Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 011805 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 205 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BENEATH PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1035 AM WEDNESDAY... LITTLE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED TO NEAR TERM FORECAST. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA AT 12Z PER UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NEWD THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT. WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AS EVIDENT BY 12Z GSO SOUNDING SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY CAPPED...INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AFTER 21Z-22Z...ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE MAY THREATEN THE FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHILE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION MAY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY. STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S STILL APPEAR ON TARGET. AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR AXIS PROJECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST-NW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR REGION AND SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. HAVE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU BASED ON LATEST TREND OF RAPID REFRESH MODEL AND 06Z NAM/GFS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 257 AM WEDNESDAY... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINES WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE LATE IN THE DAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED. INCREASING FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAVORS CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THAN IS TYPICALLY EXPECTED DURING THE SUMMER. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO DIE OFF OVERNIGHT OR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST. LOWS 68-72. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 205 PM WEDNESDAY... PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN FEATURING A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA ATOP A PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL BE ALIGNED WEST-EAST IN THE VICINITY OF NC THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE WILL BE SKIRTING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN OUR ONGOING LIKELY POPS AREA-WIDE...GRADUATED HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES CONCERNING THE TIMING OF LATER DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH THE TREND WILL STILL TEND TO FAVOR A DIURNAL PATTERN OF INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH DURING MAX HEATING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH...SUBJECT TO DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER COVERAGE. MORNING LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY... THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL NC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE ISOLATED. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NC LATE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CAUSE AREAS OF STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE ABOVE SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...WSS

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