Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 301905 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 305 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1018 AM SUNDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FL. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GSO SOUNDING INDICATES GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT... AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON... LEADING TO PWS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE NW AND NEAR 2 INCHES SE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S... TO UPPER 80S IN THE NW WHERE A FEW MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE ARE LIKELY BEFORE CLOUDS COMPLETELY OVERTAKE THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT....THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY NEARING THE SC/NC BORDER AFTER 18Z. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAMPENED MID- LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FORCING LOOKS TO BE WANING/EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME THUNDER AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY DEVELOPS(MUCAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG). WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGES...HIGHEST IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AS BOTH UPPER FORCING AND MOIST PLUME SHIFT OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE...RANGING FROM LOWER 80S IN WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MID/UPPER 80S WHERE SHOWERS ARE SCARCE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY... RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS... WITH INCREASING HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS... WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KRDU... KRWI... AND KFAY WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEK... WITH PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...30

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.