Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 010708 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 308 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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The remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Bonnie will continue to drift slowly northeast just off the Carolina coast through Thursday. A cold front will approach the region from the west late in the work week and then stall over our region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /through Thursday night/...
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As of 310 AM Wednesday... Today and tonight: The remnants of Bonnie will continue to ever so slowly work northeastward up the North Carolina coast on Wednesday providing another round of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms for the eastern half of the CWA. Current radar shows a great depiction of the center of the low which is now centered almost due south of Cape Fear. The most active rainbands continue to be on the northeast side of the storm and confined to the coast at this time. High resolutions models show these rainbands becoming more prevalent with the heating of the day and moving into our forecast area by late morning and into the early afternoon. Looking back to the west, a frontal system will start to move in from the west and a few showers out ahead of this system may make it into the NW Piedmont by late afternoon. Therefore carrying chance pops everywhere by late afternoon with best chances still across the east. Highs generally in the mid 80s with coolest temps across the northeast where clouds should be most prevalent. Convection should follow a diurnal pattern and begin to subside by evening. Lows still in the mid to upper 60s. Thursday and Thursday night: The remnants of Bonnie will move off of the northeast NC coast. Any showers associated with the remnants of the system should largely be confined to areas east of I-95. In general, Thursday could be a relative lull in the precipitation chances as our sits in a zone between the leftovers of Bonnie and the frontal system to the west which will be over the Appalachians for much of the day on Thursday. Therefore expect the biggest threat for showers and thunderstorms to show up later in the day in the NW Piedmont. There will be decent instability Thursday afternoon but very little to speak of in terms of shear so any severe threat remains fairly low. As far as QPF is concerned, rainfall totals for the entire period are only expected to be a quarter to a half of an inch with higher amounts in stronger showers and storms. Since there is yet to be any kind of change in airmass, expect highs once again in the mid 80s with lows in the upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /Thursday through Friday night/... As of 255 PM Tuesday... Remnants of post-tropical storm Bonnie will linger under short wave ridging aloft and remain nearly stationary along the central NC coast on Thursday. The ridging is tamped down Thursday night and Friday due to eastward progression of a strong short wave across the Great Lakes. This will modestly increase westerly flow and nudge the remnant low offshore Thursday night and Friday. We will see a lull in the threat of convection over most of the area on Thursday as the remnant low wraps more stable in from the north. Moisture will begin to edge into the west by late day, however, in increasingly westerly flow which will be fed moisture off the western gulf by a closed low over Texas. Will maintain ongoing small chances for convection in the east Thursday as precipitable water will remain above 1.5 inches with mid level lapse rates exceeding 6K/km to enhance instability. Highs will benefit from periods of sun to reach the mid 80s, with perhaps some upper 80s in the southeast. Precip chances will diurnally fall off Thursday night concurrent with the low moving offshore, and mins will be seasonable, in the upper 60s. More unsettled weather with increasing convective coverage will return quickly on Friday as a cold front very slowly sags south out of the Ohio Valley to provide a convergence zone to enhance lift in the moisture rich environment. Highs are potentially in the upper 80s across the area, but heavier cloud coverage in westerly flow would temper that down a bit to mid 80s north and upper 80s across the southern tier. The frontal zone will be in the vicinity Friday night, perhaps even lying across the area per latest GFS, keeping chance of ongoing showers overnight with persistence mins near 70. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 255 PM Tuesday... Upcoming weekend still looks wet but confidence is not high as there are a number of details that will determine the coverage and intensity of convection. The cold front sagging south aligns parallel to the upper flow and stalls in the vicinity of the area and makes a jog back to the north as a stronger short wave rotates across the Ohio Valley. Will have a strong warm and moist advection on Sunday as this wave pushes a much stronger cold front across the area Sunday night. As such, will modestly nudge the PoPs up both Saturday but particularly Sunday due to the relative consensus of model solutions. Highs will be persistence in the unchanged airmass, with mid to upper 80s, with the potential for some very low 90s in the south given an extra hour or two of sunshine. Dryness returns Monday and Tuesday as the upper system pushes offshore with somewhat cooler and dry ridging building in through mid week. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be pleasant, in the low 80s after morning lows in the mid 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 120 AM Wednesday... 24 hour TAF period: Precipitation has largely subsided over the CWA with some clouds remaining, mainly over eastern portions of the area as the NW Piedmont has largely cleared out at this time. Dewpoint depressions are still fairly high though and some cloud cover should move over the area from the southwest, helping to inhibit any fog that may try to form in that area. Back to the east, SREF probabilities suggest low stratus working into the area between 6-9z for the entire eastern half of the forecast area. Expect to see some IFR ceilings near 500 feet or so somewhere in the 9-12z. Visibilities may also come down to MVFR levels but the main driver of aviation conditions will be the ceilings. Ceilings should start to lift after 12 at least back to MVFR levels and continue to rise through late morning. High-resolution models show widely scattered showers for much of the area later today with the highest concentration across the east. Thunderstorms may become more likely during the afternoon hours. Long term: A very wet pattern will continue with a frontal system approaching from the west for the end of the week. The front is expected to stall out over the region and provide several chances for sub-VFR conditions through the weekend and into next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...MLM LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION... Ellis

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