Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 161928
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
328 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will gradually dissipate tonight into Monday. High
pressure aloft will build east from the Plains states mid to late
week, leading to hot weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 227 PM Sunday...

As of 18Z, a lingering boundary is still showing up on sfc obs
separating mid 70s dwpts south of it from mid-upr 60s dwpts to the
north of it.  This boundary is roughly along a KAVC-KHNZ-KRDU-KSOP
line then extending w-swwd.  A couple tstms have developed invof of
this feature, particularly north near the NC/VA border lakes, and
south of the boundary across the southern Coastal Plain and
Sandhills. The latest round of CAMs generally agree that additional
showers/tstms will develop invof this boundary, and eastward in the
airmass that`s more moist and buoyant. While SFC and ML CAPE is
abundant south/east of the boundary, deep layer shear is very weak,
so expect the deepest updrafts to be short-lived. Nevertheless, the
stronger cells will be capable of producing torrential downpours and
excessive lightning. In summary, for the rest of this afternoon and
evening, the lowest PoPs (slight chance) will be across the Triad,
with PoPs increasing south and east, to likely PoPs across our SE
zones.

Look for showers/tstms to wind down and move to our east overnight.
Forecast soundings and MOS guidance suggest some fog will be
possible, particularly along and east of I-95. Lows tonight from the
upper 60s Triad and north near the VA border, to lower 70s south and
east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 227 PM EDT Sunday...

Little change in the pattern with the longwave trough axis remaining
along the Appalachians. Yet both the GFS and NAM show the plume of
highest pwat shifting to our east, and this is noted in forecast
soundings that show pwat falling to 1.5" or less across our entire
CWA Monday afternoon. Models suggest the best chance for rain will
be to our west developing over the mountains and drifting east
across the foothills, and to our east near the coast in the deeper
moisture, with lesser coverage across central NC compared to today.
Thus, will stay just below PoPs climo, going with 20-30% across our
CWA, highest east near the better moisture and lowest west. Nearly
all the guidance suggests high temps near climo, thus upper 80s for
highs.

Mainly dry Monday night with any isolated showers/tstms dissipating
by early overnight. Lows around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Tue/Wed: A weak upper level trough along/east of the Appalachians
will progress slowly toward the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast
Tue/Wed. Expect near normal temperatures, with the best potential
for diurnal convection along the coast and in the mountains/
foothills.

Thu-Sun: An upper level ridge will build eastward from the Central
Plains to the lower MS river valley and Deep South on Thu/Fri, then
progress slowly toward the SE coast Sat/Sun. 12Z guidance suggests
that central NC will be situated on the northeast periphery of the
ridge, in NW flow aloft. Unseasonably strong deep layer shear,
atypically steep mid-level lapse rates, and an increased potential
for shortwave energy /DPVA/ typically accompany NW flow aloft. With
the above in mind, an enhanced potential for organized severe
weather may be present over portions of the region late this week
into this weekend, particularly the Mid-Atlantic states. Expect
above normal temps in the mid 90s (perhaps upper 90s S/SW in closer
proximity to the ridge) and near or above-climo chances for
convection, though confidence is lower than average. -Vincent

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1235 PM Sunday...

Through the 24 hour TAF period: Expect VFR conditions for KINT/KGSO.
To the south and east of KGSO over toward the I-95 corridor, flight
conditions will be locally impacted and reduced by scattered showers
and tstms this afternoon and evening, and potential for fog later
tonight. Outside of the precip and fog, VFR conditions expected.
Winds generally less than 10 kt at all TAF sites.

Outlook... 18z Mon through late-week. Morning LIFR to IFR CIGS and
VSBYS possible at all sites, but especially KRDU/KFAY/KRWI between
06z-14z/Mon and again Tue am. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR CIGS are
expected. There is a chance of MVFR to IFR conditions with scattered
PM showers/storms Monday and Tuesday, otherwise, lesser rain chances
during the second half of the week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...np/Badgett



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