Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 201329 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 929 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level trough will move into central NC later today, then drift sewd through Thursday. Otherwise, an upper level high over the Ohio Valley and Tropical Cyclone Jose meandering off the southern New England coast will result in warm and dry conditions across central NC through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 929 AM Wednesday... An upper level disturbance that can be seen dropping sewd into the southern Appalachians, will drift slowly over central NC later today and tonight. This system interacting with a slightly unstable air mass owing to favored diurnal timing and resultant steep low-level lapse rates, will trigger a few showers and garden variety t-storms late today into the evening hours. High temperatures today will average a solid 5-8 degrees above normal, ranging from upper 80s across the NW Piedmont to lower 90s across the Sandhill and southern Coastal Plain. For areas that hit the 90 degree mark, this would mark the end to a 2-week sub 90 degree hiatus. Convection will be largely diurnally driven, so expect coverage to diminish during the evening. However, with the upper disturbance(s) drifting slowly ESE across the forecast area, can`t rule out a stray shower. Min temps in the mid-upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Wednesday... Thursday and Thursday night, our stretch of warm temperatures will continue, with afternoon highs in the 85-90 degree range. the heating of the marginally moist and slightly unstable air mass will support the development of scattered showers and storms, primarily across the Sandhills into the southern coastal plain. Bulk of the convection will dissipate with loss of heating though isolated showers/storms still possible through midnight near the South Carolina border. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 AM Wednesday... Central NC will generally be under the influence of high pressure through much of the extended forecast period, resulting in a predominantly dry forecast. However, a weak trough over the region could result in some showers on Friday, primarily in the southwest, but chances are no more than slight. Also, expect skies to be mostly sunny/partly cloudy through the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s. The forecast for Sunday onward remains somewhat uncertain, but the medium-range models are starting to trend closer to one another. The forecast will still depend on the track of Maria, which will depend on what happens with Jose. As a result, still have below average confidence in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday. Jose is still progged to meander off the NE U.S. coast through the weekend. Meanwhile, Maria will be moving through the Caribbean, northwestward toward the CONUS. As mentioned above, Maria`s impacts from Sunday onward are still highly uncertain as they will depend heavily on Jose and if/how the two systems interact with one another. For now, expect increasing cloud cover across eastern portions of Central NC Monday and Tuesday. Depending on if Jose comes back inland over VA and how close Maria gets to the NC coast will determine the strength of the winds and chances for convection Monday and Tuesday. Too much uncertainty still exists to speculate on either at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 735 AM Wednesday... VFR parameters are generally expected across central NC through Sunday with a few exceptions. Early this morning, pockets of MVFR visibility are probable through 13Z. After 18Z, a few showers and an isolated thunderstorm may develop as an upper disturbance approaches from the west. The threat for scattered convection will persist into the evening hours, primarily in vicinity of KFAY. In proximity of the heavier showers and storms, expect brief instances of MVFR ceilings and visibilities. On Thursday, there is a small threat for a shower or storm near or south of KFAY. Otherwise VFR parameters should persist at the TAF sites Thursday through the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...WSS

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