Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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759 FXUS62 KRAH 030600 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1255 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build into the Carolinas from the northwest through Saturday night. A storm system will move from northern Mexico across Texas and the Gulf Coast states into the Southeast states Sunday through Tuesday, bringing unsettled weather for North Carolina.
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&& .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 855 PM Friday... Little change required to the near term forecast. Surface high pressure centered over the central Plains will continue to gradually drift east-southeast overnight into Saturday. This weather feature along with a dry wly flow aloft should maintain clear-mostly clear skies overnight across central NC. The dry air in place at the surface has allowed temps to drop into the 40s and upper 30s early this evening. The temps will stabilize overnight, resulting in min temperatures generally in the low-mid 30s, with upper 20s/around 30 in the well sheltered locations in the Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 PM Friday... Timing of the approaching storm system that is expected to develop over Texas and the NW Gulf of Mexico is still expected Sunday night and Monday; however, as high pressure at the surface extends down the eastern seaboard later in the weekend, moisture will return from the Atlantic as a coastal front forms Saturday through Sunday. This means increasing clouds and chilly temperatures Saturday into Sunday. We will begin to increase the chance of light rain/drizzle with the coastal front to the SE on Sunday afternoon and night. Depending on how much precip falls, cold air damming (CAD) will most likely develop Sunday and linger as the system approaches early next week. We will trend POP up Sunday afternoon and night and trend temperatures down below guidance Sunday anticipating the development of CAD with the cool/dry air initially in place aiding in it`s development. Many Piedmont areas may stay in the 40s Sunday depending on timing of rain and CAD development. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 205 PM Friday... A weak wave will move up the Carolina coast early Monday and depending upon its track could bring some rain to central NC and points east. The best chances for rain will be across the south and east before a lull in precipitation on Monday afternoon and evening. The real weather maker of the long term will be Monday night and Tuesday with a Miller B scenario that will bring two lows out of the deep south, one which will move up the coast and the other west of the Appalachians and up through the Tennessee Valley. The upshot is an extended period of rain Monday night and Tuesday with enough dynamic to bring some heavier amounts to the area. That being said, forecast soundings are very stable with a strong warm nose over the area that will be hard to overcome so the threat for any thunder at this time seems low but a change in the track of the coastal low could change that. Warmer but a large temperature gradient across the area with low 50s in the Triad to low 60s in the southeast. Wednesday and Thursday will be tranquil and mild with clear to scattered clouds. A few showers cross the region Thursday evening in advance of a much colder airmass moving southeastward from the central US. Precipitation should be well east of the area by the time surface temperatures fall to or below 0C. 1000-500 mb thicknesses in the 1510 to 1520 range on Friday so max temps will be in the 40s. Minimum temperatures Friday night will be in the 20s, perhaps in the upper teens in the Triad. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday through Wednesday/...
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As of 1255 AM Saturday... High confidence in VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region today, with deep dry air as mid level ridging shifts over the Southeast states. Only a thin veil of high clouds is expected across the area today, although clouds will become more opaque with lowering bases to 12,000-18,000 ft AGL late today through midnight tonight as upper level perturbations emanating from the developing storm system over N Mexico track ENE toward the Carolinas. Surface winds will be light from the NW through daybreak, then from the NW around 8-10 kts through sundown, becoming light/variable once again tonight. Looking beyond 06z Sun: Mid clouds will continue to thicken and lower late tonight, dropping to 5,000-6,000 ft AGL by early Sunday, with light rain spreading in during the day Sunday from the SW as the upper level disturbances break down the mid level ridge. Confidence is high that conditions will deteriorate further to IFR Sunday evening/night and remain poor at IFR or LIFR into early Monday with periods of rain, particularly south. Some improvement to MVFR or even briefly VFR on Monday, but should quickly drop again to IFR/LIFR Monday night into Tuesday evening with rain areawide. Rain should taper off Tuesday night but IFR/LIFR conditions may hold through daybreak Wednesday, followed by improvement to VFR by midday Wednesday. The potential for low level wind shear will remain a concern, especially Sunday night and again on Tuesday. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Franklin/Ellis AVIATION...Hartfield

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