Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 250546 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 145 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY... FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: CONTINUED DRY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL PUSH SE OFF THE SC/GA COAST THIS MORNING... LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHES IN FROM THE SW... WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN ALSO FROM THE SW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS INCLUDING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORT DEEP DRY AIR OVER NC TODAY WITH STABLE MID LEVELS. PLENTIFUL SUN AND THICKNESSES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS OF 72-76. STRONG VORTICITY DIVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BASE OF A LOW CROSSING SE CANADA WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT (NOW OVER THE MIDWEST) TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NC TONIGHT. SURFACE FLOW FROM THE WEST OR WSW WILL PICK UP A BIT WITH THE TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENT... HOWEVER THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD HOLD NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A SHALLOW POCKET OF MOISTURE FROM 850-750 MB DROPPING SE THROUGH NC ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE AT THIS LEVEL... HOWEVER THE DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER... AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE LARGE PART OF TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY STIRRED NEAR-SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT... AND EXPECT LOWS OF 45-50. FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND STABLE MID LEVELS WILL PERSIST OVER NC. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE DAY WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LIFT NE AWAY FROM OUR AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT DIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NE NC SUN... HOWEVER THE DIP IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND BE CONFINED TO FAR NRN AND NE NC. IN FACT... THICKNESSES OVER THE SRN CWA SHOULD BE SEVERAL METERS HIGHER SUN THAN SAT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... PERHAPS TOUCHING 80 IN THE SC BORDER COUNTIES... WITH SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT... AND THE CALMING AIR AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL FACILITATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING... FAVORING LOWS A TAD BELOW NORMAL... 40-47. -GIH
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&& .SHORT TERM / /...
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AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY... TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 302 PM FRIDAY... WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THEN A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH TUESDAY. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A MEAN WESTERLY FLOW MEAN DRYING AND WARMING FOR CENTRAL NC. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH OR SURPASS 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY... THEN SHOULD MAX OUT TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY SOME MID 80S. THESE READINGS SHOULD BE CLOSE... BUT NOT QUITE AT THE DAILY RECORDS FOR OCTOBER 28... WHICH ARE 86... 86... AND 87 AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY (ALL RECORDED IN 1919. SLIGHT COOLING WILL BEGIN MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY 80 AGAIN IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE ZONES WEDNESDAY WITH THE SW FLOW AT 10-15 MPH. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NNE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE "BACKDOOR" FRONT. CAUTION IS ADVISED ON THE EXTENT SOUTHWARD THAT THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT GIVEN THE MODEL FORECASTS OF A FAIRLY "WEAK` SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD... DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT MAY STALL WEST TO EAST ACROSS NC... AND THIS MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH IF THE CURRENT MODELS VERIFY WITH THE LACK OF PUSH OF CAA WITH THE 1016-1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. REGARDLESS... THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT RAIN ALONG THIS FRONT... AND IT SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AS A NEW STORM TRACKS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MEAN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL DRIVE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. A PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD FOLLOW THE FRONT... BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EVEN BEHIND THIS FRONT AS THE COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL NOT GET PUSHED TO OUR LATITUDE YET.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH OFF THE SC/GA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING... AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL NOSE NORTHEASTWARD OVER NC TODAY INTO TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIR FROM THE LOW LEVELS ON UP WILL MINIMIZE CLOUD COVER... AND ONLY SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN CLOUDS BASED ABOVE 6 000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED FROM MID EVENING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES NC FROM THE NORTH. THE ONE EXCEPTION: WE ARE WATCHING OUT FOR POTENTIAL SHALLOW PATCHY FOG MAINLY AFFECTING RWI EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. BUT AT THIS TIME THE POTENTIAL LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT... COMING FROM A SW/W/NW DIRECTION UNDER 6 KTS TODAY... BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT MAINLY NW TONIGHT. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SUN MORNING... PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AT ALL SITES 09Z-13Z SUN... BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH INITIAL DRY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NW TRANSITIONING TO A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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