECT A GRADUAL RISE IN DAILY TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES TUE-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS GENERALLY 68-73. HIGHS 88-95. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS THROUGH 13-14Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WNW WINDS AT 10-15 KT TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID- WEEK...ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC/W ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. -VINCENT
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&& ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...VINCENT

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