Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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399 FXUS62 KRAH 081745 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1245 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An arctic cold front will move through the area today. An expansive arctic high will dominate Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM Thursday... A few returns on radar this morning are associated with mainly mid clouds and at best just a few drops of rain are possible across the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain. The previously stalled front over western NC is now moving east through central NC as an expansive arctic high build east in its wake, with northwest winds now observed to I-95. 850mb and 925mb analysis show cold advection underway, though it`s not terribly strong yet. The best 700mb moisture will push east of the area this morning, but south- southwest flow aloft will keep some high clouds over the area, so the combination of clouds and cold advection will hinder warming some, especially across the northwest half of the area. A blend of NAM and GFS temp guidance looks reasonable, with only 3-6 rises in most locations, resulting in highs of 49-57. Strong CAA will continue overnight as expansive Arctic high begins east into the region. Overnight lows in the mid 20s to upper 20s with a steady wind 7kt breeze resulting in chill values in the teens. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 AM Thursday... The expansive arctic high pressure will dominate the eastern two- thirds of the country Friday and right on through the weekend. H8 temps crash to -10 Celsius Friday-Friday night, which is easily 2 to 3 standard deviations below normal, while low-level thicknesses bottoming out around 1275 meters. This will support temps a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows in upper teens to lower 20s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 245 AM Thursday... Expect highs on Saturday to be similar to Friday, albeit a few degrees warmer, as arctic high pressure centered over the region begins to modify. The latest 00Z GFS/ECMWF guidance remains as divided as previous runs with regard to the timing/evolution of the next shortwave/surface low/cold front anticipated to approach the Carolinas from from the west early next week. Since long range guidance has failed to converge on a similar solution thus far for Sunday/Monday, forecast confidence remains well below normal. As such, little change will be made to the long term forecast (Sun-Wed) at this time. -Vincent && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1245 PM THURSDAY... Winds are turning to northwest in the wake of a cold front crossing central NC today, with gusts to around 20kt likely to spread west to east as cold advection strengthens. Skies will clear through the evening hours as high clouds slowly shift east, and VFR conditions will continue. Some of the gusts could continue overnight, but for the most part guidance suggests winds will weaken to 6-10kt out of the northwest and then increase to 10-15kt gusting 15-20kt on Friday. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through the weekend. There is a small chance of sub-VFR ceilings on Sunday, with better chances Monday and Thursday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...CBL/Smith SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...Smith

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