Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 010220
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL HOLD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY EXTENDS OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

THE SHIELD OF TROPICAL RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...
WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED WELL TO OUR NE. WHILE A FEW
SHALLOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE... THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CHS
COAST... AND THIS WILL TRACK TO THE NNE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER ERN NC... ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY JUST UPSHEAR. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE RAIN SHIELD IS
LIKELY TO HOLD JUST TO OUR EAST OR PERHAPS BRUSH ALONG THE FAR ERN
COASTAL PLAIN AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER ERN NC... A SCENARIO NEARLY IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE POP OVER
THE CENTRAL/ERN FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY EVENING... THEN EXPECT DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
OUR SW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL NC. IT`S A DIFFERENT
STORY NEAR THE GROUND HOWEVER... AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOLDING OVER THE ERN HALF OF NC ALONG WITH A WET GROUND AND
LIGHT OR CALM SURFACE WINDS LEAD TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT... PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAY TO
THE EAST/NORTHEAST. EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS FROM 67-72. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY-
CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE
ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE
MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS 69-72. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL
DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY
WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:

INT/GSO: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AT
THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (09-13Z). OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

RDU/FAY/RWI: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT
EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE PRESENCE OF CALM
WINDS...MOIST AIRMASS...AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS ATTENDANT EITHER LOW CEILINGS OR
LOW VISBYS IN DENSE DOG...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD ASIDE FROM A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER AT THE
FAY/RWI TERMINALS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NOTE: THE RDU
TERMINAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DENSE FOG
TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MORNING. -VINCENT

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z WED: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.
SCATTERED SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WED THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH
DETAILS OF POSSIBLE TIMING OR COVERAGE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT


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