Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 260522 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1222 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Colder high pressure will move in from the west tonight, and linger through Sunday night, before moving offshore Monday. A warm front will approach from the south late Monday. && NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 PM SATURDAY... Current observations tell much of the story this evening as the cold front has pushed through much of the forecast area leaving in its wake, gusty northwesterly winds and a very dry airmass. Dewpoints at this hour in the teens in the Triad with upper 20s to low 30s in the southeastern counties. This dry airmass will result in clear skies and very dry conditions at the surface as well, leaving zero chance for any kind of fog or low stratus overnight and into Sunday morning. While it is still in the 50s and 60s across the area, a combination of clear and dry conditions along with cold air advection will bring temperatures down into the 30s for lows with temperatures close to freezing in the Triad. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM SATURDAY... Flow aloft will become quasi-zonal flow in the wake of upper trough exiting the Mid-Atlantic region. High pressure building into the area from the west will quickly move offshore late Sunday night, but will maintain east to west surface ridging into Monday. This means that the cooler-more seasonable air will not stay around very long. Highs ranging from from mid 50s NW to around 60 SE. Sheared shortwave energy ejecting eastward across the Lower MS Valley in the progressive low-amplitude flow will bring an increase in high clouds late Sunday night/early morning and could temper low temps Sunday night. Lows in the 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM Saturday... After the brief return to near normal high temperatures on Sunday, we will have a progressive warmup back into the 70s through midweek as high pressure moves offshore and southwest flow ensues. Moisture will be on the rise, as will cloud coverage and the chance of rain through the midweek period. Showers are expected as early as Monday night in the west as a weak upper disturbance lifts northeast in prevailing southwest flow aloft. It`s hard to find a really confident feature that might enhance coverage Tuesday night through Wednesday but we will be in the warm moist airmass with potential for any passing weak impulse to kick off spotty showers. Will maintain generally uniform low chance PoPs across the area pending later model resolution of these impulses. Temps will be rebounding on Monday into the 60s...with low to mid 70s on Tuesday and mid to upper 70s on Wednesday. A cold front driven by a rather strong shortwave moving into the Ohio valley will provide a focus for a line of convection Wednesday night in the west...with the convection moving east rapidly and offshore by Thursday evening. The convection will be east of central NC by early afternoon. This timing is not ideal to benefit from maximized diurnal instability, but strong upper diffluence and the low level convergence with a 50+ knot h85 jet will be sufficient for inclusion of at least a modest chance of thunderstorms at this point. Highs Thursday will be hampered by the onset of cold air advection fairly early in the day, with western areas topping out in the upper 50s...while the southeast might see some mid 60s. Dry weather and a cooler airmass will be in place Friday and Saturday, with highs both days mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1220 AM Sunday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR will continue for the 24 hour TAF period, high confidence, as surface high pressure moves across the region. This will result in decreasing winds speeds early this morning out of the northwest, generally into the 5 to 10 kt range, with clear skies. Northwesterly winds in the 6 to 11 kt range to start the day (with possibly a few wind gusts into the teens during the morning hours) will become light and variable by mid to late afternoon into the evening, with mostly sunny/mostly clear skies expected (only some high thin clouds possible). Outlook: High pressure will move east and offshore Sun night, which will bring VFR conditions through Mon. The next chance for sub-VFR conditions will be Mon night, lasting through Tue night and perhaps into Wed, as southwest flow brings in low level moisture and an increased risk for showers, as well low stratus and fog, especially dusk through dawn. A cold front passage late Wed night or early Thu will bring a better chance for showers then.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...BSD/Hartfield

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