Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 280727 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 310 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TODAY... AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... AS OF 935 PM WEDNESDAY... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYNOPTIC FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/CENTRAL VA AND THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST NC... A FUNCTION OF THE COOLER MARINE AIR DRIVING THE FRONT SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF NC HAVE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR... RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHT TEMP DROP TO ITS NORTH BUT STILL VERY WARM AND HUMID. THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB IN RECENT RUNS... RESTRICTING THE HIGH SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH... EVEN CORRECTLY DEVELOPING ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN... SO HAVE LARGELY RELIED ON IT FOR THIS UPDATE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT... WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY... SOMETHING LIKELY TO BE LACKING ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... A TREND TO BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE NEAR DAYBREAK WITH THE ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE/MCV FROM THE SW AND IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS / RECENT TRENDS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE... HAVE NUDGED UP LOWS TO 63-67. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY... FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE BOTH SETTING UP TO BE DRIER AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC. IT WILL TURN COOLER ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND... AND BRIEFLY EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHOW THE COOLING ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH WITH 70S EXPECTED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER RANGING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER COUNTIES. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... IT SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY... THEN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS SATURDAY. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. WE WILL NOT BIT ON THAT JUST YET. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NOW LOOK TO BE WET WITH PERIODS OF RAIN... BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON SUNDAY. MODELS OFTEN SCOUR OUT CAD TOO QUICKLY... EVEN IN THE SPRING (WARM SEASON). THIS LOOKS TO BE A GREAT CASE OF THAT OVER OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF WAA RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION WITH AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF WESTERN ATLANTIC THEN GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE DEVELOPING FRONT/THEN COOL STABLE DOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND USING THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH ALONG WITH PATTERN RECOGNITION... THE MAIN PARENT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUT AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY... A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS SUNDAY. HOWEVER... IN-SITU/HYBRID CAD WILL LEAD TO INCREASING STABILITY AND THE DIABATIC PROCESS SHOULD THE RAIN BECOME WIDESPREAD AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.75 FOR THE QPF. THERE MAY BE A RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND RAINFALL GRADIENT FROM SE TO NW FROM CLINTON TO WINSTON-SALEM BY LATE SUNDAY IF THE WARM FRONT CAN SURGE INTO THE SE ZONES (PER SOME OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST EC). SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THEN WHEN THE FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH... IT MOSTLY LIKELY WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES INTO TUESDAY. FOR THOSE THAT NEED RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES... THIS LOOKS TO BE A GREAT SHOT AT BOTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF S/WS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CAUSE BOUTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CENTRAL NC. THE FIRST MINOR S/W WILL CROSS NEAR OR NORTH OF OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE COOL POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS...PRIMARILY OVER OUR NE PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BUT QUICKLY SCOOT EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPROACHING S/W TRAVERSING THE DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...LEADING TO AREAS OF RAIN BREAKING OUT OVER OUR REGION BY SUNDAY. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HYBRID/INSITU COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT...SUGGESTING TEMPS WELL BE LOW NORMAL IF THE RAIN DEVELOPS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ADVERTISING A PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WITH A WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND EASTERN US.S TROUGH. DISTURBANCES IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE SHY OF NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 850 PM WEDNESDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64 IS PROGGED BY THE LATEST HRRR TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH 28/06Z BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO VA LATER OVERNIGHT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT THAT`S CURRENTLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. AS SUCH THROUGH 28/12Z...KINT/KGSO...ALONG WITH KRWI...WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A PASSING SHOWER WITH BRIEFLY SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. FROM 28/15Z THROUGH 29/00Z...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...SOME RESULTING IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE WX DISTURBANCE THAT`S CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. BRIEF WIND GUSTS AOA 35KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LOOKING AHEAD: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ...BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS RETURN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FROM POTENTIAL CAD. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...RAH/CBL

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