Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 210830 RRA AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 330 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure at the surface and aloft will extend across the Carolinas through Thursday, resulting in record warmth across the region Wednesday and Thursday. A backdoor cold front will move southward into the area Thursday evening into Thursday night but lift back north as a warm front late Friday and Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM Wednesday... Low ceilings and pockets of fog this morning across the CWA, certainly not as low as yesterday morning but still potentially going lowers as we head into the pre-dawn hours. LIFR conditions primarily in the south this morning with IFR and higher across the northern tier. Fog will burn off after sunrise but ceilings may stick around for some time, particularly in the west where precipitation associated with a frontal zone west of the Appalachians will creep towards the western fringes of the forecast area. Aside from a few rogue showers, expect precipitation to remain to the west today as the Bermuda high will keep central NC void of precipitation. With warm air advection in place associated with return flow around the surface high and ridging aloft, temperatures will soar once again this afternoon into the upper 70s to low 80s in most locations with some mid-70s in the Triad where cloud cover is likely to be thicker. A few southwesterly wind gusts this afternoon of up to 15-20 kts will subside after sunset. Ceilings are also expected to go back down late this evening likely to IFR levels. Lows in the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 315 AM Wednesday... On Thursday, the Bermuda high will start to sink southwestward towards the coast and at the same time, a second surface high will cross the northern Great Lakes. The frontal zone to our west will get elongated and cut off between the two high pressures. Short wave disturbances coming from the deep south will travel up the Appalachians and then make a hard right turn through the mid- Atlantic states. This will again keep us dry for much of the day but partly to mostly cloudy. Temps again well above normal with low 70s across the north to near 80 degrees in the south. As the day progresses, the northern high will move east towards NY and New England and move into a more favorable position for cold air damming but the disturbances in between the highs leave some question as to how far south the cold wedge will be able to progress overnight Thursday and into Friday. This will leave a tricky low temperature forecast for Thursday night with low 50s in the northeast and upper 50s in the southwest.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 330 AM Wednesday... A backdoor cold front will retreat north as a warm front during the day Friday as high pressure off of the SE US coast strengthens and edges a bit further west. This will help to re-intensify southerly flow and warm air advection into the region. In all, only minor influence on temperatures is expected and mainly along and north of the Interstate 85 corridor. These areas may be limited to the mid to upper 60s during the afternoon while the rest of the area should warm nicely, with 70s to near 80 degrees will be possible. Some uncertainty here, as models continue to trend warmer, with some members keeping the boundary north of the VA/NC border altogether. If this scenario plays out, expect temperatures across the northern piedmont counties to be warmer than currently forecast. A more unsettled pattern returns by the weekend, as a surface low is expected to strengthen across the central Great Plains by Saturday and eject northeast through the Great Lakes Region through Sunday. This will push an associated cold front through central North Carolina Sunday and Sunday night before stalling it along the coast Monday and Tuesday. This will reintroduce showers and possibly a few thunderstorms as early as Saturday afternoon in the form of pre- frontal showers, with the best forcing arriving Sunday afternoon and evening as the front progresses through. Another wave will intensify along the front Monday into early Tuesday before a cooler area of high pressure takes over, keeping conditions a bit more seasonable.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 120 AM Wednesday... 24 Hour TAF period: Some low ceilings starting to set in this morning but they have been slower to develop than expected. Will continue to monitor throughout the morning for any signs of dense fog but expect a general lowering of aviation conditions through the early morning hours and then improvement after sunrise. Some wind gusts this afternoon up to 20 kts or so for a few hours before sunset. Another lowering of ceilings can be expected after 00z. Long term: A warm, moist weather pattern will promote chances for fog and low stratus the next several mornings. A cold air damming wedge could bring adverse conditions on Friday. A stronger cold front will cross the area on Sunday and Sunday night. && .CLIMATE...
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RDU Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/21 76 2011 55 1939 02/22 75 1897 60 1897 02/23 79 1980 57 1962 02/24 81 1982 58 1985 GSO Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/21 74 2011 50 1954 02/22 74 1925 57 1980 02/23 74 2017 52 1922 02/24 79 1982 55 1985 FAY Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------- 02/21 80 1991 61 1953 02/22 77 2003 56 1989 02/23 80 1922 55 1922 02/24 83 1930 60 1975
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...Ellis CLIMATE...RAH

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