Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 020836 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 335 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the Eastern U.S. from the west through the upcoming weekend. An approaching upper level disturbance and moist flow from the Atlantic and Gulf will bring increasing rain chances beginning Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /today through tonight/...
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As of 205 AM Friday... Another quiet day with high pressure building in at the surface from the NW, and rising heights aloft as the axis of the broad mid level ridge shifts eastward over the Southeast states. Forecast soundings unanimously show a dry and stable column, with the only clouds likely to be a few high thin clouds resulting from minor high level moisture within a fast mid-upper flow across the region. Slightly below normal thicknesses projected today balanced by abundant sunshine should yield highs close to normal, from the mid 50s to around 60. High thin clouds will continue to stream into the area tonight as blowoff from TX convection tops the broad ridge and streams into the region. Lows 30-36 under fair skies with light winds. -GIH
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&& .SHORT TERM /Saturday through Saturday night/... As of 240 PM Thursday... The surface ridge, centered over the central Miss Valley early Sat, shifts NE through the Great Lakes region through Sat night while continuing to extend SE through NC. Pieces of energy emanating from the deep low over NW Mexico will slowly break down the ridge as they ride along its top into NC, resulting in slowly thickening and lowering clouds, particularly Sat night. Expect mostly sunny skies early Sat to trend to partly sunny in the afternoon, then to cloudy Sat night from SW to NE as moist upglide strengthens and deepens in the mid levels. Expect no pops, however, as the column remains quite dry below 700 mb. Thicknesses should be slightly lower Sat than on Fri, suggesting cooler highs in the lower to mid 50s. Increasing clouds should limit radiational cooling in the SW CWA Sat night, lesser so in the NE, so expect lows to range from the mid 30s NE to around 40 SW. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 335 AM Friday... Sunday is expected to be a dry and cold day with high pressure to the north eventually moving offshore by Sunday night and although weak, could end up being an in-situ damming situation by Sunday night into early Monday morning. Highs sunday only in the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows Sunday night in the upper 30s to lower 40s. On Monday a weak wave will move up the Carolina coast and depending upon its track could bring some rain to central NC and points east. The best chances for rain will be across the south and east before a lull in precipitation on Monday night. Highs in the mid 50s and lows in the low to mid 40s. The real weather maker of the long term will be Tuesday and Tuesday night with a Miller B scenario that will bring two lows out of the deep south, one which will move up the coast and the other west of the Appalachians and up through the Tennessee Valley. The upshot is an extended period of rain on Tuesday with enough dynamic to bring some heavier amounts to the area. That being said, forecast soundings are very stable with a strong warm nose over the area that will be hard to overcome so the threat for any thunder at this time seems low but a change in the track of the coastal low could change that. Warmer but a large temperature gradient across the area with low 50s in the Triad to low 60s in the southeast. The rain will end Tuesday night and Wednesday and Thursday should be drier with highs near 60 degrees.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z Friday through Tuesday/... As of 1235 AM Friday... High confidence in VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. High pressure will continue to build into the region, with deep dry air as mid level ridging shifts over the Southeast states. Only a few thin high clouds are expected across the area today through tonight, and low humidities will result in VFR vsbys. Surface winds will be light from the NW through daybreak, then from the W or WNW at 8-12 kts through sundown, and light from the NW again tonight. Looking beyond 06z Sat: High clouds will steadily increase and thicken with lowering bases to around 10 000 ft AGL through Sat night, and to around 5 000 ft AGL Sunday with light rain spreading in late from the SW as an upper level disturbance approaches from the SW and a surface frontal zone moves in from the south. Confidence is high that conditions will deteriorate further to IFR Sunday night and remain poor at IFR or LIFR Monday into Tuesday with periods of rain and potential low level wind shear. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...Hartfield

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