Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 160735 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 335 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist over the Carolinas through Wednesday, leading to dry weather and warm temperatures. An approaching cold front will bring increasing rain chances late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 335 AM Sunday... A smattering of MVFR/IFR visibilities out there this morning with the potential for more to develop as the morning goes on, especially across the northern and northeastern areas. Otherwise low temperatures so far have come down almost to the dewpoints with both in the low to mid 50s at this time. As high pressure builds over the area expect any fog to burn off after sunrise and then light and variable winds with little cloud cover is expected for the rest of the day. No precipitation is expected. High temperatures this afternoon in the mid to upper 70s. Low temperatures later tonight in the mid 50s.
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As of 335 AM Sunday... Surface high pressure begins to slip eastward on Monday and thus a return flow scenario that will begin to raise temperatures in the area back into the low 80s for highs which is about five degrees above normal at KFAY but 8 and 10 degrees above normal for KRDU and KGSO respectively. Another day of lots of sunshine is expected with no precipitation. Lows Monday night in the upper 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... As of 250 AM Sunday... Tue/Wed: Narrow Bermuda high pressure at the surface extending westward through the Carolinas will be capped by a mid level anticyclone, resulting in deep (850-300 mb) warming and subsidence. Apart from patchy early-morning fog, skies should be generally sunny, with well above normal temps -- highs in the lower 80s and lows around 60 -- as thicknesses are expected to be around 25-30 m above climo. Thu-Sat: The mid level ridge gives way to a narrow amplifying trough over the eastern third of the CONUS late in the week. Previous model runs had brought about some concern regarding the fate of broad weak low pressure spanning eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and northeastward toward Bermuda, with some models developing what appears to be a tropical low east of the Bahamas and taking it northward near eastern NC within the strengthening SSW steering flow east of the encroaching trough. But the latest model runs keep such a low far enough offshore to be of little to no consequence for flood-ravaged eastern NC. We should still see increasing chances for showers however starting Thu night, and likely peaking Fri as the cold front sweeps eastward through the area, followed by dwindling pops Fri night. It doesn`t appear that there will be much opportunity for deep moisture return, which would hold down precip amounts for the event. Expect warm temps again Thu, with highs near 80 with increased cloud cover. High marginal of error for temps Fri with the front moving through, and for now will have highs around 70 in the Triad ranging to the mid-upper 70s in the SE, all with good chances for showers. Uncertainty grows heading into Fri night/Sat, as the operational GFS and ECMWF swing an amplified but open mid level trough to our east Fri night along with the surface front, bringing in cooler temps starting Fri night, although some model suites including earlier GEFS ensemble means were much slower with a closed low in the trough base. Will go with the more progressive solution of more recent runs, with lows Fri night in the low-mid 50s. Expect a return of some sunshine Sat with slightly below normal highs in the 60s to around 70. -GIH && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 AM Sunday... 24 Hour TAF period: A few MVFR ceilings out there across the north this morning and some potential for some radiation fog as KRWI has already come in with 1/2 mile and HRRR model runs show that some fog could continue to develop this morning, mainly across northeastern areas. After sunrise, fog should clear and light and variable winds and mostly clear skies should prevail. Long term: Mostly VFR conditions expected for much of the work week before some unsettled weather moves in towards the end of the week into next weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 250 AM Sunday... Major river flooding continues on the lower reaches of the Neuse and Tar rivers, although levels are expected to fall to moderate flooding today. Minor flooding is expected for several days on the Roanoke River at Roanoke Rapids and Scotland Neck, due to upstream lake releases. For details, see && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...Ellis HYDROLOGY...RAH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.