Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 270556 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 155 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front will cross the area today, followed by high pressure that will persist over the region through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 940 PM EDT Monday... Very pleasant night over central NC as temperatures begin to sink into the 60s in some northern locations at this time with low 70s across the rest of the area. Some cloud cover across the central portion of the area will keep temperatures from bottoming out for a while but should still see some upper 50s in some locations across the nw Piedmont which has a better chance of seeing some clear skies for a while. Conditions should remain VFR through the overnight hours and winds are expected to be calm to light and variable. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... The s/w cross central NC late Tuesday/early Tuesday evening. Lift associated with the system, coupled with afternoon heating and available moisture should spark the development of a few showers by mid day across the Piedmont. This convective threat will spread into the Sandhills and coastal plain where coverage may be enhanced due to timing and slightly better low level moisture. Current CAM solutions are a little too robust considering current coverage across the lower Great Lakes/mid-MS Valley. Capped PoP at 30 percent east of highway 1 Tuesday afternoon-Tuesday evening. Variably cloudy skies and patchy showers will yield temperatures several degrees below normal for late June. High temps Tuesday upper 70s NW to the low-mid 80s southeast. The system will exit our eastern periphery early Tuesday evening with rain chances decreasing shortly after sunset. Subsidence in the wake of the system will lead to decreasing cloudiness with mostly clear skies anticipated after midnight. Where showers do occur Tuesday, residual moisture left in their wake under clearing skies may lead to the formation of patchy fog. Min temps generally 55-60. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM Monday... A mid level trough will continue moving east on Wednesday with a general west-to-east flow Thursday into early next week. At the surface, high pressure will crest over the region Wednesday, then settle offshore into early next week. Return flow around the high will yield gradually increasing temperatures and humidity levels. Scattered afternoon and evening convection will develop Saturday through Monday as instability and low level moisture reach sufficient levels. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday through Saturday/... As of 155 AM Tuesday... The approach of a mid-upper level disturbance and associated surface cold front will result in patchy mid-high level cloudiness today. Moisture will be in short supply, and while we may see a few showers, coverage is expected to be too low to include in the TAFS. Winds will shift to northerly at 6-8 knots this morning as the surface front moves southeast across central NC, reaching the coastal plain around mid day. High pressure will settle in behind the exiting disturbance tonight and linger through Thursday. As this high exits offshore Friday, the return southerly flow will advect a moist unstable air mass into our region, setting the stage for scattered afternoon-evening convection, and early morning low clouds and fog. Thus, the potential for periods of MVFR/IFR parameters will increase, beginning Friday morning and continuing into the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...MWS/Franklin AVIATION...mlm/CBL

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