Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 261700 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 100 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NC TODAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY... LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED TO NEAR TERM FORECAST. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS THAT THE MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED TO A WLY FLOW VERSUS A NW FLOW 12 HOURS AGO. THIS SIGNALS ADDITIONAL WARMING IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SUGGESTING A MID LEVEL INVERSION. THIS SET-UP SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD END UP ABOUT 8-10M WARMER THAN SATURDAY. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS NEAR 90-LOWER 90S...COMPARABLE TO CURRENT FORECAST. -WSS A VORT MAX OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...TO NEAR THE NJ COAST BY 12 MON. THE APPROACH OF THAT FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY MID-LEVEL MOISTENING MAY SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN VA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND/OR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MON. NOT AS (UNSEASONABLY) COOL...WITH LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 70 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY... A DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT AIDED BY THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDING EASTWARD WILL BRING HOTTER TEMPERATURES MONDAY. A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH IS EXPECTED WHICH COULD HELP INITIATE A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS... HOWEVER CHANCES APPEAR LOW AT THE CURRENT TIME. HIGHS 90-95. LOWS GENERALLY 70-73 AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY... STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GENERATE HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST... THEN POTENTIALLY STALLS OVER THE REGION. BEFORE THEN... SLIGHT CHANCES OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BUT A MAIN KICKER SHOULD BE LACKING. HOWEVER... ANY DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EITHER MAINTAIN OR KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY APPROACH. WE MAY HAVE TO RAISE POP IN LATER FORECASTS. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 06Z MONDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...AND POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRWI AND KFAY. THE RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION...AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED THOUGH SCATTERED COVERAGE ANTICIPATED WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS OUR VICINITY. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE FAVORS AN UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...WSS/26 SHORT TERM...PWB LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...WSS

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