Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 020657 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 258 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 258 AM WEDNESDAY... TODAY AND TONIGHT... MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A DECK OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY...CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AND BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK HEIGHTS FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODERATELY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. THE ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK AND ONSET OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS MORNING SHOULD SEND TEMPS SOARING WELL INTO THE 80S- AROUND 90 BY MID DAY WITH LOW-MID 90S COMMON BY MID AFTERNOON. IF CLOUDS OCCUR A COUPLE HOURS SOONER ACROSS THE NORTH HALF...THEN MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. FEEL FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT MANY PLACES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL BE CLOSE TO 95 DEGREES. ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY WANE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS UNDERGOES ITS NORMAL NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO 06Z THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THE COASTAL PLAIN UP TO SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS 67- 73. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 258 AM WEDNESDAY... WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THURSDAY MORNING. HEATING OF THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE...THOUGH WEAKER THAN THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TONIGHT...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN A SHOWER OR TWO BUT FEEL THAT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO DAY...90-95 DEGREES...WITH MIN TEMPS THU NIGHT 67-72. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY... A GENERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL HELP DRIVE SOME OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BUT IN GENERAL A LONG TERM FORECAST WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY. AFTER THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY THERE IS NOT A LOT OF FACTORS SUPPORTING THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION OVER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION KEEPING US DRY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING...PROVIDING SOME FORCING FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES. FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 105 AM WEDNESDAY... POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z- 11Z ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS OF CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION WILL BE SPARKED BY A SEWD MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL CROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AT ANY ONE TAF SITES IS FAIRLY LOW BUT WILL MENTION VICINITY SHOWER IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR KRDU AND KRWI EARLY THIS EVENING. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK SUGGEST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY CAUSE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...WSS

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