Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 180621 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 220 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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.A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VA THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO A POTENT BUT MOISTURE- STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 PM FRIDAY... THE LOW OVER NE CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST... WHILE THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN AND PIVOT EASTWARD OFF THE COAST. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THUS THE COLDEST AIR WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL NC UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY... SATURDAY...A S/W TRAVERSING THE EASTERN LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL PROPEL A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE MORNING...EXITING OUR REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW CLOUDS...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SFC WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY WITH GUSTS 14-17KTS PROBABLE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS INITIALLY NW BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL OFFSET INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF RALEIGH. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NW TO THE UPEPR 70S EXTREME SOUTH-SE. SATURDAY NIGHT...TAIL END OF NEW ENGLAND S/W WILL CROSS MID ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH. LOW LEVEL CAA MORE NOTICEABLE AS FLOW VEERS TO A NNW DIRECTION. MIN TEMPS LOW-MID 40S WITH UPEPR 40S FAR SOUTH-SE. -WSS A RATHER CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN NO CHANCE OF PRECIP AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY WILL MEAN HIGHS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S AREAWIDE AND LOW TO MID 60S AT THAT. THE SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEARLY OVERHEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUS MAINTAINING THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME NEARLY CALM. THESE GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S (WITH EVEN SOME MID 30S POSSIBLE IS THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCALES). -KRD && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY... ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONING INTO A CLOSED LOW BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE SOME... BUT WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER AS THE UPPER TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO VA OR NORTHERN NC. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (ALTHOUGH THERE IS A STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY). MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS THE LOW CUTTING OFF AND STAYING OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY WHEN IT SLOWLY STARTS TO OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT. THEN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY (AHEAD OF THE FRONT)...WITH MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES EXPECTED. THEN EXPECTING A COUPLE DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS (HIGHS MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S BUT MAYBE A FEW UPPER 50S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S...MAYBE SOME UPPER 30S)...WITH SOME MODERATION BY FRIDAY LIKELY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY... A PAIR OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC...ONE THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER THIS EVENING. INITIALLY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS...AS THE LEAD COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA BETWEEN 14-17Z. A PERIOD OF BROKEN 3000-3500 FT CLOUDINESS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS/INTO THE NW NC PIEDMONT (KINT/KGSO) THIS EVENING...WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE. WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL LESSEN AROUND SUNSET...THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CAUSE THEM TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE 7-12 KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS MAINLY AT TRIAD TERMINALS...BETWEEN 00-06Z. OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE-WED.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...WSS/KRD LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...MWS

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