Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 300706 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 300 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC AND VA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MID-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY... LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE AS LIGHT WIND AND MOIST AIRMASS PERSIST TRAPPED BENEATH AN H9 INVERSION. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERTOP OF A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. EARLIER CAM RUNS INDICATED THESE SHOWERS...WHICH ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN VA DURING THE REMAINING EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO LIFT AND/OR BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. THEN FOR THE REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS RIDGING BOTH SFC AND ALOFT REMAIN OVER OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE TODAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD. ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OUR EAST INVOF THE SEA BREEZE AND SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 5+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...LOW 90S FOR HIGHS AND AROUND 70 FOR LOWS TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISS VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE DAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTHWARD ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE...AND NEAR THE COAST INVOF THE SEA BREEZE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO PERSISTENT RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND LOWS AROUND 70 SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 257 AM SATURDAY... UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST REAL "EXTEND" TIME THIS SUMMER OVER NC. THEREFORE... ANY SURFACE FRONTS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING THIS FAR SOUTH... LIKELY STALLING OVER VA OR NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. WE WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST THAT DEPICTS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR HIGHS/LOWS... AND VERY NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR PM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THIS PATTERN) DURING SUMMER. EXPECT DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY 88-94 NW TO SANDHILLS WITH LOWS 68-73. THESE NUMBERS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A DAILY CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE LOWEST TUE (15-20 PERCENT)... THEN PICK UP SLIGHTLY WED-FRI (30-40) PERCENT.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE THANKS TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS...AND SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS/PWB NEAR TERM...NP SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...NP

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