Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 171025 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 625 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry high pressure will build into the Mid-atlantic today. The high pressure system will moderate and persist into the first part of the weekend. A cold front will approach the region late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 625 AM Tuesday... SCT to BKN cirrus clouds associated with a robust 95+ kt upper level jet continue to spread across the eastern Carolinas this morning. These clouds should persist through the morning before shifting east and thinning out during the afternoon. Have adjusted sky grids to better account for the cirrus. Otherwise, current forecast is in good shape. Previous forecast from 315 AM Tuesday... Water vapor imagery shows the upper level trough axis pushing southeast off the Carolina coast this morning. The latest surface analysis shows surface high pressure stretching from southwestern Pennsylvania southwest across the OH and TN valleys into western TN. Low-level north to northeasterly flow will continue to advect cooler and drier air into central NC today and tonight. The entrance region of a 100kt upper-level jet will lift northeast across the Carolinas resulting in some cirrus clouds today, especially across the eastern half of NC. Otherwise skies will be clear with bright sunshine. Highs today will range from near 62 across the northern Piedmont near the VA border to 67 across the southern Piedmont and Sandhills. Clear skies and decoupling winds will result in ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows tonight will generally range in the upper 30s to lower 40s with readings in the 30s most common in rural areas in the Piedmont. A few of the typically colder locations to the west of U.S. route 1 could have lows in the 35 to 38 range which may result in some patchy short-lived frost. Will include a mention of frost in the HWO but not issue an advisory due to the isolated nature of the frost and low confidence. -Blaes
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 AM Tuesday... Clear skies and fair weather is expected on Wednesday as the region remains under the control of surface high pressure. Upper-level heights rise a bit and the air mass moderates allowing high temperatures on Wednesday to increase about 5 degrees over today`s highs. Max temperatures on Wednesday will range from 68 north to 73 south. Clear skies on Wednesday evening could give way to some patchy stratus across the Coastal Plain toward daybreak Thursday as a low-level return flow develops. Guidance differs on the the extent of the moisture return so will just include scattered clouds at this time. Good radiational cooling under a warming air mass will result in an prominent surface inversion with variable surface temperatures by morning. Lows should moderate a few degrees over the previous morning`s lows with mins ranging from 39 to 47 degrees. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM Tuesday... Surface high pressure over the region will continue to dominate the weather late week into the weekend. The surface high is forecast to shift offshore by late Saturday into Sunday. Given this and a mid level ridge building over the area, expect generally clear/sunny skies Thursday and Friday. Mid level ridging will slowly shift to the east of the area during the weekend. This combined with surface high pressure moving offshore will lead to slowly increasing cloud cover during the weekend. The next surface front is expected to approach the area late weekend into Monday, with increasing chances of showers and isolated storms by Monday. High temps will continue a moderating trend late week, with highs expected to be in the mid to upper 70s. High temps will be similar for the weekend into early next week (though highs on Monday will be dependent on precip/timing of the next system), generally in the 70s, with perhaps a few locations making it into the low 80s. Low temps in the 40s to stat the period will moderate into the 50s, to near 60 by the end of the period. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 625 AM Tuesday... High confidence of VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period as surface high pressure builds into the region. A strong upper-level jet stream will bring periods of cirrus clouds across mainly eastern locations through early this afternoon, otherwise skies will be clear through Wednesday morning. Winds will remain northerly today at 6 to 10 kts with an occasional gust of 12-15kts, especially across the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain this afternoon. Winds will become very light to calm tonight. Looking beyond the 24 hour TAF period...Surface high pressure will persist across the area into the weekend. This will result in a period of generally fair weather with VFR conditions. One exception will be the potential for some patchy daybreak stratus across the Coastal Plain on Thursday and Saturday mornings. -Blaes
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...BLAES is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.