Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 111846 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 246 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HOLD OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY... REST OF TODAY: HAVE REDUCED THE ALREADY-LOW POPS FURTHER... CONFINING CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WITH DRY (BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY) CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE ERN EDGE OF THE CWA WITH VERY LIGHT MAINLY NE WINDS TO ITS WEST. WIDESPREAD STRATUS PERSISTS AND WITH THE LIGHT FLOW AND STABLE AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS... THIS SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISPERSE THIS MORNING DESPITE DRY AIR JUST ABOVE. BLENDED TPW AND PW PROGS SHOW WELL THIS MUCH DRIER AIR... AND THIS COMBINED WITH MINIMAL HEATING THIS MORNING WILL GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE PRECIP TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TODAY ONLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS... WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT. HAVE TENTATIVELY KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 RANGE... HOWEVER BASED ON THE CONTINUED SLOW CLIMB IN TEMPS THUS FAR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA... THESE MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED DOWNWARD FURTHER AND WILL RE-EVALUATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. -GIH TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING WITH JUST A STRAY SHOWER POSSIBLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...MAY SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS OR PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO NEAR 70 IN THE SANDHILL AND COASTAL PLAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL NC IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING/DISSIPATING MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. WEAK-MODERATE W-NW FLOW WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF TRIGGERS ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MOST LOCATIONS. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SE WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. ALSO...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MAY THREATEN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS IN THIS REGION LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG OR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT...THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70. -WSS && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY... MID LEVEL RIDGING THAT WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL START TO RECOVER SOME ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY 1.2-1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW SOME SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF MOSTLY DIURNAL TYPE STORMS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE RATHER LOW. IF ANY PRECIP DOES AFFECT THE AREA...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT (FROM CONVECTION DRIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN) AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEABREEZE. BY SUNDAY...MAX LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1430M...SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 90S (ALTHOUGH MORE CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND WHICH WOULD TEMPER THE WARMING SOME). OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY... A DEEP VORTEX IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THEREFORE...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. ALSO...GIVEN THIS UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH... THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND THEREFORE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST AND THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEN THERE IS STILL A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO IF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN CAROLINA. THUS...WILL SHOW A LITTLE DECREASE IN POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE IN (HIGHES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA) GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP. HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP...TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN THE DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. && AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY... CLOUD TRENDS FROM MVFR TOWARD VFR WILL CONTINUE... WITH A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z THROUGH 06Z. VERY MOIST AIR AND LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS OVER CENTRAL NC HAVE RESULTED IN A SLOWER-THAN-EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SO FAR TODAY... WITH CENTRAL NC AIRPORTS STILL SEEING MAINLY MVFR CIGS. THESE WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR AFTER 21Z. WE DO EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG AFTER 06Z... AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z... AND THIS MAY MANIFEST INTO IFR CIGS AT FAY (WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST). ANY SUB-VFR FOG/STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MIX AND LIFT TO VFR FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS... AROUND 13Z SAT... FOLLOWED BY AN EXCELLENT CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF SAT. LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SAT... HIGH PRESSURE AND A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS WILL HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND... CAUSING VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH MON... ALTHOUGH RWI/FAY MAY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB-VFR FOG NEAR DAYBREAK SUN AND AGAIN MON. A STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUE/WED. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS/HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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