Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 250711 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY... FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: CONTINUED DRY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL PUSH SE OFF THE SC/GA COAST THIS MORNING... LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHES IN FROM THE SW... WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN ALSO FROM THE SW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS INCLUDING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORT DEEP DRY AIR OVER NC TODAY WITH STABLE MID LEVELS. PLENTIFUL SUN AND THICKNESSES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS OF 72-76. STRONG VORTICITY DIVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BASE OF A LOW CROSSING SE CANADA WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT (NOW OVER THE MIDWEST) TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NC TONIGHT. SURFACE FLOW FROM THE WEST OR WSW WILL PICK UP A BIT WITH THE TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENT... HOWEVER THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD HOLD NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A SHALLOW POCKET OF MOISTURE FROM 850-750 MB DROPPING SE THROUGH NC ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE AT THIS LEVEL... HOWEVER THE DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER... AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE LARGE PART OF TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY STIRRED NEAR-SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT... AND EXPECT LOWS OF 45-50. FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND STABLE MID LEVELS WILL PERSIST OVER NC. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE DAY WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LIFT NE AWAY FROM OUR AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT DIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NE NC SUN... HOWEVER THE DIP IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND BE CONFINED TO FAR NRN AND NE NC. IN FACT... THICKNESSES OVER THE SRN CWA SHOULD BE SEVERAL METERS HIGHER SUN THAN SAT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... PERHAPS TOUCHING 80 IN THE SC BORDER COUNTIES... WITH SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT... AND THE CALMING AIR AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL FACILITATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING... FAVORING LOWS A TAD BELOW NORMAL... 40-47. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. INITIALLY COOL MORNING TEMPS AND A WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST...WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST MAY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REACH THE MID AND UPPER 70S. AS THE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MODERATE MINS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWER 50S TUESDAY MORNING. THE WARM START AND THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1390M...WILL ALLOW HIGHS UNDER STRONG SUN TO APPROACH 80 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL AGAIN MODERATE MINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MID 50S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 302 AM SATURDAY... MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWING AS IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO THE DEEPER FLOW AND WILL BE CUT OFF FROM SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE FRONT WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED AS THE INITIAL PUSH FROM A MID LEVEL VORT MAXIMA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...POPS WILL BE ON THE ANEMIC SIDE INITIALLY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BARELY WARRANTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY HAMPERED BY CLOUDINESS...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S AFTER THE WARM MORNING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S. WITH THE FRONT SLOWING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...CLOUDINESS WILL BE THICKER WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AROUND ON THURSDAY...STILL SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE DAY IN THE EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO STALL OR SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. THE FRONT WILL RECEIVE A STRONG NUDGE FROM A DIGGING UPPER SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT LINGERING SHOWERS TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING AND HIGHS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH OFF THE SC/GA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING... AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL NOSE NORTHEASTWARD OVER NC TODAY INTO TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIR FROM THE LOW LEVELS ON UP WILL MINIMIZE CLOUD COVER... AND ONLY SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN CLOUDS BASED ABOVE 6 000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED FROM MID EVENING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES NC FROM THE NORTH. THE ONE EXCEPTION: WE ARE WATCHING OUT FOR POTENTIAL SHALLOW PATCHY FOG MAINLY AFFECTING RWI EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. BUT AT THIS TIME THE POTENTIAL LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT... COMING FROM A SW/W/NW DIRECTION UNDER 6 KTS TODAY... BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT MAINLY NW TONIGHT. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SUN MORNING... PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AT ALL SITES 09Z-13Z SUN... BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH INITIAL DRY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NW TRANSITIONING TO A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...MLM LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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