Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 011856 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 256 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY... EARLIER SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA...TAKING THE BEST FORCING WITH IT AND IN ITS WAKE LEAVING RAIN COOLED TEMPERATURES AND A LOT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THIS ADDS UP TO A DIMINISHING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THERE IS MORE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...BUT LITTLE OR NO SHEAR LEFT TO WORK WITH. BEST RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AREA BUT GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. FORECASTED HIGHS TODAY FOR THE MOST PART WILL NOT BE ACHIEVED AND WILL PROBABLY TOP OUT NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE NW AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH. KGSO WILL THREATEN THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMP WHICH IS 72 DEGREES SET IN 2010. CEILINGS WILL BE THE WORST THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHEAST. ANY BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGH TEMPS...EXPECT MID 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY... THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS CAMPED TO OUR WEST WITH AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL HELP FOCUS PRECIPITATION EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 ON SATURDAY WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN THE TRIAD ALTHOUGH ALL AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE RAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL HIGHLY VARIABLE ON HOW MUCH QPF EXACTLY WILL FALL WITH ANYTHING FROM 0 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. WILL GO WITH A FORECAST OF A WIDESPREAD QUART TO A HALF OF AN INCH IN THE WEST AND RANGING UPWARDS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE EAST WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE GOOD INSTABILITY IN THE EAST...THE SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS IT WAS TODAY AND NOT MANY STRONG SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW TO PROVIDE ANY SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE THERE SHOULD BE GOOD COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST...BUT NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER. VERY SHORT STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS PRETTY MUCH RULE OUT ANY ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CEILINGS AGAIN LIKELY. LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY... LITTLE CHANGE IS SHOWN IN THE PATTERN ON SUNDAY WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STILL CENTERED OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW ARE PROGGED TO MOVE NE AND ACROSS THE CENTER AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH EACH WAVE. GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT HIGH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...THE MAIN IMPACT CONCERN DURING THIS TIME WILL BE THE ONGOING CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. NOTED THAT THE PWAT DOES DECREASE WESTWARD...THUS THE HIGHEST RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SUBSEQUENT FLOODING APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH ITS PASSAGE AND THE PASSAGE OF THE ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THIS TIME...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF DECREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...SINCE THE SFC BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT MAY STALL ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPS DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT DAYTIME TEMPS MAY BE SOMEWHAT COOLER DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY... A REAL MIX OF EVER CHANGING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT IT IS MOSTLY MVFR IN THE NW...VFR ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES AND IFR IN THE SOUTHEAST. RADAR AND SATELLITE PRESENTATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS MAY CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL SITES WILL BEGIN TO GO SUB VFR AND PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE SE. THE UP AND DOWN NATURE OF THE CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ALL SITES SEE SOME IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS ARE MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS BUT THERE ARE SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP. PATCHY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND A STORM OR TWO SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE CONVECTION RAMPS UP ONCE AGAIN IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY. FOR THE LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WITH IT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MORE OFTEN THAN NOT. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ028-043-078-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ELLIS NEAR TERM...ELLIS SHORT TERM...ELLIS LONG TERM...NP AVIATION...ELLIS

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