Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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278 FXUS62 KRAH 260629 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 229 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will extend across the Southeast states today into Saturday, as a weak trough extends down through western and central North Carolina. An upper level disturbance will cross the region late Saturday through Saturday night, followed by another disturbance Sunday afternoon.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 955 PM Thursday... A mid-upper low centered near the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue to lift northeastward and away from the area overnight. Given this along with the main trough axis now to the east of the area expect dry conditions for the rest of the night. Thus, expect clearing skies overnight with a cooler and drier air mass in place for tonight. Expect we will maintain a WSW to southwesterly breeze overnight as the mslp gradient should continue to remain somewhat tight. Given this expect temps will fall into the 50s overnight at most spots, with a few locations across the southeastern reaches of the area only bottoming out near 60. Ridging and drier airmass on Friday will support clear to scattered clouds with max temperatures 80 to 85. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 430 PM Thursday... The mid and upper level low over new England at the start of the period will depart as the upper level flow over the mid-Atlantic becomes more westerly Friday night as an upper level ridge develops across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Increasing mid and and high level moisture will result in some high cloudiness. Lows will range in the lower to mid 60s. A general westerly to west-northwesterly flow aloft is expected for Saturday and Saturday night across the mid-Atlantic. A good warm advection pattern will develop across the deep south and Southeast. This will result in the development of a warm front that extends from the southern Appalachians into the VA and NC and subsequent scattered convection. The best chance of thunderstorms will be across the northeast half of the CWA, primarily Saturday afternoon and evening. It will be noticeably warmer and a bit more humid with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the southeast. Lows will range in the mid 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... As of 430 PM Thursday... A ridge aloft across the northern Gulf of Mexico will shift east and off the Southeast coast by Wednesday and Thursday. A mid and upper level closed low over central Canada will slowly move southeast into the Great Lakes region by the middle of the week with a trough axis pushing east toward the coast. A weak cold front will approach the region late Sunday and drop into the region on Monday supporting scattered, mainly afternoon or evening convection. It will be muggy with highs will range in the mid 80s to near 80 both days with lows in mid 60s to lower 70s. Another cold front will approach the region on Tuesday, move across the region on Wednesday and linger around the area on Thursday. This should result in a trend toward slightly cooler and less humid conditions as we head toward the middle of the work week. Scattered storms expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening will lead to drier conditions on Wednesday and perhaps Thursday too. Highs will range in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 220 AM Friday... Strong subsidence, behind the upper level trough and accompanying hail storms that crossed central NC on Thu, will result in VFR conditions through the 24 hour TAF period. SWly surface winds will be the primary aviation concern as they increase into the low to mid teens kts, with gusts around 20 kts, mainly between 14-20Z - highest east/at RWI. Outlook: At least a couple of clusters of showers and storms, some severe, will return to portions of central NC this weekend - one mainly over the northern half of the forecast area but with gusty outflow winds surging well away from them late Sat and early Sat night, then another on Sun. The approach and stall of a couple of cold fronts east of the Appalachians will result in a small chance of diurnal convection Mon and Tue afternoon.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...BSD/JF SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...MWS

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