Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 150015 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 714 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will be anchored over the Deep South tonight and Thursday. A low level southwesterly flow will initiate a warming trend, leading to well above normal temperatures Thursday and Friday. A cold front will cross the region late Friday, with a much cooler air mass to follow for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... While extensive cloudiness will persist across central NC tonight, just isolated showers are expected. A deep wly flow will continue to stream moisture overhead of a series of perturbations lifting across the southern plains into the TN Valley. One s/w was currently entering the TN Valley, producing scattered to numerous showers. This shower activity projected to reach the mountains of east TN/western NC late this evening (between 9 PM and midnight). Due to the westerly flow (downslope component over the Piedmont), and an overall weakening of the disturbance, the showers will decrease in coverage and intensity when they reach the Piedmont after midnight, though coverage expected to be no worse than isolated, and amounts very light. The warmer air just above the surface observed on the 12Z GSO sounding has been able to mix down to the surface, aiding to scour out the residual cad air mass from Tuesday. A light but steady sly sfc wind tonight coupled with overcast/broken sky coverage will yield overnight temperatures well above normal, ranging between 50- 55 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... Continued unseasonably mild Thursday into Thursday night as the low level swly flow will strengthen in advance of a cold front approaching from the northwest. The mild start to the day coupled with the warm swly flow will boost temperatures into the low-mid 70s, with upper 70s probable across the Sandhills and southern coastal plain. Currently expect a continuation of the variably cloudy skies, though any extended periods of partial sunshine could easily cause temperatures to warm 2-3 degrees warmer than forecast. While an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out late Thu or Thu night, the probability of measurable precip appears slim, so will have PoPs less than 15 percent. It will become notably breezy late Thu into Thu night with sustained winds 10-15 mph expected, and gusts around 25 mph. The breezy and mild conditions will maintain warm temperatures overnight, primarily in the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 PM Wednesday... Friday morning lows will be near 60, which could tie or break record high minimum temperatures across the area. This warm headstart on the day will be welcome, as a strong cold front will be sagging southeast across the Ohio Valley and through the area by Friday afternoon. Temperatures will top out a little early in the day, but still reach the low 70s across the north to near 80 in southern tier counties. We`ll be close to record high temperatures at RDU and FAY, but probably fall just a little shy. Showers are expected across the northern tier by mid day, and will be spreading south across the area during the afternoon and evening. Colder air will make its stronger surge south Friday night as the front moves south of the area and stalls, resulting in the focus for showers shifting to the southern tier as well. Mins will bottom out mostly in the low to mid 40s, with some 30s across the north due to an earlier onset of the cold air advection. A subtropical ridge will be amplifying over the south Atlantic and nudging the frontal zone northward to near the NC/SC border to produce more showers Saturday into Saturday night. Highs Saturday will be significantly cooler, mostly in the mid to upper 40s, with lows Saturday night falling to mostly upper 30s to lower 40s. There will be a break in the dampness Sunday with a modest warmup as high pressure ridges briefly into the area and strong sunshine allows highs to reach mid 50s north to lower 60s south. A warm front will be lifting north through the area accompanied by showers on Monday, with highs mostly in the low to mid 60s. The subtropical ridge along the east coast will be further retrogressing westward across the area, setting up a blocking pattern with the Atlantic coast in warm and deep southwest flow for midweek, with temperatures climbing well above normal - into the mid 60s north to mid 70s southeast for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 710 PM Wednesday... 24 Hour TAF Period: A rarity lately but there are VFR conditions across the forecast area this evening. Don`t expect that to hold up overnight however as low ceilings will be the primary driver of aviation conditions. After 6z ceilings should drop to at least IFR levels in the Triad and MVFR levels elsewhere. A few LIFR ceilings are possible. Visibilities could also tank but again ceilings should be the main concern. Ceilings will improve to VFR by Thursday afternoon. Winds will be out of the south with some gusts of 15-20 kts possible during the afternoon. Most likely chances for perception will be across the north and west on Thursday afternoon. But areas to the southeast will remain mostly dry. Long term: A frontal will set up north of the area on Friday will move over central NC on Saturday and then another low pressure system will form and cross the area Saturday evening bringing chances for poor aviation conditions.
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&& .CLIMATE... RDU Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/15 | 82 1989 | 61 1989 02/16 | 77 1976 | 62 1990 GSO Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/15 | 78 1989 | 57 1949 02/16 | 76 1927 | 58 1990 FAY Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------- 02/15 | 81 1918 | 63 1918 02/16 | 82 1989 | 62 1935 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...Ellis CLIMATE...KC

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