-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
242
FXUS62 KRAH 261726
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
130 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong ridge of high pressure will extend over the Mid Atlantic
through the rest of the week, then slowly shift offshore toward
Bermuda over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM Thursday...

* A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM today.

* There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across
  central NC this afternoon and evening.

Clear and sunny skies to start the day will for unimpeded daytime
heating. Combined with lower/mid 70s BL dewpoints, this will support
strong and robust destabilization across the region.

Initial convective development will likely be tied to to terrain
induced differential heating and weak convergence along a lee-side
sfc trough across western NC. As storms evolve, cold-pool driven
outflow boundaries will become the primary mechanism for additional
storm development and organization.

While shear remains weak, the presence of high D-CAPE values (1200-
1700 J/KG) will foster a favorable environment for locally damaging
wind gusts with the strongest storms.

In addition to the severe storm threat, dangerous heat will persist
with afternoon heat indices climbing into the lower to mid 100s,
posing heat related risks, especially for those spending extended
time outdoors.


Previous discussion:

Lingering showers will continue to abate over the next hour or two.
Aloft, high pressure will continue ridging across the mid-Atlantic,
while a weak area of low pressure slowly drifts nwd across FL
through tonight. Weak perturbations around the low in the mid-level
flow this aft/eve could help kick off showers and storms, especially
along residual surface boundaries, with greatest coverage over the
wrn Piedmont. There should be plenty of instability, with SBCAPE
around 2500-3000 J/Kg, but relatively weak shear (less than 20 kts).
PWATs of 1.7 to 1.9 inches are also expected. An isolated strong
wind gusts and localized heavy rainfall will be the primary threats
with the storms. Convection should taper off with loss of heating.
As for temperatures, earlier convection has helped knock
temperatures down, with generally low to mid 70s across the area.
Max low-level thicknesses this evening should be slightly lower than
previous days, but still 1435-1440 meters. That and the slightly
lower starting point should result in highs near-slightly lower than
Wed, mainly in the mid 90s. However, dewpoints also in the low to
mid 70s will again result in heat index values of 100 to 106. Will
continue with the Heat Advisory, though the best chance for heat
indices of 105 or greater will be from the Triangle area east. Lows
tonight should be in the low to mid 70s, lowest west where better
coverage of convection is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Thursday...

* Chance of storms once again, mainly across the N and W, with temps
  remaining just above normal.

The mid-upper low near the FL/GA border early Fri will continue a
NNW drift over GA through Fri night, while at the surface, weak lee
troughing holds over the Piedmont. We`ll continue to see weak
vorticity tracking through the NE side of the low over SC into W NC,
along with shots of upper divergence maxima within the southeasterly
upper jet exit region, within an area of near 2" PW. There may be
some areas of convective debris mid cloudiness and patchy low clouds
to start the day, but overall expect a period of decent heating to
facilitate convective initiation, under the influence of weak
dynamically-induced lift, particularly in areas of differential
heating. The mid level SSE flow between the GA low and anticyclone
centered off the Carolina coast will remain weak, as will the winds
throughout the column, resulting in poor bulk shear. But despite
this, with what is expected to be a period of moderate SBCAPE Fri
afternoon and decent low and mid level lapse rates across the W
Carolinas, we should see scattered (numerous in our NW) storms
develop in the afternoon, primarily slow-moving or meandering storm
clusters with the potential for strong wind gusts. Convection should
diminish gradually overnight with nocturnal low level stabilization.
Expect highs of 88-95, followed by lows in the low-mid 70s under
partly cloudy skies. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 AM Thursday...

* Little change in the stagnant/weak-flow regime and above normal
  temps through Mon, yielding daily late-day storm chances, highest
  across the NW.

* Convection chances increase by Tue, lasting into Wed when temps
  will trend down closer to normal.

During this period, as weak surface troughing holds over the NC
Piedmont, the baggy mid-upper low over the Southeast states and
Carolinas will move little through the weekend, meandering over the
S Appalachians before weakening further to a broad weak trough by
Mon. While we`ll no doubt see small day-over-day changes in the
sensible weather, given the weak pressure patterns through a deep
layer, poor mid level flow, and the lack of any significant weather
systems over much of this period, will follow persistence for the
forecast, with temps generally staying above normal in the low-mid
90s, as low level thicknesses stay about 5-10 m above normal each
day. Expect late-day scattered storms focused over our N and W areas
as terrain convection drifts into the area. With at least moderate
CAPE daily Sat-Mon but very weak bulk shear, we should see pulse-
type storm clusters with a low threat for organized severe storms.
With humidity still elevated, both forecast heat indices and the
experimental Heat Risk suggest a continued low-end heat-health risk,
mainly for those without adequate cooling and those exerting
themselves outdoors, but overall the most intense heat will have
subsided. By Tue into Wed, a broad northern stream trough will shift
through ON/QC and Great Lakes into the Northeast, leading to an
increase in mid level flow over the Mid Atlantic region as a surface
cold front gradually approaches from the NW with a preceding
sharpening of the Piedmont trough. This improving flow aloft along
with a prefrontal increase in PW will prompt greater and earlier
storm coverage Tue/Wed, with more cloudiness. Expect highs to trend
closer to normal, 90-95 Tue and around 90 Wed. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 PM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: Highest coverage of storms and associated sub-
VFR restrictions are expected across the western terminals (KINT and
KGSO) this afternoon and evening before dissipating from loss of
heating. Cannot rule out patchy ground fog at fog-prone locations
like KRWI. Otherwise, expect predominately VFR conditions through
the TAF period ending at 18z Friday.

Outlook: The best chance of storms on Friday will once again be
focused across the western terminals. Beyond that, a daily pattern
of diurnally driven convection and patchy early morning fog is
expected through early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Daily High Minimum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 26      77 (2024)      74 (2010)       76 (1997)
June 27      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       77 (1998)
June 28      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       78 (1914)
June 29      78 (1914)      74 (2024)       76 (1969)
June 30      80 (1936)      77 (2024)       79 (1936)

Record Daily Maximum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 26      103 (2024)      102 (1914)     101 (1951)
June 27      104 (1954)      102 (1954)     102 (1998)
June 28      100 (1959)       99 (1959)     105 (1954)
June 29      105 (2012)      102 (2012)     106 (2012)
June 30      105 (2012)      101 (1959)     102 (2012)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...CBL/KC
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...CBL
CLIMATE...RAH