Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 170723 CCA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
223 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND THEN ALONG THE NC COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 223 AM WEDNESDAY...

UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
BUILD EASTWARD WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AT 850MB NOTED.
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT SEASONABLE AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH.

AN ACTIVE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US WILL REINVIGORATE THE PACIFIC JET THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. AN OPAQUE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD
TEMPER MIN TEMPS A BIT. MOST AREA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
30S...WITH SOME LOWER 30S IN SOME OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 223 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE VIGOROUS PACIFIC JET
BRANCH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN AN
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE GFS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAS BEEN INSISTENT IN SPREADING A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OR QPF ACROSS
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK DPVA/UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION...HOWEVER A DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SPRINKLES FROM REACHING THE GROUND AND
THUS WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO
WARM UNDERNEATH THE MILKY SKIES...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPS MAY
NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO FULLY RECOVER AS WE APPROACH THE SHORTEST
DAY OF THE YEAR(DEC 21). AS SUCH...HIGHS THURSDAY SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...RANGING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 242 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY... WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
STARTED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE GOM... AND THEN MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE ANY WINTRY PTYPES WOULD BE IN THE TYPICAL NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT/TRIAD AREA... WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC
RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THIS TIME...
THE HIGH IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG (1025-1030 MB) AND IS RATHER
TRANSIENT... AND RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE FOR
THIS EVENT. WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW STILL UNCERTAIN... WILL
CONTINUE WITH FORECAST OF RAIN ON SATURDAY... TAPERING OFF INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE EAST COAST BEHIND THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM... AND TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1257 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE VIGOROUS
PACIFIC JET THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK. OTHERWISE...A DRY
AIR SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST WILL SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL RESULT IN ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.+

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...CBL


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