Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 240635 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 235 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY... VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK WESTWARD OVER VA/NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE HEIGHTS RISE STEADILY OVER AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO SIT CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN... HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER TOP. A COUPLE SETS OF MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 3KM NAMRR CONUS NEST AND NCAR WRF ENSEMBLE PLUS THE WRF-HEAVY SREF MEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN... A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IN THE FAR SE (SAMPSON CO AND SE WAYNE CO). BUT THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE MUCH IF ANY BUOYANCY ALOFT... SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW... PLUS THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY... BUT LOCATIONS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER WITH COVERAGE UNDER 10%. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND FAIR SKIES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST AROUND 10 M BELOW NORMAL WILL BE OFFSET BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... YIELDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS... WITH HIGHS 80-84 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY... MORE OF THE SAME FOR MEMORIAL DAY... EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST... WHILE SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS NC. PW INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND 850 MB... AS WELL AS A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS EMANATING FROM SRN PLAINS CONVECTION. DRY WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED. MODELS HINT AT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SC AND SW NC LATE IN THE DAY... HOWEVER WEAK AND MEANDERING STEERING FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT THESE HOLD OUT OF OUR CWA. THE LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE EXPECTED SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 60S MON NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STRATUS ESPECIALLY WEST LATE AT NIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP A BIT FROM THE SSW AT 5-8 MPH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. -GIH && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY... TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH OFF OF THE COAST. IF ANYTHING HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS THAT DIURNAL CONVECTION EMBEDDED INTO THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW MAKES IT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER EAST. IN GENERAL...INSTABILITY INDICATES ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 10-20 KTS OVER THE TRIAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THIS OCCURRING IS FAIRLY LOW BECAUSE THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID...TO PICK A DAY THAT WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE LOW 80S TO POSSIBLY LOW 90S IN SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURES IS RELATED TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AS A STRONGER RIDGE WITH LESS CONVECTION WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPS WHEREAS IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...MORE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION COULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR 90S LATER IN THE WEEK AND RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGHS. STILL ABOVE NORMAL REGARDLESS. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE. SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10 KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/ STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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