Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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377 FXUS62 KRAH 230125 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 925 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A mid to upper level trough will linger over the Carolinas through Sat. Otherwise, high pressure centered over the Great Lakes and northern Middle Atlantic states will extend south into our region through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 925 PM Friday... A few clouds moving through the CWA this evening will give way to clear skies later tonight. This could result in some mainly MVFR fog overnight particularly in the northeastern quadrant of the forecast area. Light winds will prevail and radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop into the low to middle 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Friday... The upper ridge building to our NW is expected to edge east then down the Atlantic coast Saturday into Saturday night. Will be warm and dry tomorrow with highs similar to today...85-90. A modest surge of reinforcing dry air is expected tomorrow night as the ridging surges south, with mins falling a couple of degrees, from 60 to 65. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 240 PM Friday... The main weather story for the long term is the subtle westward shift in the models and official NHC track regarding Maria for the middle of next week. Despite this westward shift, the system is still forecast to be far enough to our east to preclude any significant impacts on our weather other than a uptick in cloudiness across our eastern zones, and an uptick the breeze, from late Tuesday through early Thursday. Of course that can change if the westward trend continues. In fact, if the forecast track shifts much more westward with subsequent runs, then we`ll have to do a notable increase in our PoPs and wind; but for now, looks like the weather with Maria should stay mostly to our east. Otherwise, the rest of the long term period is dry with high pressure influencing our weather before Maria approach, then dry again in the wake of Maria as the storm moves northeastward away from the Mid-Atlantic coast. Above normal temps continue in the long term. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 715 PM Friday... High pressure ridging south into NC will result in mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period, although patchy fog will be possible late tonight-early Sat morning, mainly at RWI. Outlook: There is a chance of sub-VFR conditions mainly at eastern TAF sites early to mid next week, when moist northerly flow on the west side of Tropical Cyclone Maria will likely overspread ern NC. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...mlm LONG TERM...nmp AVIATION...MWS

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