Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251846 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 245 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move into northern South Carolina and stall this evening and overnight. High pressure will build south into our region from New England tonight. The front will return north as a warm front late Monday as a cold front approaches from the west.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 245 PM Sunday... Surface high pressure (1025+ MB) extended from NY state southward into NC this afternoon. The high pressure was building south into North Carolina, behind a cold front that was pushing into southern sections of the state. The front separated two seasons, with summer to the south and fall to the north. There were plenty of stratus over VA into central NC in the cool and moist NE flow behind the front, where temperatures were in the lower to mid 70s. Sunshine was noted south of the front over SC into far southern NC where temperatures were in the 80s. There has been some dissolving of the stratus over the southwest Piedmont and that trend will continue to near sunset. However, a dense overcast will likely to hold especially along and north and east of Interstate 40 from the Triad to Raleigh to Clinton with a few thin spots through sunset. Expect a thickening and lowering of the cloudiness over the Piedmont overnight. Lows generally from 60 north into the mid 60s south. Only a few patchy areas of light drizzle are expected in the western Piedmont with only trace amounts of QPF.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 PM Sunday... Monday will be a murky day as hybrid CAD is expected to develop over the western Piedmont as a warm/moist advection pattern sets up between the surface and 850 mb. This occurs as the low level ridge axis begins to shift east and the next cold front approaches the Appalachians from the west. Expect the moisture profile further increase though the day, except for the far eastern zones were some drying will linger with the ridging. As a mid level trough and the cold front approach the mountains late, the associated lift and upslope easterly flow generate areas of rain. This will aid in locking in the hybrid CAD over the damming region. This pattern will persist overnight with rain likely in the west, spreading east into the rest of central NC overnight. We will cap of POP in the high chance category in the SE Coastal Plain through 12Z/Tue as they will be farther away from the approaching trough and cold front through then. Highs Monday from the lower 70s NW to mid 80s south. Lows Monday night 65-70. QFP of 0.25 to 0.50 forecast for the NW with less than 0.10 in the SE through 12Z/Tue.
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&& .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... As of 310 AM Sunday... A cold front will make its way through the state on Tuesday as the parent low pressure system becomes stacked over the Great Lakes. At this point it looks like there will be hardly any punch at all with this system and thus expect most of the precipitation to be in the form of convective showers with isolated thunder possible Tuesday afternoon, particularly across the south but otherwise instability is lacking. The effects on temperature will not be seen until Wednesday and beyond so expect highs on Tuesday near 80 degrees with upper 70s across the north. The real curiosities in the long term center around how the stacked low will evolve over time. The GFS solution has the low remaining embedded in the upper level flow and gradually moves eastward keeping the end of the week dry. The ecmwf solution is much different and is beginning to gain a little consistency with the upper low cutting off from the mean flow and dropping south along the Appalachians and hovering there for several days. This would greatly increase precipitation chances over our area for the end of the week and needs to be watched because the latest run of the GFS is showing a bit of a trend toward that upper low dropping further south although it has not cut it off yet. For now will keep the forecast dry outside of slight chances for showers across the east on Thursday but if this trend in the forecast continues, then pops will need to be increased significantly for the end of the week. Temperatures will drop back into the mid 70s for highs for the rest of the week with lows in the middle 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 PM Sunday... IFR CIGS continue over a portion of the region this afternoon, with the forecast of MVFR CIGS in the KFAY to KRWI terminals to develop through the late afternoon. Overnight, IFR CIGS are expected to remain or redevelop between 02Z-06Z. VSBYS should fall into the MVFR range, possibly IFR with patchy drizzle from KRDU to KINT late tonight. Looking beyond 00Z/TUE, CIGS again will lower with areas of rain and fog in the west, with an increasing chance of rain and fog in the east. IFR to MVFR CIGS and VSBYS are expected Monday night into Tuesday. Conditions are expected to improve Wednesday and Thursday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...Badgett

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