Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 291808 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 205 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT STALLED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 140 PM MONDAY... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO IT. THE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC IS UNSEASONABLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST FORCING FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY AND DEW POINTS BEGIN CREEPING UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND THEY THEY COULD IMPACT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE... CENTRAL NC SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 4 TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT AND RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. -BLAES
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 205 PM MONDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY SHARPENS DURING THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL NC TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING AND THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER TROUGH AND BETTER FORCING SO WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY INCREASED POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE APPROACHING TROUGH PROVIDES INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE WANE AS THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE ARRIVING JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 88 TO 94 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -BLAES
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE TROUGH GRADUALLY RELAXES AND FLATTENS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING FROM 584DM ON TUESDAY TO 590DM BY EARLY MONDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY SCATTERED...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION. A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD BUT THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS SHOULD KEEP THE FRONTS CONFINED TO OUR NORTH IN THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 125 PM MONDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE KINT...KGSO AND KRDU TERMINALS. SOME SCT CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 6KFT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. FURTHER EAST...SCT- BKN CUMULUS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 6KFT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BECOME SCT THIS EVENING. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KFAY TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD STAY JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL VICINITY. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD AT THE KRWI TERMINAL. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KFAY AND KRWI. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP A BIT FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. LOOKING AHEAD...A PERIOD OF TWO OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTER DEVELOPS. -BLAES && ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...PWB/BLAES AVIATION...BLAES

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