Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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279 FXUS62 KRAH 081159 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 335 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 227 AM MONDAY... ONE STRONG SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PULLING WELL OUT TO SEA TODAY WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE THE CLASSIC "COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIPITATION" AS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD DRY AIR LAGGING SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENDS. THE LATEST MODELS AND TRENDS OF THE MODELS IN RECENT RUNS SUPPORT THIS FORECAST; THEREFORE...IT IS OF HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WVA THROUGH VA INSTEAD OF THIS FAR SOUTH. WE WILL BE LEFT IN THE MILD SECTOR WITH SW FLOW DURING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WHICH MEANS OURS WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS. FOR TODAY... INCREASING CLOUDINESS. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE SE. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY THE SW BREEZE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER VA THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS LARGELY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER... SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAY GET WRUNG OUT AS SNOW SHOWERS OR PATCHY FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH. AT THE CURRENT TIME... IT APPEARS THAT A QUICK DUSTING OR TRACE AMOUNTS WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR AREAS AROUND ROXBORO TO ROCKY MOUNT TO THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE... THE COLD DRY ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY END THE SHOWER THREAT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH. LOWS WITH CAA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 25- 30 RANGE NW... AND LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 227 AM MONDAY... BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE VERY COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PIVOT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND AFTERNOON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH MOISTURE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE... THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW... TO NEAR 50 SE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING NW WINDS. LOWS GENERALLY 20-25 NW TO 25-28 SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 335 AM MONDAY... ...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND... WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: CORE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH(H5ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT ~15C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES 1240-1245M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70 METERS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CANADA...ANCHORED BY A STRONG VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...LEADS TO RENEWED AMPLIFICATION OF THE COLD EASTERN US TROUGH WITH EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...ONE FEATURE WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER MID-WEEK ARCTIC INTRUSION WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND INTRUSION WITH H8 PROGGED TO BE IN THE -20TO -25C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TANKING TO 1210-1215M. IF THESE INCREDIBLY COLD THICKNESSES VERIFY...HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 700 AM MONDAY... FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...BADGETT

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