Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 010503 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 100 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... WESTERN VIRGINIA... AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST INTO THE PIEDMONT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY... THE ISOLD SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHERN SCOTLAND CO WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR...LEAVING THE REST OF THE NIGHT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THAT A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AREAS...BUT FARTHER WEST AND NORTH...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL PRECLUDE THE RISK FOR SUCH FOG. THE COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP RESULT IN LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS OUR NW AND TRIAD ZONES...A LITTLE COOLER THAN WE`VE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. FARTHER EAST WHERE THE DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AND A FEW MORE CLOUDS...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 67-72 RANGE...WARMEST EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY... UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS AREA...EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WHILE A BROAD L/W TROUGH COVERS THE UPPER MID WEST EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND. THE L/W TROUGH WILL UNDERGO SOME MINOR AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A SERIES OF S/W ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WEST-NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SET-UP USUALLY RESULTS IN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN AND LITTLE IN THE MANNER OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE STALLED SFC FRONT IMMEDIATELY TO OUR SE WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY WAVERING A FEW TENS OF MILES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY. THUS...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A KFAY-KGSB LINE. OVER THE PIEDMONT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON THICKNESS AVERAGE A FEW METERS ABOVE NORMAL (1428-1435). THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NLY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FLOW WILL USHER/MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS...YIELDING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S-NEAR 60 IN THE PIEDMONT...AND 60-65 OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. SO...WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE HOT...THE DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS SHOULD HOPEFULLY MAKE THE HEAT A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 EAST-SE...AND 65-70 NW-LOWER 70S SE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY... THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT W/REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS /INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE ROCKIES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...A MORE ACTIVE /ENERGETIC/ PATTERN OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...ONE WOULD EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MID 90S) AND BELOW NORMAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AT/ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THAT ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/TIMING WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES...UPSTREAM CONVECTION (I.E. MCS ACTIVITY)...AND/OR CONVECTIVE REMNANTS (I.E. OUTFLOW/ MCV`S)...IT IS DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE FORECAST SPECIFICS (CONVECTIVE TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY) MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THAT STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (I.E. MODIFIED EML) ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE PRESENT IN A SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY NW FLOW ALOFT...AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE PRESENT AT SOME POINT IN THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME...PRIMARILY IF DIURNAL TIMING IS FAVORABLE W/REGARD TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH ONE BRIEF EXCEPTION. THE LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE AND ACCOMPANYING HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR FAY/RWI WILL BRING A RISK OF FOG/STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING... MAINLY 08Z-11Z. THE RISK IS LOW AT FAY... BUT BETTER AT RWI... WHERE THE RAP/HRRR SUGGEST A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LIFR CIGS AND IFR/LIFR VSBYS 08Z-11Z. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS AND TRENDS CLOSELY. RAIN CHANCES ARE NEAR ZERO AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI TODAY... AND ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AT MOST IS EXPECTED NEAR FAY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE LIGHT... GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS AND NEARLY CALM THROUGH DAYBREAK AND AGAIN STARTING THIS EVENING... VARIABLE IN DIRECTION EXCEPT MAINLY FROM THE WNW AT INT/GSO. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SUN MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK. THE FRONT ACROSS SE NC WILL DRIFT NW INTO THE PIEDMONT AND DISSIPATE MONDAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS HOLDS OVER THE REGION. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH TUE... RISING A BIT WED BUT REMAINING LOW. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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