Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 180542 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 142 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure over the Mid-atlantic will extend across the region into the weekend. A cold front will approach the area from the west early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 920 PM Tuesday... Absolutely ideal radiational cooling conditions this evening are paying dividends with the temperatures so far as some low to mid 40s are already showing up in the rural areas. The 00z observed sounding was incredibly dry this evening and GSO is still exhibiting a 10 degree surface dewpoint depression. That dryness may mitigate any frost potential overnight although temperatures should get cold enough especially in northern and western rural areas. As a result have put patchy frost in the forecast but with low confidence and the short lived nature of the event, have continued to the decision to hold off on a frost advisory. Regardless, if you have unusually susceptible plants, covering them would be a good idea. Lows will bottom out in the upper 30s to low 40s in most locations with a few mid 30s scattered in. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... As of 140 PM Tuesday... Basically a temperature forecast with gradual airmass moderation as center of surface high shifts east from the lee of the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning to off the Mid- Atlantic Coast Wednesday afternoon/evening. Highs Wednesday a good 5 degrees warmer than Tuesday, ranging from upper 60s to lower 70s. A low-amplitude shortwave trough approaching the area late Wednesday night may produce some patchy thin cirrus, but otherwise prove to be inconsequential. Lows 40 to 48. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 255 PM Tuesday... High pressure will dominate through the weekend, with a very gradual warming trend through the period. Highs will be mostly in the mid to upper 70s, with perhaps some lower 80s Saturday and Sunday. Mins will be mostly in the mid 40s Friday morning warming to the upper 40s to lower 50s by Sunday morning. The high pressure will shift offshore and we have a favorable return flow setting up ahead of our next frontal passage. Timing will be a key player early next week, as an upper trof moving east across the southern Midwest will cut off over the gulf states, assisting in providing strong moisture advection ahead of associated surface cold front. The chance of showers will increase by later Monday, with even better chances on tap for Monday night into Tuesday. Slightly delayed timing would be beneficial, as it would allow us to build up stronger instability to invigorate convection ahead of the front on Tuesday. Highs Monday will reach the mid and upper 70s, while Tuesday`s highs will be dependent on frontal passage...probably see 70s again, but could see cold air advection halt the morning warmup early in the northeast. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 AM Wednesday... High confidence of VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period. Surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft will result in generally clear skies and fair weather. Light northeast to easterly surface winds will range between 4 and 8kts today with very light to calm winds expected early this morning and again tonight. Looking beyond the 24-hour TAF period, surface high pressure will persist across the region into the weekend. Some patchy stratus or fog is possible across the Coastal Plain impacting the KFAY/KRWI around and just prior to daybreak on Thursday and possibly Friday mornings. -Blaes && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...RE SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...BLAES is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.