Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 251654
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1153 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM SUNDAY...

THE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCED CIRRUS EVENT OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED. THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATED A SHIFT
NORTHWARD AND DECREASE IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME CIRRUS LATE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE W-NW LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE MID 50S WITH LIGHT SW WIND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NC. MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY
WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE TRACK BUT IN GENERAL THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES INTO NC MONDAY MORNING. SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME
LIFT ABOVE 500 MB BUT BELOW THAT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE JUST
STARTING TO DEEPEN. THEREFORE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND SATURATION
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT BAY. IN
GENERAL...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A LIQUID RAIN EVENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO TRACK OF THE LOW BUT EXPECT UPPER
40S NORTH TO LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH AS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST AND
REALLY START TO DEEPEN AND START TO IMPORT A LOT MORE MOISTURE OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. BY THIS TIME HOWEVER...LOW WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST FOR US TO HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT HERE IN
CENTRAL NC. THE ATTENTION AT THIS TIME WILL THEN TURN TO A SECONDARY
WAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST WAVE DIVING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME A COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL
HAVE INITIATED BUT THERE STILL COULD BE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR SOME
PRECIPIATION. BY 00Z TUESDAY WETBULB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN THE TRIAD...AND DOWN TO RALEIGH BY 06Z
TUESDAY. IF SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IS LEFT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE SECONDARY WAVE TO PRODUCE A QUICK RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER.
THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT RATHER QUICKLY IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS IS NOT VERY HIGH BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOST PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT AND ALL LIQUID.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ENDING EARLIER IN THE DAY...THE QUESTION
OF POSSIBLE BLACK ICE IS A LOGICAL ONE FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
COUPLE OF THINGS ARE STACKING UP AGAINST THIS AT THIS POINT.
FIRST...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS...WHICH WAS ALREADY LIGHT AMOUNTS TO BEGIN WITH...SO IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ROADS COULD BE DRY BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW FREEZING. EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT...VERY WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHS EARLIER IN THE DAY NEAR 50 DEGREES WOULD BE HARD TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ICE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW ICY PATCHES
BUT OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...

TUE/TUE NIGHT: THE POLAR FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED SOUTH OF NC... AS
THE SURFACE LOW BOMBS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. SHEARED VORTICITY
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SE AND EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
BASE OF THE MEAN POLAR TROUGH. WE MAINTAIN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FROM 925 MB UP THROUGH 600 MB (WITH SOME VARIABILITY AMONG
THE MODELS REGARDING SHALLOW DRY LAYERS THROUGH THIS DEPTH)... SO
EXPECT TO RETAIN A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... BUT
ANY PRECIP IS APT TO BE QUITE PATCHY WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS
EXPECTED... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. WILL LEAVE POPS UNDER 15%. DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING... THICKNESSES DROP TO VALUES NEARLY 20 M BELOW NORMAL...
SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH WHEN
FACTORING IN CLOUD COVER. THE COLUMN DRIES OUT TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE OH VALLEY ATTEMPTS TO PUSH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH A SLACKENING MSLP GRADIENT AND LOWERING WIND SPEEDS
UNDER CLEARING SKIES... EXPECT CHILLY LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S.

WED-THU: THE MID LEVEL POLAR LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST
WITH THE MEAN TROUGH FINALLY PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST
EARLY WED... LEAVING NC BENEATH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
THIS WILL GENERATE MAINLY QUIET WEATHER AND A GRADUAL MODIFICATION
OF TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE OVER
THE CAROLINAS WED BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHWARD TO OVER FL AND OFF THE SE
COAST THU. ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST WED NIGHT WILL CROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY REGION LATE THU... AND A SHOT OF WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA
ACROSS NC ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISS
VALLEY INTO THE MIDSOUTH) AND ACCELERATING CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS
WITH LOWERING BASES THU. EXPECT HIGHS WED MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER
40S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S WED NIGHT AND
HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT-SAT: THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
OH VALLEY SWINGS THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES WHILE AMPLIFYING THU
NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH PROJECTED PW VALUES JUST A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL... SO DESPITE DECENT MID-LEVEL DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING... EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE BRIEF AND LIGHT... AND
WILL KEEP POPS LOW. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF FRI
INTO FRI NIGHT... WITH INITIALLY BLUSTERY NW WINDS POST-FRONT
WEAKENING FRI NIGHT. PLEASANT WEATHER SAT WITH BRIEF FLAT OR
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
NOSING INTO NC FROM THE GULF STATES. MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY START TO
DIVERGE HERE BUT WE MAY SEE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE DIVING THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SAT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE CLOSED LOW OFF BAJA STREAKING EASTWARD
INTO NC... MEANING INCREASING CLOUDS SAT. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1153 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AGAIN LATER. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUE AND WED. GUSTY NW WINDS
TO 22-25KT ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BADGETT


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