Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 240159 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 959 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the region through the week. Temperatures and humidities will gradually rise through late week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 955 PM Tuesday... Modified cP, 1026 mb surface high pressure centered over NJ will continue to extend across central NC tonight, with associated calm to infrequent light ELY stirring. Regional RAOB data suggests there is a very thin layer of moisture trapped at the base of a strong subsidence inversion around 7-8 thousand ft, which will support the occasional bubbling of altocumulus, beneath passing cirrus in NW flow around an upper ridge analyzed over the along the ERN Gulf coast. Associated sky conditions will average partly cloudy to mostly clear. Projected low level thickness values around 1390-1400 meters favor persistence low temperatures mostly in the lower to middle 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Tuesday... Wednesday will be a near carbon copy to today as Subtropical ridging remains firmly in control in the upper levels, with dry air surface ridge hanging on, albeit in a weakening state. This will ensure dry weather with seasonable daytime highs once again in the mid 80s northwest to around 90 southeast. Mostly clear Wednesday night with lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 305 PM Tuesday... This looks to be a fairly tranquil period with very low precip chances. Strong mid level ridging will remain the dominant weather feature, centered over the Mid South and Deep South early Thu, with its center drifting slowly to the ENE over the western Carolinas by Fri morning, to over VA and northern NC early Sat, where it will hold through at least Mon, maintaining dry and stable mid-upper levels over our area. The narrow surface ridge centered well to our NE and extending southwestward across central NC early Thu will weaken further with its axis pushing to our SE as a cold front approaches from the NW through Fri. Thicknesses will respond by rebounding from near-normal readings early Thu to 10-20 m above normal Fri into Sat. The front will drop into and through NC over the weekend, however with a weakening low level wind field and no opportunity for moisture influx at any level, any convection will be feeble and very isolated, limited to a few cells drifting off the higher terrain (likely a slow and difficult trip given the low speeds of the steering flow) and along an inland-drifting sea breeze late in the day Sat and Sun. New surface ridging attempts to build in from the north late Sun into Mon as it drifts eastward off the Canadian Maritime coast, however thicknesses dip minimally and remain just above normal through the early part of next work week. Forecast uncertainty starts to rise Tue with the weakening surface ridge axis shifting to our east and another frontal zone approaching from the WNW. A couple of modeling systems suggest that the evolving system now east of the Lesser Antilles may be driven toward the WNW by the Carolinas anticyclone and may affect a portion of FL, the Gulf Coast, or Southeast states by Mon or Tue. Model agreement on this is not ideal, however, reducing forecast confidence, but we`ll continue to monitor. Highs around 90 Thu will trend to the mid 90s for Fri/Sat, then dip back into the lower 90s for Sun-Tue. Lows will be around 70 trending to the lower 70s. -GIH && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 810 PM Tuesday... 24 Hour TAF Period: There is a high confidence of VFR conditions continuing through the 24 hour TAF period with high pressure in control. However, a brief period of patchy reduced visbys may develop at fog prone KRWI in the 08-11Z time range, though confidence is not high enough to include any mention in the TAFs at this time. Outlook...VFR conditions and light winds will generally prevail through mid to late week with strong subtropical ridging over the area. A weakening and moisture starved dry cold front will approach the area from the northwest late Friday/Saturday and will likely stall before dissipating. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...BD/CBL

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