Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 260609 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 109 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 918 PM SUNDAY... AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH DAYBREAK. ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY MORNING AND WILL TRACK NEWD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY EVENING-NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED(PWS 0.50-0.60")...INTENSE H5 FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 120-140 METERS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A BAND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS PRECLUDING ANY P-TYPE CONCERNS. TEMPS MAY FALL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO..WITH TEMPS LEVELING OUT WIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER. LOWS RANGING FROM MIDS IN THE EAST TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 WEST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY... AS THE VORTICITY ALOFT TRACKS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY... ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED OFFSHORE AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE OFF CAPE HATTERAS... THEN PULL NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL FALL OFFSHORE WITH THE STORM ITSELF AT OUR LATITUDE. HOWEVER... SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STORM WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS OVER NE OVER THE WASHINGTON- PHILADELPHIA REGIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS (RAIN) MONDAY AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW. HOWEVER... THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NE ZONES AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN... COLD AND DRY AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE IS NOT A CONCERN FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN IF THERE ARE A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR FLURRIES AT THE END OF THE EVENT (MAINLY RDU NORTH AND EAST) - IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO STICK. SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. QPF WILL BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH NORTHEAST. HIGHS GENERALLY 40S NORTH TO 50S SOUTH. A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AND EAST... MAY BECOME A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES BEFORE THE DRY AIR WINS OUT. BECOMING CLEAR SOUTH AND WEST. BREEZY. LOWS 25-30 WEST AND 33-35 NE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY... TUE AND TUE NIGHT: EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY TUE IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A POTENT NOR`EASTER TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MID-LEVEL CEILINGS...ESP IN N/NE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/ PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MATURING UPPER LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AS THE MATURE /VERTICALLY STACKED/ UPPER LOW PROGRESSES FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WED MORNING IN THE MID 20S...COLDEST ALONG THE YADKIN RIVER WHERE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THE MOST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS (SFC DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS)...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY WED IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE /HIGH PRESSURE/ BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S (COOLEST NE). ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY VIA NW FLOW ALOFT WED NIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOWS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT SUFFICIENT FORCING/ MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S. FRI-SUN: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THIS PERIOD AS NW FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO TROUGHING ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR NONE TO LOW...WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE DRIER/SUBSIDENT WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 105 AM MONDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z MODELS AGREE ON SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE YET TO SHOW MUCH OF A HINT OF THIS. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL COVER IN THE TAFS WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF IN THE EAST ON ANY DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS AT KRDU AND KRWI UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. KFAY MAY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE. AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KTS...PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LONG TERM: ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FORM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL/BADGETT NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...ELLIS

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