Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 141459 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 955 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 955 AM SUNDAY... VERY FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THE FORECAST THIS MORNING... MAINLY A TWEAKING OF TODAY`S HIGHS AND A SLIGHT SLOWING OF THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER BASED ON MORNING TRENDS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS HIGHS TODAY FROM 29-36... COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST BENEATH THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER FAR ERN VA... DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. MID CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... WITH MOST PLACES MOSTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING STORM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK... AND WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME RETURNS ON RADAR AS SOON AS LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING... THESE HYDROMETEORS WILL INITIALLY BE FIGHTING DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND THUS THE FORECASTED ONSET OF MEASURABLE PRECIP STILL LOOKS GOOD. WE WILL BE CONSIDERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THIS AFTERNOON... AND PERHAPS A WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE FAR NW... AFTER A THOROUGH ASSESSMENT OF MORNING MODEL RUNS. -GIH HERE IS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 4 AM... TODAY: MODIFIED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING... WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERING INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL... GENERALLY IN THE 1250S AND 1260S. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COLD DAY ACROSS THE AREA... WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 30 N/NE TO NEAR 35 S/SW. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT... WHILE LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE OVER TOP THE LINGERING COLD DOME LEADING TO THE DEVELOP OF SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FIRST DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT INITIAL VERY LATE THIS EVENING/AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT (GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW TO START)... THEN FILLING IN FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INSITU CAD WEDGE. WHILE THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS DEPOSITED BY THE MODIFIED ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO ALL PRECIP EARLY MONDAY MORNING FALLING IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX... WITH MORE SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.... TO MORE OF A SLEET FREEZING RAIN MIX ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE TRANSITORY (CONTINUING TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY AND OFFSHORE) COUPLED WITH A SURGING WARM NOSE EXPECT WE WILL SEE PRECIP GO FROM A WINTRY MIX TO FREEZING RAIN... THEN ALL RAIN IN A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FASHION ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE ALL RAIN/DRIZZLE BY AROUND NOON MONDAY... WITH THE TRIANGLE AREA TURNING TO ALL RAIN/DRIZZLE BY MID AFTERNOON OR SO...WHILE THE TRIAD MAY HOLD ONTO SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE INTO THE EVENING... BEFORE BECOMING ALL RAIN BY LATE EVENING. MOST OF THE PRECIP BY MIDDAY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT... AS THE 850MB WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAVE CENTRAL NC WILL SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE. WRT TO ACCUMULATIONS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT/NORTHERN PIEDMONT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS... POSSIBLY 2 TO 3 INCHES... WITH LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST SEEING LESS FOR A NUMBER OF REASONS (A LITTLE LESS QPF/LESS TIME WITH HIGHER SNOW/SLEET TO LIQUID RATIOS DUE TO THE WARM NOES/AND POSSIBLE LOSS OF SATURATION ABOVE -10C ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST). THUS... OUTSIDE OF THE NW/N PIEDMONT WE WILL GENERALLY SEE SNOW/SLEET TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. WITH REGARD TO ICE ACCRUAL... THINK WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST TRACE AMOUNTS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC... THUS... AT LEAST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN LATER SHIFTS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ICE ACCRUAL IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS... WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. HOWEVER... AS MENTIONED ABOVE AT LEAST A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE NEED FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA... WITH PERHAPS A WINTER STORM WARNING NEEDED FOR A THE FAR N/NW PIEDMONT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S SE. THE MAIN S/W ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS. TEMPS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AS THE COASTAL FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR STEADY TO RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT... WITH LOWS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LIKELY OCCURRING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS AT AROUND 12Z ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE 50S SE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY... SFC COLD FRONT ATTENDANT WITH THE S/W CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WEST-TO-EAST THROUGH 17Z. WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO AID TO DISSIPATE CLOUD COVERAGE AND LEAD TO A FAIRLY MILD AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE. ANOTHER S/W WILL CROSS IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BASICALLY BE MOISTURE STARVED THOUGH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE VA BORDER. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY... AMPLIFIED L/W TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF FEBRUARY WILL RELAX...LEADING TO S/W RIDGING ALOFT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEEP ZONAL FLOW...INITIATING A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WED-FRI. THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE NW LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BACK THE FLOW TO A MORE SW DIRECTION...PUMPING WARM AIR RESIDING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC. AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE INTO THE WEEK WHEN AN UPTICK IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND A SW FLOW YIELDS MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS WEAK. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY... AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. THUS...SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY...AND THICKEN/LOWER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BETWEEN 03Z-08Z...EXPANDING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE IT WILL MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NC AFTER 08Z. A MIX BAG OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW/SLEET AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW HALF...AND FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS THE SE HALF. THE SNOW WILL BECOME FREEZING RAIN THEN RAIN ACROSS THE NW HALF MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS COVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN SHOWERS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR FEB 14TH. REC YR REC YR LOW LOW MAX ---------------------------------------------- GSO: 02/14 6 1905 22 1914 RDU: 02/14 -2 1899 27 1916 FAY: 02/14 12 1968 33 1916 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ007-021>023-038-039. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ008>010-024>026-040-041-073>076. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BSD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION...WSS CLIMATE...RAH

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