Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 280659 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 258 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 258 AM THURSDAY... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REASSERTS ITSELF BACK OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY...AND WILL LINGER RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST KEEPS SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN PLACE. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVES ALOFT TO PROVIDE SUPPORT ALOFT. MODELS STILL HINT AT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHINESS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THOUGH...AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE LOOKS LESS THAN WEDNESDAY...IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. DESPITE STRONG HEATING AND RESULTANT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AS MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000 TO 1500 J/KG(A LITTLE HIGHER COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS)...DEEP LAYER OF ~10KTS WILL RESULT IN A NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 258 AM THURSDAY... GENERALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAP OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS DESTABILIZATION...GENERALLY 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OR LESS. THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE ISOLATED-SLIGHT CHANCE(10 TO 20 PERCENT) AT BEST. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 220 PM WEDNESDAY... ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST... KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OUR WEST...ALTHOUGH CAN`T COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS JUST YET FROM OUR TRIAD ZONES. WITH THE RIDGE STILL IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...LOOK FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO BE MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE DEEPER MOISTURE...AND TO OUR EAST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...THE FORECAST FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH...CONSEQUENTLY KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF HWY 64...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO OUR EAST TO SEE HOW FAR ANY SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY CAN PUSH INLAND. FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A COMPLICATED PATTERN APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING WITH A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY OR GULF COAST REGION...AND THE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW RIGHT NOW...PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA SUGGESTS AT LEAST CLIMO-POPS EACH DAY...DESPITE LACK OF MAJOR FORCING MECHANISMS. TEMPS: LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY OR GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL (LOWER-MIDDLE 80S) EARLY- MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. LOWS IN THE 60S EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 125 AM THURSDAY... 925-850MB LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT BETWEEN O6 TO 12Z. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. SOME AREAS COULD STILL SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOP HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL THIS PAST EVENING(KRDU AND KRWI). ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR 15-16Z. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK: THE THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE SOME INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...CBL

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