Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 281842 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 245 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY... NEARLY STATIONARY CONVECTION ACTIVITY FIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE SANDHILLS...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TROF WHICH WAS COINCIDENT WITH A DIFFERNTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DUE TO THE MORNINGS STRATUS COVERAGE. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL ACTIVITY WILL BE WANING QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION THIS EVENING AND WILL THUSLY END ALL LINGERING POPS BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING EARLY TONIGHT... SETTING THE STAGE FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN THE MORNING... MAINLY THOSE FORTUNATE AREAS WHICH GET SOME APPRECIABLE RAIN. MINS WILL BE PERSISTENCE IN THE UNCHANGED AIRMASS...MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY... DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA AND PRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MORE STRONGLY AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR ITS SUBSEQUENT MIGRATION INTO THE TRIAD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING AND PERSISTENTLY MILD TOMORROW NIGHT...MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY... TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON- WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY... AS EXPECTED...DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALMOST RANDOMLY ACROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE TAFS DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD DISTRIBUTION...BUT A SHOWER OR STORM AT ONE OF THE SITES CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR VISIBILITES AND PATCHY LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PREDAWN...10-13Z TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY IF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURS AT ANY OF THE SITES THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY MIDMORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND EVEN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MORE STRONGLY. OUTLOOK: THE THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLM NEAR TERM...MLM SHORT TERM...CMLM LONG TERM...KCP AVIATION...MLM

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