Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 170125 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 926 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will extend from the Northeast states to the central Appalachians, while Jose tracks northward, well east of the NC coast, through early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 926 PM Saturday... 1020+ mb surface high pressure extended from NY/PA southward down the Appalachians. A resultant, rather moist low level NE flow remained in place over central NC. Only scattered patches of high based stratocumulus and mid level altocumulus remained as of late evening from a day that was partly sunny. Patchy stratus and ground fog may again develop, mainly over the Coastal Plain between 500 and 800 AM. However, it is not expected to become widespread or dense. Temperatures are expected to follow persistence with high pressure in control again tonight. Lows generally 60-65 north and 65- 70 SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 PM Saturday... Hurricane Jose will continue the trek northward on Sunday off of the Carolina coast to our southeast. No real impacts are expected to central NC other than the potential for some cloudiness in the east with a band of showers perhaps progressing through the eastern portions of the CWA. A few wind gusts of 15-20 knots will be possible Sunday afternoon and into the evening. For the western half of the area, it may be hard to even realize clouds as things remain confined to the east. All in all a nice end to the weekend with low to mid 80s for high temperatures and lows Sunday night in the middle 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM Saturday... As hurricane Jose moves north and passes well offshore, the primary impacts will be increased cloudiness in the east on Monday, and the northerly flow will maintain a slightly below normal trend in our high temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Highs will be in the low 80s across the north to mid 80s south both days. It`s difficult to confidently identify any forcing which might provide some convective focus from midweek onward. Initial weak troffing at the surface and aloft in the mid week will give way to high pressure in the midweek as the lingering surface trof is pushed south of the area, Highs Wednesday and Thursday will reach the mid to upper 80s, with some very low 90s possible across the southern tier. Weak cool air advection in easterly behind the surface trof will stall the airmass modification and cool highs a couple of degrees on Friday, with the modestly cooler airmass settling in to produce mostly lower 80s Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 825 PM Saturday... Moist nnely low level flow will result in a period of LIFR-MVFR conditions centered over nern NC and sern VA late tonight-early Sunday, including as far wwd as RWI. The associated saturated layer will likely remain trapped beneath a strong, shallow inversion near the surface, such that LIFR-IFR conditions may linger at RWI until 14-15Z Sun. Much like Sat, a stray afternoon shower will also be possible at RWI and FAY. VFR conditions, with a nely wind that will increase into the 8-12kt range with diurnal heating on Sunday, are expected to prevail otherwise and elsewhere. Outlook: Continued nely flow between Tropical Cyclone Jose and high pressure centered along the New England coast will yield a good chance of late night-early morning stratus and an afternoon shower at ern TAF sites through Tue. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...MWS

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