Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 010621 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 220 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... WESTERN VIRGINIA... AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST INTO THE PIEDMONT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY... VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY... AS THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE NOW ANALYZED ACROSS SE NC FROM THE ERN SANDHILLS TO THE CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE WITH ONLY MINOR WAVERING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO WRN/NRN NC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND... ACCOMPANIED BY ANOMALOUSLY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MID LEVEL DRY/STABLE AIR THAT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA... WHERE LINGERING HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F) AND PW VALUES CLOSER TO NORMAL NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... OUTSIDE OF SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY... COVERAGE AND STRENGTH WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED BY THE LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT... LACK OF INSTABILITY... AND LIMITED MOISTURE OVERALL. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE AFTERNOON POP BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY ROUGHLY SE OF A LINE FROM LAURINBURG TO TARBORO. THICKNESSES AND TRENDS OF GUIDANCE INDICATE HIGHS OF 90-95 BOTH DAYS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S NW TO AROUND 70 SE. -GIH && .SHORT TERM / /... AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY... TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY... THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT W/REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS /INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE ROCKIES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...A MORE ACTIVE /ENERGETIC/ PATTERN OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...ONE WOULD EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MID 90S) AND BELOW NORMAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AT/ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THAT ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/TIMING WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES...UPSTREAM CONVECTION (I.E. MCS ACTIVITY)...AND/OR CONVECTIVE REMNANTS (I.E. OUTFLOW/ MCV`S)...IT IS DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE FORECAST SPECIFICS (CONVECTIVE TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY) MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THAT STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (I.E. MODIFIED EML) ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE PRESENT IN A SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY NW FLOW ALOFT...AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE PRESENT AT SOME POINT IN THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME...PRIMARILY IF DIURNAL TIMING IS FAVORABLE W/REGARD TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH ONE BRIEF EXCEPTION. THE LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE AND ACCOMPANYING HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR FAY/RWI WILL BRING A RISK OF FOG/STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING... MAINLY 08Z-11Z. THE RISK IS LOW AT FAY... BUT BETTER AT RWI... WHERE THE RAP/HRRR SUGGEST A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LIFR CIGS AND IFR/LIFR VSBYS 08Z-11Z. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS AND TRENDS CLOSELY. RAIN CHANCES ARE NEAR ZERO AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI TODAY... AND ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AT MOST IS EXPECTED NEAR FAY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE LIGHT... GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS AND NEARLY CALM THROUGH DAYBREAK AND AGAIN STARTING THIS EVENING... VARIABLE IN DIRECTION EXCEPT MAINLY FROM THE WNW AT INT/GSO. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SUN MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK. THE FRONT ACROSS SE NC WILL DRIFT NW INTO THE PIEDMONT AND DISSIPATE MONDAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS HOLDS OVER THE REGION. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH TUE... RISING A BIT WED BUT REMAINING LOW. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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