Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 090718 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 218 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A strong and cold high pressure centered from Alberta Canada into the northern Plains will continue building SE toward NC through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Friday... The expansive arctic high pressure currently centered over nation`s mid-section will build slowly eastward into the area through the weekend. Aloft, trailing channeled shortwave energy, associated with the closed low moving out over the Canadian Maritimes will traverse the Mid-Atlantic region today. However, it will prove of little consequence as the cP airmass in place(PWATS ~ 0.10") is just too dry to support any clouds. With H8 temps -10 Celsius(2 to 3 standard deviations below normal) and low-level thicknesses bottoming around 1275 meters(45 meters below normal), temperatures will will run a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows in upper teens to lower 20s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM Friday... Flow aloft transitions to zonal on Saturday. Otherwise, very little little change as the modified arctic high pressure migrates east atop the region. Temperatures Saturday and Saturday night will be very similar to today and tonight. Highs 40 to 45. Lows 20 to 25. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 310 PM Thursday... A Pacific shortwave trough, embedded within fast and broadly cyclonic flow across much of the Lower 48, will support a migratory wave of low pressure from the TX panhandle Sun to the Nrn Appalachians Mon. A preceding warm/coastal front will retreat Nwwd across central NC with an associated chance of showers during that time (Sun-Mon). Temperatures will moderate with the retreat of the warm front, and clouds. The trailing cold front, and continued chance of showers, will follow and cross NC late Mon-early Tue. Uncertainty in the mid to late week forecast remains above average. There are indications that a flat frontal wave will zip off the SE U.S. during the middle of the week; and this feature may spread a shield of light rain across NC late Tue-Wed. Thereafter, the models continue to indicate another cold frontal passage and associated arrival of colder temperatures will occur by Wed night-Thu, but recent model runs have backed off somewhat on how far S the next dome of arctic air will plunge. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1245 AM FRIDAY... 24-Hour TAF period: Very Dry air associated with the cP airmass building into the area will support VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will be northwesterly, generally 5-10 mph overnight, increasing to around 10 mph with gusts of 15-20 mph in the afternoon. Looking ahead: VFR conditions are expected through the weekend. There is a small chance of sub-VFR ceilings on Sunday, with better chances Monday and Tuesday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett/Smith NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...CBL

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