Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 210830 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
330 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will extend across the
Carolinas through Thursday, resulting in record warmth across the
region Wednesday and Thursday. A backdoor cold front will move
southward into the area Thursday evening into Thursday night but
lift back north as a warm front late Friday and Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...

Low ceilings and pockets of fog this morning across the CWA,
certainly not as low as yesterday morning but still potentially
going lowers as we head into the pre-dawn hours. LIFR conditions
primarily in the south this morning with IFR and higher across the
northern tier. Fog will burn off after sunrise but ceilings may
stick around for some time, particularly in the west where
precipitation associated with a frontal zone west of the
Appalachians will creep towards the western fringes of the forecast
area. Aside from a few rogue showers, expect precipitation to remain
to the west today as the Bermuda high will keep central NC void of
precipitation. With warm air advection in place associated with
return flow around the surface high and ridging aloft, temperatures
will soar once again this afternoon into the upper 70s to low 80s in
most locations with some mid-70s in the Triad where cloud cover is
likely to be thicker. A few southwesterly wind gusts this afternoon
of up to 15-20 kts will subside after sunset. Ceilings are also
expected to go back down late this evening likely to IFR levels.
Lows in the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...

On Thursday, the Bermuda high will start to sink southwestward
towards the coast and at the same time, a second surface high will
cross the northern Great Lakes. The frontal zone to our west will
get elongated and cut off between the two high pressures. Short wave
disturbances coming from the deep south will travel up the
Appalachians and then make a hard right turn through the mid-
Atlantic states. This will again keep us dry for much of the day but
partly to mostly cloudy. Temps again well above normal with low 70s
across the north to near 80 degrees in the south. As the day
progresses, the northern high will move east towards NY and New
England and move into a more favorable position for cold air damming
but the disturbances in between the highs leave some question as to
how far south the cold wedge will be able to progress overnight
Thursday and into Friday. This will leave a tricky low temperature
forecast for Thursday night with low 50s in the northeast and upper
50s in the southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...

A backdoor cold front will retreat north as a warm front during the
day Friday as high pressure off of the SE US coast strengthens and
edges a bit further west. This will help to re-intensify southerly
flow and warm air advection into the region. In all, only minor
influence on temperatures is expected and mainly along and north of
the Interstate 85 corridor. These areas may be limited to the mid to
upper 60s during the afternoon while the rest of the area should
warm nicely, with 70s to near 80 degrees will be possible. Some
uncertainty here, as models continue to trend warmer, with some
members keeping the boundary north of the VA/NC border altogether.
If this scenario plays out, expect temperatures across the northern
piedmont counties to be warmer than currently forecast.

A more unsettled pattern returns by the weekend, as a surface low is
expected to strengthen across the central Great Plains by Saturday
and eject northeast through the Great Lakes Region through Sunday.
This will push an associated cold front through central North
Carolina Sunday and Sunday night before stalling it along the coast
Monday and Tuesday. This will reintroduce showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms as early as Saturday afternoon in the form of pre-
frontal showers, with the best forcing arriving Sunday afternoon and
evening as the front progresses through. Another wave will intensify
along the front Monday into early Tuesday before a cooler area of
high pressure takes over, keeping conditions a bit more seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 AM Wednesday...

24 Hour TAF period: Some low ceilings starting to set in this
morning but they have been slower to develop than expected. Will
continue to monitor throughout the morning for any signs of dense
fog but expect a general lowering of aviation conditions through the
early morning hours and then improvement after sunrise. Some wind
gusts this afternoon up to 20 kts or so for a few hours before
sunset. Another lowering of ceilings can be expected after 00z.

Long term: A warm, moist weather pattern will promote chances for
fog and low stratus the next several mornings. A cold air damming
wedge could bring adverse conditions on Friday. A stronger cold
front will cross the area on Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RDU Records:

Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
------------------------------------------
02/21       76    2011        55     1939
02/22       75    1897        60     1897
02/23       79    1980        57     1962
02/24       81    1982        58     1985

GSO Records:

Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
------------------------------------------
02/21       74    2011        50     1954
02/22       74    1925        57     1980
02/23       74    2017        52     1922
02/24       79    1982        55     1985

FAY Records:

Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
-------------------------------------------
02/21       80    1991        61     1953
02/22       77    2003        56     1989
02/23       80    1922        55     1922
02/24       83    1930        60     1975
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...Ellis
SHORT TERM...Ellis
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...Ellis
CLIMATE...RAH



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