Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 240611 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 109 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure aloft will be over the region today. The ridge will shift east and offshore in advance of a cold front that will cross the area on Saturday. Expect near record warmth ahead of the front, with cooler temperatures on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 109 AM FRIDAY... The hi-res models seem to be failing as they are overdoing fog development. Most likely - due to one of the driest February`s on record. Dry ground in most areas is not favorable for widespread dense fog development under high pressure aloft. Therefore, we will update to trend toward much less fog, except in low lying areas that cool to saturation more quickly. Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s rural areas into the lower 60s in urban areas at 100 am. This huge spread is typical in clear nights with light and variable winds under high pressure. Lows generally expected to be in the 40s, except 50-55 urban centers. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM THURSDAY... Strong mid/upper level ridging and associated sinking air will combine with strengthening southerly return flow and dry soil conditions to make Friday day two of three of near record warmth across the region. Low-level thicknesses Friday afternoon are forecast to be aoa 1380 meters, which is 50 meters above normal and more representative of late April/early May, as opposed to late February. Highs should approach 80 in many areas, with mid 70s NW. Expect another warm night with an increase in mid and high clouds from the west during the predawn hours as the front progress eastward in the southern and central Appalachians. Lows in the mid to upper 50s, which could challenge record hi-min temps(warmest night). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 355 PM Thursday... A cold front will cross the region on Saturday late in the day as a low pressure system moves into Quebec. Since the frontal passage will be later, this will allow high temperatures to soar no near 80 degrees in the southeast with low to mid 70s across the NW Piedmont. Moisture with this system is limited but will be greatest along the VA border. This is where the most rain could be expected which could be up to a half of an inch in heavier showers but the majority of locations will see less than a tenth of an inch. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front as well as there will be some instability but also a cap in the mid-levels to try to overcome. Saturday night skies will clear out and the temperature will drop significantly into the mid 30s to low 40s for overnight lows. Sunday and Monday will be mostly dry as surface high pressure moves over the area with a warming trend for temperatures that will top out in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees on Sunday but climb back into the 60-70 degree range on Monday with coolest temps in the NW and warmest in southeastern counties. Guidance really begins to break down from Monday night really through the rest of the period as differences in timing and intensity of several systems affect the forecast next week. In general, two systems are expected to move across the area, the first a southern stream wave that develops into a low pressure system. Second will be a low over the plains that drags a cold front across the area near the end of the work week. As a result must keep rain chances in the forecast from Monday night onward through Thursday but wouldn`t expect it to rain that entire time. Instead expect one shot of rain and potentially thunder midweek and a second near the end of the week. Future model runs will iron out these differences to give a clearer picture over the next couple of days. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1255 AM Friday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Strong high pressure aloft will build over the region today, while surface high pressure continues to extend into the area. This will result in mainly VFR conditions for the 24 hour TAF period. However, with mostly clear skies and calm to light and variable winds we may see some fog or very low stratus develop this morning, especially at fog prone KRWI (where IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible). Elsewhere, expect we may see some MVFR/IFR visbys around daybreak. Any sub-VFR visbys should quickly lift within an hour of sunrise or so. However, we may see a brief period of MVFR stratocumulus from 13-16Z, before and cigs lift into the VFR range and further scatter. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with south to southeasterly winds of 08 kts or less. Outlook: VFR conditions should hold through Fri evening, but once again sub-VFR stratus/fog are expected to form across central NC late Fri night, most likely after 08z, and these should trend to VFR before 14z Sat. A few showers and isolated storms are possible Sat afternoon, mainly INT/GSO/RDU, as a cold front crosses the area, however VFR conditions will dominate. VFR conditions will return Sat night, lasting through at least Mon as high pressure builds into and over the region. The chance for sub-VFR conditions and a few showers will return Mon night into Tue as a warm front shifts northward through the area. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...BSD/Hartfield

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