Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 140834 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 335 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY... 1036MB SURFACE HIGH OVER INDIANA/OHIO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVER CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 1240M...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS IN OUTLYING AREAS. HIGH CLOUDS ACCELERATING THROUGH THE MID- MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL REACH THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE AS NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN RIDGES. RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CLOUDS WILL BE HIGH AND THIN AT FIRST...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID CLOUDS TO FOLLOW LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE TYPICALLY COLDEST SPOTS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 9-15. SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS FOR MOST AREAS. SUNDAY: ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES VERY ZONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO CALM AND SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE MORNING...BUT IT ALSO MEANS THAT THE ARCTIC AIR THAT WAS BROUGHT INTO PLACE TODAY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE PLACE TO GO AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH EXPECTED HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. FURTHER HINDERING ANY EFFECTS OF INSOLATION...A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO WE WONT GET ANY HELP WITH TEMPERATURES THERE...PERHAPS IN THE EAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY... SFC COLD FRONT ATTENDANT WITH THE S/W CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WEST-TO-EAST THROUGH 17Z. WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO AID TO DISSIPATE CLOUD COVERAGE AND LEAD TO A FAIRLY MILD AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE. ANOTHER S/W WILL CROSS IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BASICALLY BE MOISTURE STARVED THOUGH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE VA BORDER.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY... AMPLIFIED L/W TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF FEBRUARY WILL RELAX...LEADING TO S/W IDGING ALOFT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEEP ZONAL FLOW...INITIATING A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WED-FRI. THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE NW LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BACK THE FLOW TO A MORE SW DIRECTION...PUMPING WARM AIR RESIDING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC. AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE INTO THE WEEK WHEN AN UPTICK IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND A SW FLOW YIELDS MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS WEAK.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1240 AM SUNDAY... AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. THUS...SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY...AND THICKEN/LOWER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BETWEEN 03Z-08Z...EXPANDING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NC AFTER 08Z. A MIX BAG OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW HALF...AND THE SNOW TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN THEN RAIN ACROSS THE SE HALF. THE SNOW WILL BECOME FREEZING RAIN THEN RAIN ACROSS THE NW HALF MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS COVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN SHOWERS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR FEB 14TH. REC YR REC YR LOW LOW MAX ---------------------------------------------- GSO: 02/14 6 1905 22 1914 RDU: 02/14 -2 1899 27 1916 FAY: 02/14 12 1968 33 1916 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ007-021>023-038-039. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ008>010-024>026-040-041-073>076. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...ELLIS/SMITH SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION...WSS CLIMATE...RAH

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