Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 290707 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 307 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY... MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY... MOST TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS OF THIS WRITING UNDER A CLEAR SKY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY WITH THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER 0.2 INCH AND FORECAST K INDICES THROUGH THE DAY WELL NEGATIVE. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH SOME THIN UPSTREAM CIRRUS POSSIBLE LATE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK DURING THE DAY...WITH A FEW MODEST GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MAINLY WEST OF U.S. 1 AND TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER AND THE TRIAD. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BELOW GUIDANCE...BUT WITH GOOD SUN AND A BACKING WIND WILL FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY A BLEND OR LEANING TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV...FOR MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...COOLEST IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THICKNESSES ARE LOWER...AND HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE A COUPLE OF UPPER 50S MAY OCCUR.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY... THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES REGARDING THE TIMING OF MOISTURE AND LIFT LATE TONIGHT AND MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO...BUT A REVIEW OF THE BUFR SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THE MAIN WINDOW OF ANY PRECIPITATION LIES FROM ABOUT 10Z TO 16Z OR SO. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110KT 300MB JET AND A 70KT 500MB JET MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT. 850MB THETA-E RIDGING IS PRESENT AS WELL BY ABOUT 12Z MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY QUICK TROUGHING MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND NAM QPF ALONG WITH OUTPUT FROM THE NCEP ARW SUGGESTS A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE POPS ARE NEAR OR AT CATEGORICAL...AND FOR THIS FORECAST WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY WITH THOSE CHANCES FALLING QUICKLY AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS APPEAR TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER AND MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST 2KM DOES NOT REGISTER WITH LIFTED INDICES ABOVE 0C. ALSO...PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF LIQUID...IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE FREEZING DEPTH ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS. ANTICIPATE ABOUT A TENTH-INCH OF QPF IN GENERAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S BEFORE STABILIZING AND POSSIBLY RISING A TOUCH LATE AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ALOFT. THERE COULD BE AN HOUR OR SO OF TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 35 PARTICULARLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT WITH SOME INCREASING WIND AND DRY AIR NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY DURATION FOR ANY FROST...ESPECIALLY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE THE WIND WILL BE LIGHTER A LITTLE LONGER. THE COLD FRONT LIKELY DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL LATE MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE THEN PROVIDED DIMINISHING CLOUDS TAKE PLACE AS ANTICIPATED. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND THAT WILL BE THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 37 TO 41.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY... TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...THEN A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST-FROPA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE LOW IMPACT SEASONABLE WEATHER BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS 65-70 AND LOWS 40-45. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS ON THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY THURSDAY WILL SHIFT EAST AND AS THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SW...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS WAA ENSUES. THE ECMWF IS WETTER AND PRODUCES SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOC WITH THE WAA...WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE WAVE AND IS DRIER. MODELS DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...REGARDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT. GFS IS FASTER AND BRINGS THE FRONT INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING...BY LATE DAY FRIDAY. THERES STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR TIMING DIFFERENCES TO BE WORKED OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE TAKE-AWAY SHOULD BE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK. LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME - HIGHS IN 70S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10KT OR LESS...WITH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND MAINLY TOWARD THE TRIAD. BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...A BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHWEST VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PREDOMINANT CEILING TYPE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LOW MVFR. CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR AGAIN WEST-TO-EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY BEHIND THE BAND OF SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE...WITH A CURRENT LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH A ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND A LITTLE BETTER PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASES. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH ARE LISTED BELOW. RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GSO 20-1966 RDU 20-1966 FAY 24-1982 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ028-042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...DJF SHORT TERM...DJF LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...DJF CLIMATE...RAH

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