Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 121703 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 100 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY... THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 940 AM SATURDAY... REST OF TODAY: LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. FOG HAS HUNG AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL STABILITY AND NEARLY CALM SURFACE AIR IN PLACE... INHIBITING DISPERSION IN BOTH THE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL. ONCE THIS SLOWLY LIFTS AND MIXES... EXPECT TYPICAL FLAT DAYTIME CU IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE MIXED LAYER... RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY. TRADITIONAL AND CONVECTION- ALLOWING MODELS ALL SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST... AS DO THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES WHICH REVEAL DEEP RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WITH A DRY AND STABLE COLUMN. NEAREST CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE TO OUR SE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE... AS WELL AS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS... AS NOTED ON THE LATEST SPC SSEO OUTPUT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST HIGHS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 90. -GIH LOWS TONIGHT NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 70F. -VINCENT && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY... THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUN/SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC SUN/SUN NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT IN ASSOC/W SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS N/NW OF THE TRIANGLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 157 AM SATURDAY... AN ANOMALOUS MID/UPPER TROUGH FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS SLATED BY THE MODELS TO APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT. WE WILL HAVE TO RAISE POP FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FEATURES. IN ADDITION... A SQUALL LINE POTENTIALLY MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY EVENING OR NIGHT FROM THE NW. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST POP MAY END UP BEING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR OUR REGION IN THE LATEST RUNS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA MAY BE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... THE FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN OR COASTAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... KEEPING POP UP IN THAT REGION. OTHERWISE... MUCH MORE STABLE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION WED-THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK. LOWS IN THE 60-65 RANGE... WITH HIGHS 80-85 W-F. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY... THIS MORNING`S FOG AND LIFR STRATUS HAS LIFTED AND MIXED OUT... LEAVING TYPICAL SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NC TERMINALS... WHICH WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AT ALL SITES... ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR FOG MAINLY AT FAY TONIGHT 08Z-12Z. DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF STORMS AT/NEAR CENTRAL NC TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 8 KTS MAINLY FROM THE EAST OR ESE WILL BECOME UNIFORMLY FROM THE SSW TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... INCREASING BY MIDDAY SUNDAY TO AROUND 10 KTS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS 20Z- 02Z SUNDAY NEAR INT/GSO LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS (AND ATTENDING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS) STARTING MON NIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY TUE/TUE NIGHT... WHEN THE FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE FOR WED/THU ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI... BUT GIVEN THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL OUT ACROSS SE NC... SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN PERIODICALLY AT FAY WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND/OR MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...32 AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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