Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 191431 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1020 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OFF THE THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/ ...
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AS OF 1020 AM SATURDAY... THE SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. A MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH HAS WORKED NE INTO THE SE PART OF NC. HOWEVER... THE DEEP LAYERED ENE FLOW WAS CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS ALL OF NC. THIS MOISTURE WAS BEING LIFTED UP AND OVER THE COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW NEAR JAX ALONG THE SC/NC COAST CREATING LARGE AREAS OF RAIN OVER NC. THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A FILLING IN OF THE AREA IN THE SE WHERE THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AFFECTED EARLIER. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN IS NOT AS HEAVY AS THE FIRST ROUND THAT HAS MOVED TO THE OUTER BANKS AND IMMEDIATE NC COAST - PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/FILL BACK IN OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE DEEP LAYER LIFT IN THE LOWER TO MID LAYERS CONTINUES DUE TO THE VERY SLOW MOVING LOW. RADAR TRENDS ALSO SUPPORT THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS IN DEPICTING THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN TO SLOWLY BEGIN TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST (AND OUT OF FAR NW NC) BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REST OF THE REGION. QPF OF AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.50 APPEARS REASONABLE ON TOP OF THE 0.25 NORTH TO 1.50 TOTALS SOUTH THUS FAR. DUE TO THE NE FLOW... RAIN... AND CAD DEVELOPING... WE WILL LOWER TEMPS BACK - TO SHOW THE STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN THE INTERIOR OF CENTRAL NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY... FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY OFF SAVANNAH EARLY SUN THEN SLOWLY FILL AS IT HEADS ESE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HANGING ON IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER OVER NC SUNDAY... WITH A PERSISTENT COOL AND BRISK NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW FEEDING IN FROM THE CHILLY BUT PROGRESSIVE AND MODIFYING SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15-20 M BELOW NORMAL... INDICATING HIGHS NEARLY 2 CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS OF 64-68... WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. CLEARING SKIES SUN NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH A CONTINUED ATLANTIC FETCH TO BRING ABOUT PATCHY LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. LOWS 40-47. -GIH THE SLOW MOVING CUT OFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NC. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS SHOULD BACK AROUND TO MORE NORTHERLY THAN NORTHEASTERLY AND ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. THE NAM ISNT QUITE AS DRY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOWING SOME MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850MB EAST OF I-95. WHILE THE AIRMASS WONT BEGIN TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL TUESDAY...STRONGER HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL OF UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE PROJECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...LOWS WILL BE MUCH MORE MILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S WEST AND UPPER 40S EAST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MODELS CURRENTLY FORECAST A DEWPOINT RECOVERY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHICH COMBINED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUGGEST WEAK INSTABILITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST. MODEST SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT WITHOUT BETTER UPPER SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ISOLATED AT THIS POINT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY... BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN US ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY AS THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MAYBE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THEN QUICKLY REBOUND ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS NEXT SYSTEM RESEMBLES THE EARLY WEAK SYSTEM...THOUGH POTENTIALLY WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM THE GULF. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 740 AM SATURDAY... AN EXPANSIVE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED ON THE FL GULF COAST WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS LINGERED THROUGH THE NIGHT... BUT VSBYS HAVE VASCILLATED AMONG VFR / MVFR / IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. CIGS ARE LIKELY TO VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR (AS MVFR CLOUDS SHIFT FROM SCT TO BKN AND BACK TO SCT AGAIN) THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY... CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT ANY PARTICULAR TIME TODAY IS VERY LOW. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS THROUGH 19Z. AFTER AROUND 19-21Z AT INT/GSO/RWI/RDU... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO PREVAILING VFR AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR NOSES IN FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH... WITH JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE AT MOST FROM 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD (12Z SUN). EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT FAY 06Z-09Z. LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SUN... EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AT FAY TO VFR BY 12Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH MON NIGHT. PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NW WILL BRING A RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUE/TUE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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