Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 091501 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1000 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY... WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RADAR ECHOES EAST OF I- 95 WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB AND PERIODS OF FOCUS LIFT...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF LIFT AND MOISTURE...KEYING ON A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MISSOURI THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON..TO PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW MUCH LESS POTENTIAL...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 18Z. EVEN WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BASED LARGELY ON DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 850MB... WETBULB PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER BELOW ~1000 FT WOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS...OR SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY... COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY... ...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND... THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. && .AVIATION /12Z TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY... AREAS OF FOG HAVE LIFTED TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS. MIXING WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10- 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING... AND FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. NO VSBYS OR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...BADGETT

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