Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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510
FXUS62 KRAH 180824
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
324 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will track southeast through central North Carolina
today. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build into the
region from the northwest tonight and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Wednesday...

Cold front approaching the area is currently settled along the WV/VA
border. Out ahead of the front, radar showing some light rain along
the VA/NC border north of the Triad and that will gradually work its
way into the northern tier today. Short term models do not show a
lot of precipitation with the front as it moves through the area.
There will be a few wind gusts however up to 20 kts or so.
Temperatures will be tricky as the timing of the front could mean
near steady state or slightly falling temperatures through the
afternoon hours. Regardless highs will be in the lower 60s across
the north and near 70 degrees in the south. Lows in the upper 30s to
low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Wednesday...

High pressure will be in control for much of the day on Thursday as
an upper level ridge moves over central North Carolina. A bit cooler
with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will be light
and variable under the surface high and the airmass will be dry.

A southern stream low will start to encroach on the area by early
Friday morning with increasing clouds throughout the night on
Thursday night but all precipitation is expected to hold off until
Friday. Lows Thursday night in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 244 PM Tuesday...

There is fairly good model agreement through this period. The
general pattern is a series of weather systems swinging through the
region, resulting in alternating wet and dry periods.

Thursday through Friday Night: Thursday will be largely dry with a
surface high briefly moving over and away from the area and an upper
level ridge over the Southeast U.S. Meanwhile, an upper low that
developed over the Southwest U.S. will lift northeast and get
absorbed into the northern stream. This low will then transition
into a shortwave trough extending southeast into the Carolinas from
the Plains. A warm front will lift northward through Central NC
Thursday night into Friday. Strong southerly flow advecting warm
moist air into the region, combined with the upper forcing from the
s/w aloft, will result in a period of rain moving through the area
Friday aft/eve and clearing out Friday night. Highs will increase
slightly from Thursday (mid to upper 50s) to Friday (mid 50s north
to mid 60s south), but lows will be mainly in the mid to upper 40s.

Saturday through Monday: Saturday should be dry with highs in the
low to mid 60s with continued advection of warm air into the region.
The weather gets increasingly more interesting for the rest of the
weekend and model agreement remains above normal, especially for
this far out in the forecast period. A strong low pressure system
moves off the Rockies Saturday night and quickly moves east through
the ARKLATEX on Sunday. With continued advection of warm moist air
off the Gulf ahead of the low, PWATs and precip chances will
increase Saturday night. The trough will become increasingly
negatively tilted Sunday night into Monday as the upper low swings
toward and along the Appalachians. This system will bring our first
chance for potentially strong storms to move through the area,
though for now will indicated the chance for some isolated
thunderstorms until it gets closer in time we get a better handle on
the instability, shear, and lapse rates that will largely determine
what type and strength of convection we can expect. Temps will
increase Sunday through Monday, especially across the southeast,
before decreasing again Monday night on.

The weather should dry out on Tuesday, though the negatively tilted
trough will remain over the Mid-Atlantic as the low lifts northward
through NY into Canada. Highs in the mid 50s and lows in the upper
30s to mid 40s expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 AM Wednesday...

24 Hour TAF period: VFR conditions across the area this morning as
winds remain between and 5-10 kts with a few gusts of 15-20 kts. As
a front approaches the area later this morning, there is some
uncertainty whether or not low ceilings will develop. At this point
feel that there will be a chance for some MVFR/IFR ceilings during
the 9-12Z period. Some very light precipitation may accompany the
front but that will be of minimal impact. Some gusty winds up to 20
kts this afternoon are expected. Conditions will return to VFR in
the late afternoon/early evening time frame.

Long term: VFR is expected to hold until Friday when the next system
is expected to move through from the southwest. A stronger system is
expected to impact the area early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Vincent
NEAR TERM...Ellis
SHORT TERM...Ellis
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Ellis



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