Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 250557 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 156 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 156 AM MONDAY... DOWNSTREAM OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MS AND OH VALLEYS....UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN WILL FURTHER/AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE AREA...KEEPING SEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AROUND FOR ONE LAST DAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THIS MEMORIAL DAY WITH A STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECTED 8 TO 11 METER RISE IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS A CATEGORY(~3 DEGREES)WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 80S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 156 AM MONDAY... WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY... THE MID/UPR RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG OR JUST E OF THE SE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE AT THE SFC AND IN THE BL...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE RIDGE TO OUR E AND THE TROUGH OVER THE OH/MISS VALLEY REGIONS BOTH GRADUALLY MOVING E. WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME TO OUR W GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFTING E... THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLD-TO-SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM W TO E DURING THIS TIME. ON TUESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA...AND ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER S/W TROUGH WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PLUME BY THEN WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND UP INTO VA. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/ EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND MAY HELP TO PUSH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS FARTHER INLAND. NEXT WEEKEND...LATEST GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO AND STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER...KEEPING THE RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL HOLD POPS CLOSE TO CLIMO. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 135 AM MONDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: UNDERNEATH AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...EXPECT DRY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OF SUB-VFR VISBYS AT FOG PRONE KRWI. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST....INCREASING AFTER DAYBREAK INTO THE 8 TO 12 KT RANGE... WITH A POSSIBLY A FEW RANDOM GUSTS INTO THE 16 TO 20 KT RANGE. LOOKING AHEAD: A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW A RETURN IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY...BRINGING INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS TUESDAY-THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...CBL

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