Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 271931

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
331 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

Strong high pressure aloft will extend across the region through
Thursday, bringing continued hot and humid conditions to central NC.
The chance for afternoon storms will increase toward the weekend.


.NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
As of 331 PM Wednesday...

Today: Persistent mid/upper level anticyclone located just to the
south/southeast of central NC will continue to provide the region
with hot and humid conditions with another day of afternoon temps in
the mid to upper 90s and heat index values in the 103-109 degree
range (highest east and south again). Given the consecutive days of
heat index values of around 100/low 100s across the northwest
piedmont and warm overnight lows have decided to expand the heat
advisory to encompass the entire area.

Strong surface heating within the high PW air mass in place will
support isolated to scattered convection this afternoon, though the
remnant outflow boundary from last night`s convection could lead to
convective initiation. Proximity to the modest 30kt mid-level flow
over the Mid-Atlantic states, on the northern periphery the upper
anticyclone, could support a few severe clusters, especially across
the northern half of the forecast area. The primary threat again
will be locally damaging wind gusts. Given PW`s around 2 inches+
heavy rain will be possible, with a threat of localized flooding if
any clusters slowly track across an urban area.

Tonight: Most convection will generally die off by late evening with
another warm night expected. Expect lows temps tonight to generally
be in the mid to upper 70s.


.SHORT TERM /Thursday and Thursday night/...
As of 331 PM Wednesday...

...A heat advisory has been issued for all of Central NC for Thursday

The center of the mid/upper level anticyclone over the SE U.S.
will shift ever so slightly eastward on Thursday, allowing the
mid-level wave thats currently over the Lower MS Valley to open up and
drift slowly NE, becoming increasingly sheared as it moves into
the Central Appalachians Thursday night. While this feature
could support some storms on our western doorstep early Friday
morning, strong daytime heating combined with weak sfc convergence
invof the surface trough in the lee of the mountains will support
isolated to scattered convection during the afternoon/evening. Much
like today, central NC will lie south of the 40-45kts westerlies in
place over the central Mid-Atlantic States, with deep layer shear
generally 10 to 15 kts. As such, severe threat should be relatively
isolated in nature.

With no change in airmass, expect persistence with respect
to temperatures and heat indices, and thus will issue another
heat advisory Thursday for all 31 counties in central NC, and while
the actual heat indices across the Triad may fall just short of
actual heat advisory criteria, the cumulative effect of the heat indices
in the 100 to 103 for several days can be just as dangerous.

Highs in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices of 103 to 109 F. Lows
Thursday night in the 70s.


.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
As of 331 PM Wednesday...

A shortwave moving across the Mid Atlantic on Friday will act to
suppress the upper ridge that has been the cause of our extreme
further to the south and east of NC. This will be the beginning of a
pattern change for the region, with troughing eventually dominating
the east coast by early next week. Therefore, for late in the week
and into the weekend, deep southwesterly flow will set up over the
area as the mean trough axis stays to the west. Thus, convective
development will largely hinge on disturbances moving through in the
flow aloft. These disturbances are difficult to time this far out,
therefore will show mostly a diurnal trend on near normal convective
chances. Then, we should see precip chances increasing some more
into early next week as the aforementioned trough begins to progress
east towards our region.

The extreme heat should finally let up as the upper ridge is
suppressed and clouds/precip chances will be on the rise. Thus, am
expecting max temps to trend from the low/mid 90s on Friday and
Saturday to the upper 80s/lower 90s early next week.


As of 130 PM Wednesday...

Isolated to scattered convection could impact any of the terminals
this afternoon and evening. A brief period of Sub-VFR conditions
will be possible with the stronger storms, along with gusty winds.
Convection should begin to wane aoa 03z, with generally dry
conditions overnight. Patchy sub-VFR fog and/or stratus will be
possible again on Thursday morning, especially near locations that
receive heavy rain.

Outlook: Outside of isolated to scattered storms each
afternoon/evening and some patchy early morning fog, expect
predominately VFR conditions through Friday. Rain chances are
expected to increase by the weekend and through early next week.


Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ007>011-021>028-
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ007>011-021>028-



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