Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 260718
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT
THEN DRIFT EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM SATURDAY...

REST OF TONIGHT: QUIET AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED... AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON`S ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HELD WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA... THANKS TO THE WEAK
MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM THE NNW... AND IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS THIS CONVECTION HAS GREATLY WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED ENTIRELY
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SCATTERED TO PERIODICALLY BROKEN CLOUDS
BLOWN OFF FROM THIS DYING CONVECTION WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
TONIGHT... HOWEVER SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE BULK OF
THE NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FACILITATING
RADIATIONAL COOLING... WE MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT FOG ALONG/EAST OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS RECOVER A BIT... HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD VERY LOW VISIBILITIES ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE HERE AND UPSTREAM AS NOTED ON UPPER AIR
ANALYSES. RECENT TEMP TRENDS AND RAPID-UPDATE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOWS
FROM 63-71... WITH THE LOWER READINGS ATYPICALLY EXPECTED IN THE
EASTERN CWA. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...

A DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT AIDED BY THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDING EASTWARD WILL BRING HOTTER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY. A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH IS EXPECTED WHICH COULD HELP INITIATE
A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS... HOWEVER CHANCES APPEAR LOW AT THE
CURRENT TIME. HIGHS 90-95. LOWS GENERALLY 70-73 AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GENERATE
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST... THEN POTENTIALLY STALLS OVER
THE REGION.

BEFORE THEN... SLIGHT CHANCES OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BUT A MAIN KICKER SHOULD BE LACKING.
HOWEVER... ANY DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO EITHER MAINTAIN OR KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
APPROACH. WE MAY HAVE TO RAISE POP IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM OFF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A LARGE AMOUNT OF THE TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY (POSSIBLY IFR OR LIFR AT KRWI) DUE
TO FOG IN THE VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY...AND ESPECIALLY
KRWI...BETWEEN 07Z-12Z SUNDAY.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC...INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF EARLY
MORNING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. IN
ADDITION...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING
CONVECTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...77/WSS



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