Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 240721 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 321 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY. THE RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ADVECT A VERY WARM AIR MASS INTO OUR REGION...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A DRY... STABLE...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS TODAY INTO CENTRAL NC. UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND A LIGHT WINDS...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE AROUND 70 OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO THE MID 70S OVER THE WEST-SW. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE COOLEST DRIEST AIR MASS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD LOWER INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 50-LOWER 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY... A RETURN TO ABOVE/WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS PERIOD AS THE SFC HIGH OVER OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL/WLY. THE COMBINATION OF THE RETURN SWLY FLOW AT THE SW AND THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT A WARM AIR MASS...SENDING AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND 80 MONDAY...AND INTO THE MID 80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY...SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY-MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE COLUMN TUESDAY BUT STILL EXPECT A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT SWD TOWARD CENTRAL NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SW WINDS ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SECTIONS OF CENTRAL NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MEAN FLOW WILL CAUSE THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO DRIFT TO THE EAST-SE...OUTFLOW FROM THE SHOWERS/STORMS MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. STORMS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME AS BULK SFC-6M SHEAR WEAK AT BEST AND THE ATMOSPHERE PROJECTED TO BE WEAKLY UNSTABLE. A PERSISTENT SLY SFC FLOW AND PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 120 AM SUNDAY... A WARMER PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID AND LATE WEEK... THEN COOLER AND DRIER SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS A PORTION OF OUR REGION BY 12Z/WED. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WED. NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IS FAR REMOVED FROM OUR LATITUDE (CENTERED FROM CENTRAL CANADA - WITH A BREAK OFF PORTION INTO THE GREAT LAKES)... AND TOO WEAK TO REALLY "PUSH" THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD AID IN SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY WED AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WHEN COMBINED WITH HEATING THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN THE SPECIFICS... SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 80-85 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY... AND IN THE 70S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS 60-65. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY... THEN EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES (VA/MD) THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY. THE TIMING IS IN QUESTION (THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODELS). HOWEVER... THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT TO THE NORTH (1025+ MB)... IT WILL PROPEL THE FRONT DEEP INTO SC/GA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER LATE WEEK SHOULD CONSIST OF WARM AND HUMID THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 80S. HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE MAY LINGER (ESP IN THE EAST AND SOUTH FRIDAY) DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. HIGHS 80-86 NW TO SE. COOLER AND LESS HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. THE OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY... INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS OCCURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE TRACKS EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... WITH THE WARM FRONT RETURNING TO OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 110 AM SUNDAY... WHERE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...POCKETS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED...MAINLY OVER SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SOME OF THE THICKEST FOG WAS IN VICINITY OF KRWI. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 08Z IN THE KRWI VICINITY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SETTLE SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS INTO OUR REGION...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. THE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN SETTLE IN OUR VICINITY ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIATE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...WSS

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