Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 280525 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 123 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A tropical depression off the Southeast coast will drift slowly northwest toward the South Carolina coast through Sunday, before turning northeast and tracking off the southeast North Carolina coast through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /through tonight/... As of 1005 PM Friday... Little change required to the near term forecast. Latest data analysis shows high pressure (both at the surface and aloft) continuing to ridge into the region from the east. This has kept the area free of any convection tonight. Given very little change in the air mass over the past 24 hours, persistence will be key to the forecast tonight. Therefore, under mostly clear skies, overnight lows are expected to be mostly in the low/mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /Saturday and Saturday Night/... As of 325 PM Friday... An area of low pressure north of the Bahamas will slowly gather strength and likely organize into a tropical or sub tropical system by Saturday. This system will approach the southeast U.S. coast Saturday afternoon. Bands of moisture associated with the low will begin to affect southeast NC by Saturday afternoon, and more so Saturday night. This will lead to increasing cloudiness over our southeast counties by Saturday morning with an increasing threat for showers, mainly south of a Laurinburg-Fayetteville-Goldsboro line, late Saturday into Saturday night. Main uncertainty revolves around max temps for Saturday. While feel fairly certain that increasing/thickening cloud coverage will limit sunshine/heating over the southeast, presence of a mid/upper ridge over the northern Piedmont may suppress cloud coverage enough to allow for decent heating, warming temps into the mid 80s in the Triad and Triangle areas. If clouds come in faster/thicker than current thinking, max temps may end up a few degrees cooler. High temps lower 80s SE to the mid 80s NW. && .LONG TERM /Sunday Through Friday/... As of 305 PM Friday... Sunday through Tuesday: The likely tropical/sub-tropical low is expected to be located very near the South Carolina coast Sunday morning, shown by nearly all of model guidance. However, where the sub-tropical/tropical/remnant low tracks after approaching/moving onshore is still in question. Given the approaching system and influx of tropical moisture into central NC, we should see numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms on Sunday as the inverted surface trough pivots westward and into our area. This will lead to the potential of heavy rain with any showers and storms as PW`s are expected to surge to around/over 2 inches, along with at least some threat of at least isolated severe storms. With regard to the severe threat, there is still some uncertainty about how much instability we will have and how strong the deep and low level shear will be, with the eventual track and intensity of the system playing a major role. High temps Sunday should be limited to around 80 degrees thanks to the convection and mostly cloudy/overcast skies, but with quite humid conditions. The latest GFS and NAM shows the system lifting northward across the coastal plain of the Carolinas on Monday night into Tuesday and being absorbed in a passing northern stream s/w. The latest ECMWF is hinting at this potential now as well, which differ some from its previous run and has more of a drier solution across most of central NC by Monday, with any heavy rain/rain generally from the I-95 corridor and eastward. However, will maintain continuity for now with previous forecasts and still show at least likely pops across the eastern half of the area. Chances for showers and storms are expected to decrease further Monday night into Tuesday with any lingering trough axis located along the coast (higher chances east vs west for central NC). High temps on Monday and Tuesday are expected to be in the lower to mid 80s, with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Tuesday night through Friday: Will trend chances for showers and storms more towards climo with poor run to run model continuity, along with model differences. This will yield generally diurnal chance pops with high temps in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday through Wednesday/... As of 123 AM Saturday... VFR conditions are likely at all sites through today, although MVFR conditions will begin to move into FAY then RDU/RWI starting after 21Z. Additionally, RWI is likely to see banks of dense fog this morning which could briefly restrict vsbys there to under 2 miles. High pressure centered well offshore continues to nose westward across NC early this morning, yielding generally light winds and mostly clear skies. A tropical depression located off the Southeast coast is expected to continue tracking to the NW toward the SC coast today, and the resulting increase in low level flow from the SE into NC will gradually pull Atlantic moisture into our area, causing clouds to thicken with lowering bases from SE to NW. FAY is expected to trend to MVFR cig/vsby after 23Z, RWI after 00Z, and RDU after 02Z as patchy light rain spreads in from the SE. Surface winds will be initially from the south then shift to be from the SE this morning, holding under 10 kts through tonight. Looking beyond 06z early Sun morning, cigs/vsbys are likely to become MVFR at all central NC sites by Sun morning with areas of rain, as the tropical system approaches the SC coast near CHS by Sun evening. MVFR conditions will remain common through Sun with on-and- off showers, although a period of IFR or VFR conditions may occur. The tropical system is then expected to weak as it tracks northeastward off the northern SC and SE NC coast through Mon, and after areas of fog and perhaps IFR stratus Sun night, VFR conditions should return Mon afternoon. A humid pattern will hold Tue/Wed with IFR fog possible each morning, but otherwise VFR conditions will dominate Tue/Wed. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...KRD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...Hartfield

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