Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 231127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
727 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016

High pressure will continue to build over the SE US today and
tonight. This high will weaken as shift south of the area on Monday,
in advance of a dry cold front moving through the area Monday


As of 245 AM Sunday...

In the wake of the upper low lifting northeast into eastern Canada,
rising heights aloft and associated strong subsidence warming will
allow for wall-to-wall sunshine. Surface High pressure centered over
the Lower MS Valley this morning will shift east and weaken across
the SE US this afternoon and tonight as a weak sfc trough develops
in the lee of the Appalachians. Resultant low-level swly flow will
help to bolster temps slightly, with uniform afternoon temps warming
into the upper 60s/near 70, very close to the 30-yr average for late
October.  Not as chilly tonight, with lows in the mid to upper 40s.


As of 245 AM Sunday...

A series of shortwaves diving through the back-side of the upper low
over eastern Canada and attendant upper level trough extending
across the eastern US will push a dry cold front through the area
late Monday afternoon/evening. In fact, west-northwesterly downslope
flow preceding the moisture-starved front will make it hard-pressed
for even a few clouds to accompany the front. As such, we will see
another day of unlimited sunshine with temperatures warming into the
mid to to upper 70s(south)ahead of the front Monday afternoon.
Modest CAA Monday evening/night on the leading edge of Canadian high
pressure building into the area from the NW will support lows
in the lower 40s north to mid/upper 40s south.


As of 255 AM Sunday...

Cool and dry air will spread south and into the area Tuesday and
Wednesday in northerly flow as Canadian high pressure ridges down
the Atlantic coast. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 60s
both days with Wednesday mornings low in the low to mid 40s.

The progressive surface ridge will move east and allow winds to veer
east and then southerly...initiating warm and moist advection by
Thursday. Highs will be on the uptick Thursday, with highs across
the south in the lower 70s, while the northern tier may not climb
out of the mid 60s. An amplifying upper trof and surface cold front
will move across the area Thursday night/Friday. With moisture
advection ongoing, would expect showers in the east by Thursday
afternoon spreading into the east Thursday night. Details are still
murky but increasing confidence in the arrival timing due to hints
of model consensus justify raising PoPs. Front should be east of the
area on Friday...shutting off moisture advection  to limit shower
coverage to widely scattered. Highs Friday and Saturday return to
near seasonable upper 60s to lower 70s with morning lows around 50.


As of 725 AM Sunday...

24 Hour TAF period: Very high confidence of VFR conditions through
the TAF period with clear skies and no visibility restrictions.
Forecast problem of the day will be wind gusts with light and
somewhat variable winds this morning ranging from 240 to 330 degrees
but settling in closer to the 240 degrees later this afternoon.
Forecast soundings also support some mixing and thus a few gusts are
possible this afternoon of about 15-20 kts.

Looking Ahead: VFR conditions will dominate for much of the week
with a low pressure system and associated cold front approaching in
the Thursday/Friday time frame.




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