Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 250113 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 910 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 910 PM SUNDAY... STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. STRONG SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NC. BASED ON SATELLITE AND FORECAST MODELS... CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD COME UP A BIT MORE DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE DEW POINTS. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 55-60 RANGE OVER THE RURAL PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN... WITH LOWER 60S IN URBAN AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY... THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL PERSIST MON/MON NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS 12Z MON...SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY 12Z TUE. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW /AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION/ WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A DRY/STABLE/ SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NC. EXPECT DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WARMEST IN THE SANDHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY... THE MID/UPR RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG OR JUST E OF THE SE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE AT THE SFC AND IN THE BL...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE RIDGE TO OUR E AND THE TROUGH OVER THE OH/MISS VALLEY REGIONS BOTH GRADUALLY MOVING E. WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME TO OUR W GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFTING E... THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLD-TO-SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM W TO E DURING THIS TIME. ON TUESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA...AND ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER S/W TROUGH WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PLUME BY THEN WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND UP INTO VA. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/ EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND MAY HELP TO PUSH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS FARTHER INLAND. NEXT WEEKEND...LATEST GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO AND STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER...KEEPING THE RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL HOLD POPS CLOSE TO CLIMO. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 840 PM SUNDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VISBYS AT FOG PRONE KRWI. OTHERWISE... EXPECT A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TONIGHT INCREASING AFTER DAYBREAK INTO THE 8 TO 12 KT RANGE... WITH A POSSIBLY A FEW RANDOM GUSTS INTO THE 16 TO 20 KT RANGE. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT... WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY... WITH CLOUD BASES AT AROUND 5 TO 7 KFT. LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) AND ISOLD/SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE-THU AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...RAH

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