Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 151050 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 650 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will settle over the region Friday and persist through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 650 AM Friday... Heights aloft will increase over the area today as sheared upper remnants of IRMA lift NE away from the area. At the surface, a diffuse trough over the Carolina Piedmont will shift eastward towards the coast as weak sfc high pressure nudges in from the northwest. Once the morning fog disperses, sunny skies will give way to a rather extensive flat cu field, capped by the strong mid-level inversion. Can`t rule out some afternoon sprinkles/isolated showers within these cumulus clouds, otherwise it will be remain dry. With no airmass change, we will see similar afternoon highs as the past 2 days, ranging from near 80 NW to mid 80s SE. Lows tonight in the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Friday... The models indicate a weak mid-upper level low, one embedded within a lingering positive-tilt trough/shear axis over the sern US, may briefly close off over SC by late Sat, then drift offshore by Sun. This low is more pronounced in model guidance today; and the associated steering/"capturing" influence may result in a closer approach to middle Atlantic coast by Jose by early next week. Meanwhile, a sub-tropical ridge initially over the Caribbean will retrograde wwd into the GOM, then expand newd across the MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a lee trough within a very weak MSLP pattern east of the Appalachians will get overwhelmed by both high pressure over the OH Valley, and more so the influential cyclonic flow around Tropical Cyclone Jose, such that light nly low level flow and generally dry and warm conditions will result over NC through the weekend. The exception will a slight chance of a shallow shower over the Coastal P lain each afternoon, capped by a relatively stout capping inversion around 10 thsd ft per bufr forecast soundings. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 AM Friday... While the forecast track of Jose has shifted somewhat wwd, the official track remains offshore. Nonetheless, moisture in nly flow on the west side of Jose will likely result in enhanced stratocumulus over cntl and particularly ern NC through early next week, before Jose lifts away and loses influence. This period will otherwise be generally dry and warm beneath and immediately downstream of the sub-tropical ridge forecast to remain just west of the cntl and srn Appalachians. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 648 AM Friday... 24-Hour TAF period: Any fog and/or stratus will dissipate between 12 to 15z with only isolated shower/sprinkles expected this afternoon. Light northerly or variable winds are expected through the period. Areas of fog are possible once again tonight/early Saturday morning. Looking ahead: Aside from some early morning/predawn fog, weak high pressure at the surface and aloft will result in dry VFR conditions through early next week.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...CBL

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