Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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333 FXUS62 KRAH 301358 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 958 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A surface trough and associated weak areas of low pressure will affect central NC through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 958 AM Saturday... A few light showers have developed across the northern coastal plain, and this activity is expected to move off the ene over the next few hours. Current near-term guidance is in good agreement with our current forecast, which shows additional scattered showers and tstms developing over the foothills and western piedmont around mid-day or early afternoon, then moving ene across central NC during the mid-late afternoon, with the best coverage expected across our northern/northeast zones. Our current temp forecast is on-track, featuring highs in the low-mid 90s and h.i. values between 95-103 (highest southeast)...just below advisory criteria. No major changes expected with the morning update. Prev near-term disc as of 250 AM...The dew points quickly returned to the 70s overnight as the low level flow became more southerly. There have been a few showers and even isolated thunderstorms to our west and along the coast early today. NC continues to be on the very southern edge of a stronger belt of WSW mid level flow extending from KY eastward across VA. Another mid/upper level vort max is forecast to track in the stronger flow to our north this afternoon and evening. With a surface trough in place through the Piedmont of VA and NC, scattered convection is expected to develop this afternoon as strong heating occurs in the very moist air mass in place over our region. The convection should fire in the mountains and move eastward, with the highest POP across the northern sections closer to the stronger flow aloft. Convection should also favor areas along and east of the surface trough later this afternoon into the early evening. Therefore, the highest POP (50) will be across the northern and eastern zones with lowest POP in the southwest and far southern Piedmont (20). Locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and wind gusts to 40-50 mph should be common with the stronger storms. An isolated storm may become severe, with localized damaging wind the main threat (mainly from the Triad to the Triangle and areas northward). Highs today 88-96 N to S, held down by the increased clouds and convection north today. Dew points will be in the lower to mid 70s, and heat indices 95-100. Fayetteville to Goldsboro should see 100-103 heat indices, a bit below advisory criteria. QPF should range upward of 0.50 in the northeast with locally 1 inch totals. After the thunderstorms weaken with loss of heating this evening, an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible (20 percent or less for any one spot). Warm and humid conditions with partly cloudy skies expected. Lows tonight in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /Sunday through Sunday night/... As of 245 AM Saturday... Most areas will have a good chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening again Sunday. POP should be 50+ percent, especially aided by the surface trough, an approaching mid/upper level disturbance rounding the base of the upper trough, and strong heating in the very moist boundary layer. Highs should reach the upper 80s to mid 90s before convection overturns the boundary layer and cools the surface late. A few of the storms should again be strong and an isolated damaging wind gust or two can be expected during or just after peak heating. QFP should average 0.25 to 0.50 with local 1 inch totals expected. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... As of 1200 AM Saturday... Broad troughing aloft will prevail over the Carolinas and Mid- Atlantic early next week, transitioning to NW flow aloft mid-week as an upper level ridge re-strengthens over the lower MS river valley and Deep South, followed by ridging aloft mid/late next week as the aforementioned ridge builds E/NE over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. With the above in mind, expect near normal temperatures early next week with temperatures rising above normal by mid/late week as the aforementioned ridge builds over the region. With broad troughing aloft, expect near or above-normal chances for convection early next week, with chances somewhat more ambiguous in NW flow aloft by mid- week, falling below normal (dry perhaps) late-week as the ridge builds over the region. With central NC situated on the southern periphery of the westerlies and eventually a period of NW flow aloft, a potential for organized severe weather may exist early to mid-week if small amplitude waves and/or upstream convection /MCVs/ progress into/across the region, particularly in vicinity of peak heating. -Vincent && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday through Wednesday/... As of 650 AM Saturday... 24-Hour TAF period: Generally VFR conditions through noon, then there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Best chance will be from KGSO to KRDU to KRWI. A return to VFR conditions tonight and Sunday morning, except for some early morning LIFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS between 09Z and 12Z Sunday. Looking ahead: There will be a chance for sub-VFR conditions in showers/storms Sunday afternoon into Monday as the upper trough settles overhead and a front stalls over central or eastern NC. MVFR or IFR fog is possible each morning as well. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...Badgett is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.