Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 010244 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 943 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach the area this afternoon and then move across central NC this evening. High pressure will build into the region on Thursday and persist through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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As of 943 PM Wednesday... Nocturnal cooling and resultant increasing BL CIN quickly wiped out the weak instability across Central NC and thus resulted in a rapid weakening of the primary convection band that`s currently advancing east into eastern NC. This band will exit the area in the next couple of hours. However, rain chances are entirely over just yet, with Hi-Res WRF models showing a secondary and narrow line of convection accompanying the cold frontal passage through the area between 03 to 12z. Temperatures will fall behind the front with lows by daybreak ranging from around 50 in the Triad to around 60 in the Coastal Plain where the front will just have cleared the area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... The synoptic cold front will have moved to the coast by 12Z tomorrow morning, with perhaps some early morning clouds giving way to sunny skies and cold air advection throughout the day. Models indicate low level thicknesses during mid afternoon about 50 meters down from Wednesday afternoon...which translates to 10-15 degrees cooler. As such, highs will edge above normal one final day...reaching around 60 northwest ranging to upper 60s in the southeast. Seasonable high pressure over the central plains will build eastward and the pressure gradient will relax Thursday night. Under clear skies with the cool dry airmass in place, mins will tumble into the 30s over the area, with some locations in the north and west potentially falling slightly below freezing near sunrise. Near zonal flow aloft and reinforcement of the surface high with modestly cooler air from the northern plains will maintain the status quo with mostly sunny skies Friday and increasing high cloudiness Saturday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s Friday cooling to the low and mid 50s Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 252 PM Wednesday... In the Sunday time frame...moisture advection out of the Gulf will stream east along a frontal zone setting up across the Gulf States. With a cool dry airmass in place, we should see a thickening cloudiness Saturday night with light rain breaking out due to isentropic lift in the west by mid day Sunday, and will maintain ongoing chance PoPs in the west during the morning spreading over the east during the afternoon. Highs will be subsequently suppressed by clouds and evaporative cooling, ranging from mid 40s in the northwest to lower 50s in the southeast. The forecast from Sunday night onward remains low confidence pending consensus as to the progression of a cutoff low over northern Mexico which will be lifting ENE across the plains early next week. Initially, the high pressure over the area is reinforced by the arrival of a second surge of cool dry air from a transitory surface high oriented more classically from New England south down the east coast, which would suppress moisture southward on Monday. This would set the stage for another isentropically induced rain regime on Tuesday/Wednesday as the moisture associated with the aforementioned cutoff low and associated surface reflection ride up the cooler denser air. Will keep PoPs on the low chance side for now, with highs in the 50s Monday through Wednesday as we wait to see how the scenario plays out. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 830 PM Wednesday... 24 Hour TAF Period: A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms is currently moving across the area this evening in advance of a cold front. MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible with the band of convection as it moves across the region the evening, along with some wind gusts of up to 30-35 mph. Some cigs may linger into the MVFR range into early Thursday morning before the surface cold front moves through the area. VFR conditions are expected on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the area from the west. Expect winds will be west to west-northwesterly at around 8 to 12 mph, with a few wind gusts of up to 15 to 20 mph. Outlook: High pressure will continue to build into the region on Thursday night and persist into Saturday resulting in fair weather. A storm system will approach the area from the southwest on Sunday with a chance of adverse aviation conditions late sunday into Monday. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for 11/30 RDU 77 2006 FAY 80 1927 GSO 74 1991 Record high minimums for 11/30 RDU 62 1934 FAY 62 2001 GSO 62 1934 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...MLM LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...BSD/BLAES CLIMATE...RAH

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