Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251958 AAA AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 310 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over much of the eastern states will keep things mainly dry and very warm in central North Carolina through Thursday. Maria is forecast to move northward across the western Atlantic, parallel to the SE Coast, through midweek then make a quick turn out to sea on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 PM Monday... Latest satellite pictures showing high clouds continuing to stream into the area early this afternoon in association with Maria, which is located well off the southeast coast. Meanwhile, surface high pressure extends from the Northeast into the local area. This will yield a continuation of rain-free conditions, though it will be partly to mostly cloudy for much of the time. The pressure gradient between the high to our north and Maria will also begin to tighten, producing wind gusts up to 20 mph. Low level moisture will increase tonight across the area, especially eastern portions of the area as Maria slowly lifts northward offshore of the Carolinas. This will allow for some low stratus to spread eastward into central NC, though generally dry conditions are expected to continue. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM Monday... Maria is expected to slowly lift northward and remain a couple hundred miles off the NC coast. Thus, central NC will remain well west of the track of the hurricane. Most locations across the area will remain dry, with only a few light showers associated with some weakening outer bands possible Tuesday-Tuesday night across the far eastern Coastal Plain counties. The main impacts will be mostly cloudy to overcast skies and some breezy conditions, with gusts up to 30 mph mainly across the Coastal Plain and eastern Sandhills. High temps are expected to be in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 310 PM Monday... Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will occur through the first half of the extended, followed by a return to more seasonable temperatures by the weekend. Tropical Cyclone Maria will make its closest approach to the NC coast Wednesday and Wednesday night, though still a couple hundred miles offshore. The difference in pressure between Maria and high pressure anchored over the New England will result in a steady northerly sfc wind over central NC Wed, with sustained winds 9-13 mph, and gusts 20-25 mph confined mostly to the far northeast Piedmont and northern coastal plain. The long ne low level fetch will pull Atlantic moisture into the ne third of central NC, resulting in variably cloudy skies. Elsewhere, skies will vary between partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Afternoon temperatures will run 7-10 degrees above normal for late September, reaching well into the 80s across the north, and near 90-lower 90s across the south. While well above normal, these projected high temperatures will be just shy of record highs for September 27th. The threat for showers still appears to be minimal as best low level convergence and deeper moisture will reside well to our east-ne. Have confined the slight chance PoP to an area along and east of a Wilson-Roanoke Rapids line. Thursday into Friday, a s/w crossing from the Great Lakes into New England will propel a cold front sewd toward central NC Thursday, passing overhead late Thu-Thu evening. Moisture limited with this feature and convergence anemic; so will maintain a dry frontal passage at this time. The approach of this weather feature will cause Maria to turn to the ne and accelerate away from the U.S. coast. Prior to frontal passage, expect another unseasonably warm afternoon with temperatures back into the upper 80s-lower 90s. Notably cooler air mass will filter into central NC by Friday as afternoon temperatures will be 7-10 degrees cooler compared to Thursday. Another s/w will cross southern New England/northern Mid Atlantic Saturday, propelling another sfc front sewd across central NC. This front will reinforce the dry air mass already in place. Forcing associated with the s/w may result in a scattered/broken stratocu deck, primarily north and east of Raleigh on Saturday, though moisture appears too shallow to support any showers. The cooling trend will continue Saturday with high temperatures 75-80. Canadian high pressure will build into our region Sunday into Monday, maintaining dry and seasonable conditions. Afternoon temperatures in the mid-upper 70s, with morning lows generally 50-55 with upper 40s probable in the normally colder locations. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ As of 130 PM Monday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are expected west of the triangle area. A band of clouds with bases 2000-3000 ft will remain over eastern portions of central NC through late afternoon/early evening. Northeasterly winds of 5 to 15 mph will continue with perhaps a few gusts into the 15 to 20 mph range as Maria slowly lifts northward off the southeast coast. Low level moisture will increase tonight, as MVFR to possibly IFR cigs spread eastward across the eastern half of the area (KRDU/KFAY/KRWI). Outlook: The closer approach of Maria to the coast will bring chances for some shower activity as well as some lower ceilings with some gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range to the eastern portions of the forecast area through Wednesday. Otherwise VFR conditions entire period. && .CLIMATE...
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Record high temperatures across central NC for September 27th and 28th RECORD MAX (9/27) RECORD MAX (9/28) RDU 94 / 1998 95 / 1998 GSO 90 / 2007 92 / 1939 FAY 94 / 1986 95 / 1933
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. $$ SYNOPSIS...Franklin NEAR TERM...BSD/Franklin SHORT TERM...BSD/Franklin LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION...BSD/Franklin CLIMATE...RAH

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