Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 020702 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 302 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH MON NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 913 PM SATURDAY... THE CURRENT SFC DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE RANGING FROM THE UPPER-50S TO MID 60S...ALONG WITH THE 00Z GSO SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS A PWAT OF ONLY 0.76"...BASICALLY TELLS THE WHOLE STORY...UNUSUALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST...OVERNIGHT WE`LL SEE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 60S...COOLEST NW. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS EVENING. PREV NEAR TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY... A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY IN VICINITY OF THE NC COAST AS IT IS TRAPPED BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. UNDER THE LIGHT/CALM WIND REGIME AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD LOWER INTO THE 60S...NEAR 70 OVER THE SE. SUNDAY`S WEATHER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH LOTS OF SUN...LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 50S OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES IN THE 1425-1435M RANGE IS SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPS IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY... CONTINUED HOT AND MAINLY DRY THIS PERIOD AS WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION CHANGES LITTLE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE DOMINATE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY`S WEATHER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WHILE A WEAK SFC HIGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT LOTS OF SUN...LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 50S OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES IN THE 1425-1435M RANGE IS SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPS IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. BY MONDAY...THE SFC HIGH FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH ALLOWS THE COASTAL TROUGH TO RETROGRADE INTO THE PIEDMONT. THE DEMISE OF THE SFC HIGH MAY BE A LITTLE PREMATURE AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO WEAKENS SFC HIGHS OVER THE SE U.S. TOO QUICKLY. THUS EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR SE...AND MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 90S. WHILE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE 50S-NEAR 60 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS MAY CREEP BACK INTO THE UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NW TO AROUND 70 SE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY... THURSDAY AND WEDNESDAY: LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER CENTRAL NC WILL BE VERY ZONAL WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE JET LIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THIS PERIOD AND MOST OF THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE OCCASIONAL DIURNAL SHOWER POPPING UP ON SURFACE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE SEA BREEZE. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE LOW CONFIDENCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE A FEW THINGS WE DO KNOW FOR SURE. NUMBER ONE IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE AREA. NUMBER TWO IS THAT SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES UPSTREAM WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA OR AT LEAST SKIRT CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ARE TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER HERE IN CENTRAL NC. THREE IS THAT ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS INCREASING...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE NOT INCREASING ALL THAT MUCH...THEREFORE WHILE WE CAN EXPECT INCREASE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINNING ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL FAIRLY SMALL. TOUGHER TO DETERMINE WILL BE THE TIMING OR EXACT LOCATIONS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT AT ALL WITH TIMING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE. CURRENTLY...MODELS ARE PREDICTING THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A GAP BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND SHORTWAVE WHICH IS DUE TO ARRIVE FRIDAY EVENING WHICH MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR A WHILE BEFORE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING A FULL ON SURFACE LOW ON SATURDAY AS IT SLIDES OFF OF THE EAST COAST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S DURING THIS PERIOD BUT WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY... GENERALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE FOLLOWED GIVEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND NEARBY AIR MASSES FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. AS SUCH...RWI WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF IFR-MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND FAY AS WELL SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER VERSUS THIS TIME LAST NIGHT...OWING TO THE SLIGHT NOCTURNAL RETREAT OF A FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MARITIME TROPICAL AIR INTO SOUTHEASTERN NC. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NC...INCLUDING AT FAY AND RWI...THIS PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. OUTLOOK: A BRIEF PERIOD IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS...AND SHOWERS...WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON AT FAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. A LINGERING SHOWER OR STORM WILL CONTINUE AT THERE SOUTHEASTERN NC AS THE LOW TRACKS ONLY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MON NIGHT.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...RAH/WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...26

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