Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 240126
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
925 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH NC TONIGHT.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL OTHERWISE EXTEND ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 925 PM SATURDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A COUPLE SEVERE (OR NEAR SEVERE STORMS)
AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT HAVE
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE SUNSET AND PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST AWAY
FROM THE CWA.  SPC MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A A POCKET OF 250-500
J/KG MLCAPE WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGHER THETA_E OVER THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT...SO THERE IS STILL A SMALL WINDOW (A COUPLE MORE HOURS)
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER BEFORE 50-70M HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND A
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...NOTED ON THE 24/00Z KRNK AND
KGSO RAOBS...ENDS THE POSSIBILITY.  A COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL VA WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR LATER TONIGHT...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN PRIOR TO THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE ISOLATED AREAS THAT RECEIVED A HEAVIER SHOWER
OR STORM THIS EVENING.  THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS THE DRIER AIR SETTLES IN...SKIES CLEAR AND LOWS DIP
INTO THE LOW/MID 50S PER STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS. -22

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER THE WEATHER PATTERN. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5-10 KTS WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15 KTS...PARTICULARLY
IN THE EAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. -RE

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...

MONDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY...HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN WARM SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL
NC. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT
EAST AND BECOME ELONGATED FROM WEST TO EAST. A STRONGER...SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY...WITH A FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...
THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH TOWARD NC...BUT SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THAT PANS OUT...THE FORECAST COULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. TEMPS WILL INCREASE FROM HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES AND LOWS
AROUND 60 DEGREES MONDAY...TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...
PARTICULARLY WITH IF AND HOW FAR THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO/THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND ALSO WITH RESPECT TO RAIN
CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS STILL BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA
WHERE IT LINGERS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT TO THE
NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID
80S SOUTH...HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE HIGHS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
COULD STAY BELOW 80 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON MOST DAYS...MAINLY IN THE
AFT/EVE HOURS...HOWEVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC COULD STAY DRY. THE BEST
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
IS THURSDAY AFT/EVE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
APPROACH/MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
RESULTANT TEMPS IS TOO HIGH TO GET SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM SATURDAY...

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VA --THE LEADING EDGE
OF DRY AIR CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S-- WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. BEFORE THE FRONT AND DRIER AIR
ARRIVE...HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE EARLIER SHOWERS
OCCURRED (IE. KRWI/KFAY/KRDU). IN ADDITION...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY FEW-SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 1000-3500 FT LATE TONIGHT MAINLY AT KRWI AND
KFAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
NORTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY
SUN...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
BUILDS OVER SERN VA AND NERN NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK: A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE...AND ASSOCIATED FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND POST-FRONTAL SUB-VFR CEILINGS (ON THE COOL/NORTH
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY)...WILL SETTLE INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. NORTHERN TAF SITES WOULD BE
THE MOST LIKELY SITES AFFECTED BY ANY OF THE ABOVE...SINCE THE
FRONTAL ZONE IS MOST LIKELY TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC
BORDER BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...22/RE
SHORT TERM...KCP
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...MWS



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