Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 182333 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 733 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure over the Mid-atlantic will extend across the region into the weekend. A cold front will approach the area from the west early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 PM Wednesday... With high pressure at the surface and aloft firmly in control of our weather, expect dry and seasonably cool conditions tonight. Latest model guidance not noting as much of a signal for patchy low stratus in vicinity of our far southeastern counties as before. So, aside from a few patches of cirrus, expect clear skies overnight. The air mass has modified, so expect overnight temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than last night. Bulk of region will be in the low- mid 40s, with upper 30s in the normally colder locations. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Wednesday... Little change in the weather pattern as high pressure will remain positioned overhead. Under sunny skies, temperatures should rebound back to levels close to normal, primarily in the mid 70s. Continued pleasantly cool and dry Thursday night with min temps in the mid- upper 40s, lower 40s in the cooler locations. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM Wednesday... Glorious "fair" weather will continue through the weekend as the upper ridge axis shifts east and over the area Friday and Saturday, then offshore Sunday. The dry surface high follows suit, with low level easterly flow gradually veering more southerly through the weekend. Expect sunny skies with light winds and highs reaching the mid to upper 70s each day. Morning lows will be nippy, but warming a bit, with Saturday morning`s lows mostly in the upper 40s warming to the lower 50s for Sunday morning, and further to the mid 50s Monday morning. By Sunday night, the low level winds will be southeast and increasing as a strong cold front edges east towards the mountains. Upslope flow will produce increasing cloudiness spreading in from the west Sunday night, with showers developing as far east as the western Piedmont (Charlotte and the Triad) by Monday morning. Shower coverage will increase throughout the day, enhanced by the approach of stronger upper dynamic support associated with an upper level short wave which will be moving east across the area Monday night. While still subject to error, the timing of the deepest moisture, low level forcing, and upper dynamics which would favor stronger convection align best Monday night into early Tuesday, missing out on our strongest diurnal instability. Highs Monday prior to frontal passage should reach mid and upper 70s, with warm air advection offsetting the lessened insolation. There is considerably more uncertainty as to whether we have a relatively clean cold frontal passage on Tuesday with drying to quickly follow, or whether we might have a more vigorous upper short wave move across to produce more widespread convection during the day, and will maintain ~50% PoPs. The cold air surge behind the front will be delayed until later in the day, and highs Tuesday should have a chance to reach upper 60s to lower 70s. The colder, drier air will be settling into the area Tuesday night and Wednesday, with mins falling into the 40s Tuesday night, and highs stalling mostly in the lower 60s on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 733 PM Wednesday... 24-Hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. The only exception would be a chance for some patchy fog with some MVFR visbys at KRWI (lesser chances at KFAY) between 09Z and 12Z Thursday, though confidence is not high. Otherwise, generally clear skies and light and variable winds will persist through the period. Looking ahead: VFR conditions will prevail through the first half of the weekend, with brief periods of sub-vfr conditions in the pre- dawn hours possible near KFAY and KRWI. Upslope flow in the west late Sunday night or Monday ahead of an approaching cold front could result in some sub-vfr conditions, however the next chance for widespread sub-vfr conditions will come with pre-frontal convection between Monday afternoon and Tuesday night as the front moves into and through the region.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...KC

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