Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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597 FXUS62 KRAH 281843 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 243 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist over the region through today. An upper level disturbance over the Atlantic will drift west toward the Carolina coast through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1025 AM Sunday... Little change required to the near term forecast. Patches of low clouds/stratus have begun to erode. This should lead to mostly sunny or partly cloudy skies at most locations by mid day. 12Z upper air analysis depicts an area of high pressure at the surface and aloft extending sw-ne across most of the western Piedmont. Subsidence associated with this feature should inhibit convective development later this afternoon. In the east, low level analysis depicts a weak trough and attendant weak moisture convergence along the eastern periphery of our forecast area. This should aid in the development/maintaining isolated to scattered convection later this afternoon. Best threat for a shower or storm should be confined to locations east of I-95, and more so in vicinity of Goldsboro and Clinton. 850MB temps are about 3 deg C cooler compared to same time Saturday. This supports afternoon temps a solid 5-7 degrees cooler than Saturday. This yields max temps this afternoon near 90 to the lower 90s. A steady east-ne confluent onshore flow aided by the approach of a developing tropical depression off the NC coast will result in variably cloudy skies and a threat for showers along the east-se fringe of our forecast area. Otherwise expect mostly clear-partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Overnight temps near 70-lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 400 AM Sunday... Monday looks fairly similar to today, with the upper low drifting inland over SC and briefly stalling. A strong moisture gradient will set up again with the surface ridge and deeper mixing in the west, and better moisture/instability over the coastal plain. A weak offshore surface low drifting toward the NC coast will have little impact here, and scattered showers and a few storms will again be confined to the southern coastal plain. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Lows monday night in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 243 PM SUNDAY... A couple of systems to deal with during the long-term period, the first of which will be what comes of TD8, now located about 400mi SE of KHSE. Based on latest model guidance and NHC track, it appears that system will remain far enough to our east to preclude any impacts to central NC. Assuming no changes, the Tue-Wed time frame looks to be mostly-dry with subsidence on the north and west side of that system resulting in below-climo pops for central NC, along with temps remaining several deg above normal, despite NE flow. The next system will be a short wave trough and assoc sfc cold front approaching from the north on Wednesday night and moving across our CWA on Thursday. While the sfc boundary coupled with mid-upr forcing assoc with a departing jet streak will provide adequate forcing for ascent, NW pre-frontal low to mid-level flow suggests that the best moisture will be found closer to the coast. Thus will feature a west-east pop gradient for the day and evening hours Thursday, highest pops east. Temps will continue to remain above normal until the front moves through. Lastly, a lot of uncertainty remains for next weekend as it relates to what`s now the disturbed weather over the FL straights. Models have been bouncing around with it`s movement, and whether or not it`s going to make a run up along the SE coast late in the week into next weekend. Of course a lot can change between now and then, so for now, will keep pops at or below climo with near normal temps across our area for next weekend, while keeping a close eye on model trends.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1245 PM Sunday... There is high confidence that VFR conditions will prevail across the western Piedmont of central NC through Monday night as an area of high pressure at the surface and aloft extends overhead. Surface winds out of the northeast may be breezy at times Monday, gusting between 14-18kts. Along and east of the highway 1 corridor, periods of cloudiness will occur, resulting in MVFR/IFR ceilings, with the lowest ceilings expected between 09Z-15Z Monday. A few showers may skirt in vicinity of KFAY and KGSB , and south of KRWI this afternoon through early evening, and again Monday afternoon. The difference in pressure between the high to the west and the approach of tropical depression to our east will yield breezy northeast winds Monday of 10-14kts with occasional gusts near 20kts. The above conditions expected to occur again Tuesday. Forecast confidence lowers for the remainder of the work week as model guidance offering varied solutions concerning the approach of a low pressure system from the south-southwest, and a cold front from the nw. At this time, the risk of adverse aviation conditions appear greater at KFAY and KRWI, and less so at KRDU, KGSO, and KINT. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...BS LONG TERM...np AVIATION...WSS

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