Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 301951 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 345 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...The remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie will slowly meander northeast along the Carolina coast to a position near Cape Hatteras by Thursday. A cold front will approach from the west late in the work week as the remnants of Bonnie finally move offshore. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... As of 315 PM Monday... Latest surface analysis shows the remnants of Bonnie centered just west of Myrtle Beach with an inverted surface trough extending northeast of the center across the NC Coastal Plain. The surface boundary was located near or just a little west of Interstate 95 with an east to southerly flow and dew points in the lower 70s east of the trough and a northeast flow with dew points in the mid to upper 60s west of the boundary. The visible satellite today shows a transition from a more stable cloud pattern this morning to a largely convective depiction as 18z MLCAPE values range from 500- 1000 J/KG across central NC. Regional radar shows widespread showers and thunderstorms along the NC coast associated with a plume of deep moisture while more scattered showers along with a few thunderstorms were slowly moving across the Coastal Plain, Sandhills and eastern Piedmont. This convection is largely diurnally forced with an enhanced western broken line or edge associated with 925- 850 hPa convergence and perhaps some weak upglide into the cool side the surface boundary. Convection allowing models handle this trend reasonably well although they have underdone the convective coverage in the east. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to lift northwest and north into central NC during the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The greatest convective coverage will be located near and east of U.S. 1 with precipitation chances and amounts significantly diminishing to the west across the western Piedmont where the low level flow is more divergent. Convection today should be efficient rain producers again which combined with slow storm motion will lead to quick accumulations of rain and a localized flooding concern, especially in locations which had significant rain yesterday. The convection should diminish in coverage and intensity during the course of the evening with the loss of heating. Only isolated showers are expected overnight, again mainly from U.S. east. Areas of fog are likely to redevelop tonight with lows in the mid to upper 60s. -blaes && .SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Tuesday night/... As of 345 PM Monday... Not a lot of change in conditions are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night as the remnant low of Bonnie slowly meanders up the Carolina coast. While the upper level trough across the carolinas lifts somewhat on Tuesday and Tuesday night, the trough axis shifts only ever so slightly east. The air mass across the region changes very little with deep moisture persisting as precipitable water values at or above 1.5 inches across much of the RAH CWA. Accordingly, sensible weather conditions on Tuesday should be similar to those of today with areas of morning stratus and fog giving way to improving conditions with some breaks of sunshine, especially in the western and southern Piedmont. Primarily diurnally forced convection should redevelop on Tuesday, with perhaps a subtly decrease in coverage with convection most widespread during the afternoon and early evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be most numerous across the northeast Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. Highs in the low-mid 80s, coolest east where clouds should be thickest with greater shower coverage. Lows mostly in the mid 60s. -blaes && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/... As of 345 PM Monday... A rather unsettled period expected as the remnants of Bonnie slowly drift up the NC coast on Wednesday and Thursday. The remnant surface low should move offshore on Friday as the western Atlantic ridge weakens and an initial northern stream short wave trough moves across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday and an associated cold front drops into the Mid Atlantic. The result will be a continuation of a fair amount of cloudiness and the threat of mainly afternoon or evening scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances should decrease a bit on Wednesday into early Thursday before ramping up again on Friday as the cold front approaches. It will be muggy with highs in the lower to mid 80s on Wednesday warming into the mid to upper 80s by Friday. Morning lows will range in the mid to upper 60s. Forecast confidence decreases for the end of the period as the southern extent of the developing trough in the Plains closes off in Texas on Friday into Saturday as the northern portion of the trough deepens and slowly moves east over the weekend into Monday. A cold front will linger across the area over the weekend before possibly being pushed offshore on Monday. This will result in increasing rain chances over the weekend with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the 60s. -blaes && .AVIATION /18Z Monday through Friday/... As of 215 PM Monday... Periods of adverse aviation conditions are expected across central NC this afternoon and especially tonight. The air mass across NC this afternoon is increasingly moist and unstable from west to east as a plume of deep moisture extends into eastern NC. Widespread LIFR and IFR conditions early this morning in stratus and fog have improved to a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will become more numerous this afternoon and lift northwest and north in the circulation associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie. The greatest convective coverage along with a possible thunderstorm is expected during the mid to late afternoon near and especially east of U.S. 1 at the KFAY/KRWI/KRDU terminals where a period of MVFR to IFR vsbys and cigs are possible. The coverage and intensity of the shower and thunderstorms will slowly decrease during the evening with precip chances low enough overnight to exclude a mention in the TAF. Expect low stratus and fog to develop again overnight, mainly after midnight with the greatest confidence of IFR to possibly LIFR cigs and vsbys across the eastern Piedmont and Sandhills including KRWI/KRDU/KFAY with slightly better conditions in the Triad at KINT/KGSO. Looking beyond 18Z Tuesday: Improving sky conditions are expected on Tuesday as stratus lifts during the day with additional showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and early evening Tuesday. Another period of sub-VFR conditions in fog/stratus expected Tuesday night. A somewhat unsettled period of weather is expected for Wednesday through Friday with a slight decrease in convective coverage on Wednesday into early Thursday before increasing again as a cold front approaches late Thursday into Friday. -blaes && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...blaes NEAR TERM...blaes SHORT TERM...blaes LONG TERM...blaes AVIATION...blaes is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.