Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS62 KRAH 300125
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
925 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Tropical cyclone Bonnie will track inland along the South
Carolina coast today, then turn northeast and track along the North
Carolina coast through early next week.
.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 925 PM EDT...
Tropical cyclone Bonnie has been nearly stationary over the past
several hours. A slight jog to the northeast is expected late
Convective coverage has certainly been on a wane since loss of
daytime heating. And despite the tropical moisture in place (PWS of
1.75-2.0"...1 to 2 S.D. above normal), much of the Hi-res CAMS
indicate this lull will continue through most of the night.
Will trim back pops for the remainder of the night, with chance pops
over the Piedmont while keeping likely pops in the east where
continued DCVA to the northeast of the circulation center, lifting
atop the inverted trough/coastal front extending along the I-95
corridor will provide the best focus for lift and showers overnight.
Expect a wide range in temperatures overnight with lows in the
lower/mid 60s NW where CADish airmass resides, to lower 70s
over the easter/southeastern counties, east of the sfc trough
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /Monday through Monday night/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...
The remnants of TD Bonnie are expected to track very slowly ENE from
northeastern SC into southeastern NC Monday and Monday night.
Additional locally heavy rain is expected over portions of central
NC with the main focus likely along or near the track of the low.
This would place the SE Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain in
the heaviest QPF of 1 to 1.5 inches with locally higher totals. POP
and QPF will be lower back in the NW Piedmont where some drier
low level air will advect off the higher terrain into the far
western Piedmont lowering the PW`s and lift there. Skies should
range from Cloudy down east to variably cloudy in the western
Piedmont. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the eastern
third of the region with much more scattered showers to the west.
Highs Monday will again be held down by the clouds and rain,
especially in the east where readings will be in the 70s to near 80.
Highs in the western Piedmont should be around 80. Lows generally in
the 65-70 range.
.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
As of 205 PM Sunday...
The remnants of TD Bonnie are still expected to be a factor into
Tuesday and possibly Wednesday for eastern sections of NC. We will
follow the latest NHC forecasts which indicates a very slow moving
depression finally beginning to get steered a bit quicker NE along
the coast Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.
Models are in good agreement in depicting the highest
POP near the coast along a low level boundary and very
near the track of the low. This appears very reasonable although
there will be a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms inland
with the QPF much lower than along the track of the low. QPF of
0.25 to 0.50 with locally higher totals can be expected over the far
eastern Coastal Plain with QPF of 0.25 or less inland over much of
central NC. Day time temperatures will be held in check but the
humidity levels will remain high. Expect highs to reach back into
the 80-85 range Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the mid to upper
Later in the week, expect the influence of the TD to give way as the
remnant low is bumped east as mid level troughing moves out of the
Rockies and heads eastward. This system should approach the
Appalachians and mid-Atlantic region next weekend and is expected to
bring significant convective rains at times by the end of the week
into the weekend. A slow moving cold front is expected to stall over
the SE states by the weekend focusing heavy QPF. Lows will be well
above normal 65-70 and highs in the 80s cooling into the 75-82 range
.AVIATION /00Z Monday through Friday/...
As of 800 PM Sunday...
24-hr TAF Period: Scattered MVFR/IFR conditions associated with
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be most likely to affect the
KRDU/KFAY/KRWI terminals during the next couple of hours. Although
models continue to show current activity falling apart before it
reaches the Triad, a few showers may reach KGSO and KINT this
evening. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers will persist
through the remainder of the TAF period in association with nearby
tropical cyclone Bonnie. Bonnie (or Bonnie`s remnants) are expected
to stall, then track slowly northeast through coastal NC on Monday
and Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm coverage and intensity should
increase once again on Monday as Bonnie (or the remains) get closer
and daytime heating commences.
Looking ahead: Sub-VFR condition associated with showers, isolated
thunderstorms and low ceilings will persist through mid-week as
Bonnie`s remnants track slowly northeast along the NC coast. Then a
front is expected to approach from the west to end the work week out.