Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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701 FXUS62 KRAH 120532 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 130 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level disturbances will pass over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas through the weekend, as a warm and humid airmass holds in place. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 135 PM Friday... * Widely scattered showers and storms late this afternoon, far less than what has been seen as of late * Near normal overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Early afternoon satellite imagery reveals stubbornly persistent low cloud cover across portions of central NC. While all of the morning fog has long since mixed out, areas along and south of US-64 remain mostly cloudy while sky cover to the north is relatively limited. This made for a rather atypical temperature distribution across the area earlier this morning with the Triad actually seeing the warmest temperatures in the CWA. This has since normalized a bit with temps area-wide in the mid 80s. The exception remains the Sandhills where temps remain in the upper 70s/around 80 as of 1pm. Despite the varying amounts of cloud cover across the area, dewpoints are relatively uniform in the low to mid 70s. The plume of elevated PW`s has shifted east, with widespread values no longer in the 2 to 2.25 inch range across central NC. Rather, PW`s range from about 1.5 inches in the western Piedmont to around 1.9 inches across the southern Coastal Plain. The weak wave responsible for Thursday`s shower and thunderstorm activity has shifted offshore, and WV imagery reveals an abundance of mid level dry air and shortwave ridging building into the Mid Atlantic (in response to a deepening trough over MN/IA). While it`s hard to completely rule out all shower/thunderstorm activity today, the odds certainly seem in favor of a quieter, less convectively active afternoon across the region. 00Z and 12Z HREF both indicated some widely scattered activity later this afternoon, but with no clear focal area for development. If anything, perhaps the lingering cloud cover across the area will serve up some weak differential heating boundaries upon which a few showers and storms could develop. A small cluster of storms (albeit weak) has formed in eastern Guilford Co, perhaps on the edge of where we saw fog earlier today. Either way, I`ll hang onto some very low PoPs in the 10-20 percent range through 00Z, then back down below 10 percent for the evening/overnight hours. Should any showers/storms develop, they`ll be capable of producing brief periods of heavy rain but widespread flooding shouldn`t be a concern given limited areal coverage. In terms of temps tonight, look for lows to bottom out in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 135 PM Friday... * Similar airmass in place across the region on Saturday, with scattered showers and storms expected * Temperatures reaching the mid 90s Saturday afternoon Not much change in the atmosphere for Saturday, with a nearly identical distribution of PW`s across the region (1.5" NW, close to 2" SE). Weak Piedmont troughing at the surface in response to weak northwesterly flow aloft should be a trigger for afternoon shower and thunderstorm development across the area tomorrow, although there will still be an abundance of dry air in the mid levels to overcome. With plenty of MLCAPE on offer around 2000-2500 J/KG and sufficient moisture in place, one would expect at least some thunderstorm development although they should be short lived given weak steering flow. 12Z HREF confirms the idea of more areal coverage of showers and storms compared to today, but still a far cry from earlier this week. PoPs will range from 20-40 percent tomorrow, peaking from 20Z-00Z, then tailing off after sunset. Temps on Saturday should be on par with today`s, with highs in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Given the continued period of dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, look for afternoon heat indices to eclipse 100 degrees in many locations although they should fall short of heat advisory levels. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 135 PM Friday... * Daily diurnal showers and storms return, with highest confidence in the Mon to Wed time frame * Heat and humidity much of the week, with heat indices highest Sun and Mon in the upper 90s to lower 100s. After a brief reprieve in our storm chances, it would appear that an uptick in scattered showers and storms are in the offing for the long term. A cold front and attendant trough over the Great Lakes to OH valley region Sun will gradually slide south and east into the middle of next week. The front will not make it through, dying out somewhere near central/southern VA. But the proximity of the trough/front being close to central NC, along with precipitable water values increasing once again to 2 to 2.25 inches, will favor increasing shower and storm chances each afternoon and evening Mon into Wed. After Wed, the Bermuda high will extend its influence, with persistent warm and moist southerly flow. With the absence of any large-scale forcing these days, storm chances may lessen but will still be above climo with the moist and unstable airmass in place. A late-week cold front sometime Fri-Sat will also try to approach, which should keep rain chances on the higher end. Any storms over saturated soils will risk the potential for flash flooding, especially over the Piedmont. As for temperatures, it appears warmest Sun and Mon in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices during this time will range from the upper 90s to lower 100s. A few locales in the Triangle and Sandhills region could briefly reach heat advisory criteria of 105, but will let later forecast shifts evaluate further. Rain chances being high around the middle of the week will keep temps warm and muggy but lower in the 80s to near 90, before warming back up Fri in the lower 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Saturday... VFR conditions are expected for much of the overnight hours. However, with light winds in the predawn hours patchy low stratus and fog could develop across the region. A few hours of sub-VFR conditions are possible at all TAF sites but confidence is on the lower side. If any fog/low stratus does develop expect it to lift shortly after 12z. VFR conditions will once again dominate much of the day today with increased chance of showers/storms in the afternoon through early evening. Storms are expected to be isolated to scattered and expected to end between 00z-02z. After which light winds and VFR conditions will return for the overnight hours. Looking beyond 06z Sun, the overall pattern will remain largely unchanged into the middle of next week, with a risk for early- morning sub-VFR fog/stratus, and a chance for showers and storms each afternoon into the evening.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Leins SHORT TERM...Leins LONG TERM...Kren AVIATION...CA/Hartfield