Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 220554 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 154 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY... DRY COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z...MARKING THE START OF WHAT WILL BE A STRETCH OF VERY COMFORTABLE PLEASANT WX ACROSS CENTRAL NC. CLEARING WILL BE DELAYED INITIALLY...WITH A PERIOD OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND UPPER SPEED MAXIMA PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY... SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT...COUPLED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM MOSTLY DRY AND INTRODUCE A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING TREND STARTING IN THE LOWER 60S ON MONDAY MORNING AND MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY MID WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...KEEPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDING MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE COAST COULD MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MOISTURE ENCROACHING ON THE PIEDMONT TRIAD TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEST OF US HIGHWAY 1 AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING THE STALLED FRONT TO THE WEST TO IMPINGE ON PARTS OF CENTRAL NC. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AREAS EAST OF ROUTE 1 COULD REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AS DETAILS EMERGE ABOUT POTENTIAL THUNDER LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR LOOKS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED IS RWI...AND LOW CLOUDINESS WILL BE SCATTERING AND THEN CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...MLM

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