Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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961
FXUS62 KRAH 210601
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
201 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid to upper level trough will drift across the Carolinas today,
then linger while weakening through the end of the week. Surface
high pressure will otherwise ridge south across the middle Atlantic
states for the next several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 PM Wednesday...

Convection continues to linger across the forecast area as an upper
level disturbance moves through. Some isolated thunderstorms have
cropped up mainly across the Triangle and points south but there are
also a few showers moving into the Triad area at this time. At this
point in the evening all convection is expected to be short lived
and of little consequence with the exception of some heavy rain and
possible cloud to ground lightning. As activity continues to
decrease, some clearing is expected to occur and MVFR visibilities
will be possible during the early morning hours. Lows overnight in
the middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Wednesday...

A vorticity disturbance will drift slowly eastward across eastern NC
on Thursday, and will eventually feed into the broad upper trough
extending SW from TC Jose off of the southern New England Coast.
This feature will support an isolated to slight chance of
weak/shallow convection, mainly across southern/southeastern
portions of the area.

H8 temps and low-level thickness drop off ever so slightly, so
perhaps a degree or two cooler when compared to today, but still in
the same ballpark with afternoon highs in the 85-90 degree range.
Any convection will die off with loss of heating. Overnight lows in
the mid to upper  60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 257 PM Wednesday...

Friday through Sunday will feature fair weather thanks to ridging to
our north, and the flow assoc with this ridge resulting in a drying
trend during that time. Thus we can expected decreasing clouds on
Friday, then mainly clear skies for the weekend.  Models also show
subtle low level thickness decreasing trend during this same time,
so expect temps in the low to mid 80s, rather than the mid to upper
80s that we`ll see in the near and short term periods.  Lows in the
60s.

Still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the first half of next
week related to the track and possible impacts with Hurricane Maria.
Right now most models suggest that Maria will stay well to our east
with little or no impacts on our weather across central NC Tuesday
into Wednesday, other than perhaps a few passing showers on the far
western periphery of the storm and perhaps a period of breezy
conditions. However, there`s still plenty of time for things to
change, so continue to stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 AM Thursday...

24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are generally expected to
continue through the 24 hour TAF period. However, another round of
patchy sub-VFR visbys (mainly MVFR) will be possible this morning
during the pre-dawn hours. Fog prone KRWI will stand the greatest
chance of seeing any IFR/LIFR visbys. Any sub-VFR visbys are
expected to quickly dissipate with sunrise.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible
again this afternoon across central NC, primarily across southern
portions of the region as a slow moving mid to upper level trough
crosses the region. However, confidence is too low to include any
mention the the TAFs at this time.

Outlook: Generally dry conditions are expected to continue late week
through early next week across the area. However, patchy sub-VFR
conditions in the pre-dawn hours may be possible each morning.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS
NEAR TERM...Ellis
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...BSD



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