Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 302320 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 715 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak wave of low pressure and associated frontal zone will drift east across our region overnight, then push off to the east on Saturday. Weak high pressure will build over the region this weekend into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
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As of 715 PM Friday... There is a triple point surface wave over northern NC with a warm front along the NC/VA border, and a trough extending southward through the eastern Piedmont and Sandhills. Very dry air has moved into the western Piedmont from the Mountains with 40s/50s dew points and a SW wind. To the east of the low level trough, dew points remained in the 70s. Temperatures and instability levels have been knocked back by previous convection today along the boundary. Now with the onset of nightfall, the scattered strong to severe storms have weakened and diminished to only isolated showers. There still may be isolated new convective growth near the boundary and triple point, but it is expected to remain below severe limits. Storms are expected to move along in the mean flow at 30kt or so, keeping the flooding risk minimal. We will keep isolated storms potentially going as long as the boundaries remain near, otherwise mostly clear in the west and partly to mostly cloudy east. Lows 50s west/upper 60s east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday... Dry weather and mostly sunny skies are expected Sat as the mid level low slowly fills and lifts northward toward the southern MI border. The frontal zone over NC should continue to ease eastward and wash out over eastern NC. Forecast soundings are fairly dry and stable through the column with notable clouds confined to mostly scattered cumulus across the eastern CWA where low level moisture will be a bit better than in the west. Highs a few degrees above normal, 77- 83, with lows of 55-64. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 PM Friday... The upper level low responsible for all the rain across central NC over the last few days will retreat to the north, leaving us in the dry slot that is currently across the western half of the CWA as evidenced by the 50s and 60s dewpoints in the western part of the CWA. This will leave a dry and slightly above normal temperature forecast for the rest of the weekend and most of next week. High temperatures are expected to be near 80 degrees through the middle part of the week and dropping into the middle 70s by the end of the work week. Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower 60s for the week. Some slight chances for rain will creep into the southern and eastern counties late in the week as Hurricane Matthew moves along the Florida coast. With regard to Matthew there is a lot of uncertainty about the forward speed and long term track of the storm as it attempts to interact with an upper level trough over eastern Canada and New England. More information on Matthew can be found on the Weather Prediction Center and National Hurricane Center websites. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 210 PM Friday... MVFR cigs persist at RDU/RWI/FAY with a continued threat for scattered showers and isolated storms, while conditions have improved to VFR at INT/GSO as a slow moving cold front has shifted just east of these locations, with drier air moving in. The dominant MVFR conditions at RDU/RWI/FAY will improve to VFR from late afternoon through early to mid evening as dry air gradually works in from the WSW, with a corresponding end to the shower/storm chances. There is a small chance of MVFR or IFR vsbys in fog at RWI/RDU early Sat morning but chances appear too remote at this time to include in the terminal forecasts. VFR conditions are expected at all sites late tonight through Sat as high pressure builds in from the WSW. Surface winds from the SE at 6-12 kts will become light/variable for much of tonight before becoming southwesterly Sat behind the front. Looking beyond 18z Sat: VFR conditions are likely to dominate through Wed, although a period of sub-VFR fog/stratus is possible areawide early Wed morning. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS/Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...Hartfield

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