Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 262306 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 706 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY... THROUGH TONIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HEIGHT RISES /WARM ADVECTION/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY. THE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT IN CENTRAL NC WILL GRADUALLY RELAX SUPPORTING THE NORTHWEST BREEZE AT 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON... THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT... THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL NC/VA. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS ATTENDANT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS 40-45 WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS (PER THE COLDER MET STATISTICAL GUIDANCE). MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...PROGRESSING SLOWLY TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY 12Z TUE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN NC MON AFTERNOON BEFORE PROGRESSING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM ADVECTION VIA A WSW FLOW ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL (H925-H85) RIDGE CENTERED NEAR SAVANNAH GA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. -VINCENT && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY... A WARM AND DRY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY PUSHES TO OUR EAST DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE WITH A GOOD SW RETURN FLOW EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND NEARLY FULL SUN AND SW FLOW SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR THE WARMEST MOS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE (MES). THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH THAT WAA SHOULD BEGIN BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILDER THAN AVERAGE. IN ADDITION... INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO DEW POINTS IN THE 50S... KEEPING IT MILDER AS WELL. THE COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. A VERY NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL LIFT AND MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED WITH LIGHT QPF. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN A NARROW AXIS WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. THE CAA IS EXPECTED TO BE LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80 IN THE SE. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS AND GOOD MIXING WITH CAA (WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE) WILL PRECLUDE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CAA SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 235 AM SUNDAY... ...FIRST SIGNIFICANT FROSTS OF THE FALL SEASON POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE EXPECTED AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND... THE ENSEMBLES DO INDICATE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AND COOL DOWN FOR OUR REGION. THE EC AND EC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEPER TROUGH WITH CORRESPONDING COLDER AIR DRIVING DEEP INTO OUR REGION... THERE CONTINUED TO BE MUCH WEAKER SOLUTIONS NOTED AS WELL. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THIS FRONT. HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... A SECONDARY PUSH OF DRIER AND CHILLIER AIR IS EXPECTED WITH THE LEADING PUSH TO SURGE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD MIXING AND CAA SHOULD HOLD LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS SHOULD BRING CLEAR SKIES AND PROGRESSIVELY LIGHTER WINDS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE LOWS DEEP INTO THE 30S... WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST (SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING SEASON) ANTICIPATED IN THE PIEDMONT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SAT-SUN... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 705 PM SUNDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MAINLY SSW MONDAY AT ROUGHLY 3-6 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. -KC LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WED...AND A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WED/WED NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY THU AND PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -VINCENT
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...PWB LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...KC/VINCENT

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