Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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994 FXUS62 KRAH 011034 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 635 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak area of low pressure and associated surface front will drift east across our region overnight, then push off to the east later today. Weak high pressure will build over the region this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /through tonight/... As of 635 AM Saturday... In near term, still quite a bit uncertainty as to the extent of cloudiness later today and the threat for isolated-scattered convection later this afternoon. More immediate concern is the potential for dense fog through 9 AM. Visibilities per traffic cameras across the region depict conditions going downhill since 4AM. Low visibility appears to coincide with the slow moving sfc front, aligned in close proximity to the I-40 corridor. Will have dense fog advisory for this region through 9AM. Water vapor imagery early this morning still depicts a decent plume of moisture lifting northward across eastern North Carolina. Presence of this moisture coupled with afternoon heating and weak perturbations within the flow aloft should be sufficient to spark a few showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly east of I-95. Some question as to the threat for a shower in vicinity of highway 1. Models insist that the atmosphere will dry out to the point that shower development will be prohibited due to lack of moisture.However, considering that the models are too dry over our western counties early this morning, would not be surprised if an isolated shower develops as far west as the highway 1 corridor this afternoon. The upper level low over the lower Ohio Valley, driving the moisture plume across eastern North Carolina, expected to drift northward today. Drier air aloft rotating around this maturing system will eventually rotate into most of central NC later today and tonight. Highs this afternoon will range from near 80 nw to the lower 80s elsewhere. If clouds are less extensive than forecast (ie more sun), then could see mid 80s over the far east-se sections of the forecast area. Tonight, close proximity of the moisture plume to our eastern border suggest a continued threat for an isolated shower this evening into the overnight, mainly east of I-95. Potential for patchy or areas of fog, mostly along the highway 1 corridor including the triangle area. Overnight temps mid 50s west where skies will be mostly clear, to the mid 60s in the far east where clouds may prevail. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Saturday... Expect a continued gradual improvement in weather conditions across central NC as the upper level low begins to lift off to the northeast across the eastern Great Lakes. This should shunt the moisture plume farther east, leading to drier conditions with a mixture of sun and clouds expected across the east, and mostly sunny skies west. Will likely see an uptick in mid-high level clouds late in the day along our western periphery as a disturbance rotating through the upper level approaches. Afternoon temps should remain a few degrees above normal, though fairly uniform, ranging between 80-84 degrees. Expect warmer overnight temps in the west Sunday night due to a blanket of mid- high level clouds. Overnight temps in the low-mid 60s areawide. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 328 AM Saturday... The upper level low will move off the Northeast coast by late Monday. Upper level ridging will build across the East Coast midweek, while surface high pressure centered over New England extends into the area. Expect a mainly dry forecast through Wednesday with near normal highs in the upper 70s. Uncertainty increases after Wednesday. An upper trough and attendant cold front will move into the MS Valley Thursday and progress eastward Friday. Front will likely weaken as much of the main upper level support remains well north into Canada. Meanwhile, current guidance differs significantly with respect to the proximity of Hurricane Matthew to the East Coast due to differences in resolving the aforementioned trough. Influence of any tropical moisture and consequent cloud cover and rain chances will be highly track dependent. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest information on Matthew. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 115 AM Saturday... Widespread sub-VFR conditions are highly likely across central NC through early this morning as widespread fog and low clouds develop across the region. Conditions are expected to improve first in the Triad region shortly after sunrise as drier low level air is in close proximity to this area. Aviation conditions should improve between 14Z and 16Z elsewhere, though ceilings may remain MVFR in vicinity of KFAY and KRWI through the afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in proximity of KFAY and KRWI with the greatest threat between 19Z and 23Z. Another round of IFR/LIFR conditions due to ceilings and possibly visibility (due to fog) appear likely in vicinity of KRWI, KFAY, and possibly KRDU. Aviation conditions are expected to improve Sunday through Wednesday with mainly VFR conditions. The exception will be a chance for MVFR ceilings and visibility each early morning, with the threat greatest in proximity of KRWI and KFAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ021>025- 040>042-076-077-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS/Badgett NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...WSS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.