Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
FXUS62 KRAH 270609
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
209 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016
An upper level ridge will extend across the region through the
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 920 PM Friday...
Diurnal convection has diminished with loss of heating. Dry sinking
airmass associated with the strong ridging aloft will result in
clear skies overnight with winds remaining light and variable.
Morning lows in the low-mid 70s.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Friday...
Core of mid/upper level ridge drifts northward into central
Appalachians/northern Mid-Atlantic during this period. Resultant
easterly flow over central NC Saturday will yield in modest moisture
advection. Still, this added moisture coupled with strong heating
will lead to a slight/moderately unstable atmosphere, supportive of
isolated-scattered convection in the afternoon-evening hours. Based
on position of a weak sfc trough, and the weak upslope flow, expect
highest threat for convection to occur over the coastal plain
(associated mainly with the inland moving sea breeze), and the
western piedmont. With the core of the hot air to our north, should
see afternoon temps lower a couple of degrees from this afternoon
values. Highs Saturday low-mid 90s (still a solid 5-8 degrees above
Bulk of convection will dissipate within an hour or two of sunset.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies with overnight temps in the low-
Sunday, a relatively moist and unstable atmosphere will persist over
central NC. However, lack of a trigger aloft will limit convective
development with most of the convection confined to the south and
east sections of the forecast area. Similar to Saturday, bulk of
convection will dissipate with loss of heating. Slow weakening of
mid/upper level ridge will result in high temps near 90-lower 90s.
Low temps Sunday night generally in the lower 70s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM Friday...
Medium range models appear to be coming into a bit better agreement
on showing the weak tropical low located between the northeastern
coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas shifting west-northwestward
across FL and into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico/near the western
FL coast this weekend into early next week before slowly lifting
north and eventually northeastward. However, there is still a lot of
uncertainty with regard to the timing of this system and timing of a
s/w trough approaching/amplifying in the northern stream mid to late
week (which will play a key role in our precip chances mid to late
Further northward across our latitude, a weak mid/upper level low is
forecast to move westward late Sunday into Monday and into eastern
portions of the Carolinas. This will provide eastern/southeastern
portions of the area with a chance of mostly diurnal showers and
storms on at least Monday. The mid level low is forecast to linger
across eastern portions of the area on Tuesday, before being
suppressed by a approaching northern stream s/w trough.
However, with still a significant spread in some of the models and
ensembles with regard to the track and timing of the possible
tropical system and potential moisture possibly pulled northward and
across eastern portions of our area we will keep a chance of showers
and storms across eastern portions of the area through midweek. As
the northern trough further amplifies and shifts eastward across our
area an associated cold front will move through the area on Thursday
into Friday (with a possibly some showers and storms areawide
accompanying the front). High temps are expected to generally be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, with mid to upper 80s on Friday. Lows
are expected to be near 70 to the mid 70s. However, if the track
and/or intensity were to change with the aforementioned tropical
system, then High temps may be lower midweek.
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 AM Saturday...
VFR conditions will generally rule through the current TAFS period
with high pressure aloft over the region. There is a weak and
shallow trough that will slip into the area tonight, with
northeasterly winds to follow on Saturday. Some hi-res model
guidance indicates a few showers could pop up in the coastal
plain early this morning, near RWI if they did, but confidence is
rather low given no ongoing showers. Otherwise, just some pockets
of MVFR vsbys will be possible prior to sunrise.
Widely scattered showers and storms are possible this afternoon,
though most should develop to the south and west of the TAF
sites, and then drift further southwest, limiting the impacts at
Long Term: Low rain and thunder chances will
prevail for the next several days keeping conditions mostly dry
with some isolated to scattered convection during the afternoon
hours, particularly across the east. Otherwise mostly VFR
conditions are expected.