Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 220758

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
258 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

High pressure will continue to ridge west into the Mid-Atlantic as
the center remains offshore. A slow-moving upper level trough will
cross the Southeast and Mid Atlantic states through tonight. An
upper level ridge will again briefly build over the eastern U.S.
Thursday and Friday.


As of 240 AM Wednesday...

Low pressure over the Mississippi River valley will slide southeast
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today and over Florida tonight. The
bulk of the rainfall associated with that system will remain well
south of Central NC. However, increasing southeasterly return flow
into the area from both the high offshore and the aforementioned low
over the Gulf, combined with the diffuse diffuse trough aloft moving
over the region, will result in the development of showers across
the west, possibly lasting into the early afternoon. Temperatures
this morning will be a bit atypical with around 50 degrees in the
west and mid 40s in the east. The increasing southeasterly flow
advecting warm Atlantic air into the region will yield highs in the
low to mid 70s across the southeast. With the lingering light rain
and clouds across the west, highs are only expected to get into the
low 60s, however should clouds and rain clear out earlier, the highs
could be several degrees higher. Lows tonight in the upper 40s NW to
low 50s SE.


As of 255 AM Wednesday...

The low over Florida will migrate eastward then northeastward over
the Atlantic on Thursday/Thursday night, allowing the upper level
ridge to once again set up over the southeast U.S. Thursday Night.
The surface high will move eastward, though will continue to ridge
into the Mid-Atlantic, keeping the surface low suppressed to the
southeast. The best chance for any light rain will be over the far
west early Thursday, but then the far southeast late Thursday and
Thursday night. For now will keep the forecast dry as the models are
having a tough time generating any rain over Central NC. Given the
continued influx of warm air into the region, expect another day of
temperatures well above normal, highs in the 70s and lows in the mid


As of 300 PM Tuesday...

Thursday is starting to look pretty dry as a low pressure system
moves across the Florida Peninsula and into the Atlantic. A low
pressure system to the west is slower to develop then model
solutions showed over the last several iterations. This leaves
central NC in a moisture gap for much of the end of the work week
with both Thursday and Friday looking drier and fairly warm with
highs in the low to mid 70s on Thursday and in the mid to upper 70s
on Friday.

As the parent low makes its way to the Great Lakes region it will
push a cold front eastward over the Appalachians and into central NC
on Saturday/Saturday evening. The tail end of the moisture moves
across the state with northern areas of the forecast area more
likely to get rain than southern areas. QPF looks very meager on the
raw model output but there will be some instability around and if
some showers or thunderstorms were to form some areas could locally
see up to a half of an inch of rain but this is likely to be the
exception rather than the rule. Thus not as much help to the
abnormally dry situation as we had hoped.

While Saturday will still be warm ahead of the front with temps in
the mid to upper 70s, the airmass does modify on Sunday and high
temps drop back near 60 degrees which is much closer to normal this
time of year. Temperatures will modify back through the 60s on
Monday and back towards the 70s on Tuesday with dry conditions


As of 100 AM Wednesday...

24-Hour TAF period: Somewhat of a low-confidence TAF forecast the
next 24 hours. However, the expectation is for fog/low stratus to
develop across the east around 08-10Z and in the north and west
around 09-12Z. Cigs could drop into the LIFR range though visbys are
expected to remain MVFR or VFR. The duration of sub-vfr cigs and the
extent of improvement beyond the 12-15Z time frame is variable
across the area, but expect the best chance for and greatest
improvement to be at KFAY and KRWI. KINT and KGSO could remain MVFR
through late in the TAF period. The best chance for light rain will
also be at KINT and KGSO through the overnight and into early
Wednesday afternoon. The greatest uncertainty/variability will
likely be at KRDU, but will keep the trend there closer to that of
KFAY and KRWI for now.

Looking ahead: With continued southeast flow through Friday, the
early-morning sub-VFR cigs and visbys will likely be a reoccurring
theme. Low clouds may scatter out enough during the daytime hours
for a return to VFR. Winds will slowly veer through the period ahead
of the approaching cold front. Showers and sub-vfr conditions will
also be possible ahead of the front, which is expected to move
through Central NC on late Saturday. A return to VFR conditions is
expected for Saturday night/Sunday.





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