Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 270205 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 905 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 905 PM MONDAY... COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AS EVIDENT OF BLUSTERY NW SFC WINDS IN THE TRIAD AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE RALEIGH DURHAM AREA THROUGH 10 PM...AND ROCKY MOUNT/WILSON...AND FAYETTEVILLE AROUND MIDNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDING TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE RDU AREA SOUTHWARD TO FORT BRAGG. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO GLIDE SEWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG JET (NEAR 150KTS) DIGGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO DEEP SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL PULL COLDER AIR FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ROTATING SOUTHWARD FROM VA INTO NE NC WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NE PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT DUSTING ON THE TOP OF CARS OR WOODEN DECKS...BUT THE EXPECTED LIGHT PRECIP INTENSITY AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND SUGGEST NO ACCUMULATION ON THE GROUND OR ROAD SURFACES. BLUSTERY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ADVECT A DRIER COLDER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS WIND SHOULD EVAPORATE THE BULK OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFTOVER FROM RECENT RAINFALL. THUS AS TEMPS DROP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE SCENARIO THOUGH COULD SEE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINWATER NORMALLY COLLECTS AND IS SHELTERED FROM THE WIND. -WSS THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW FLURRY OR SHOWER MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF RDU THROUGH LATE MORNING... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER... THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF THE REGION AS IT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL OUT TO THE NE. THE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY NE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW AND WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WILL PRODUCE A CHILLY WIND CHILL IN THE 20S AND 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 20S. -BADGETT && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 145 PM MONDAY... WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE /SFC HIGH/ BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS (WED) AND CAROLINAS (WED NIGHT). EXPECT HIGHS 40-45F...COOLEST NE COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S WED NIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLY BY SUNRISE...ESP N/NW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IF UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVE EARLY AND/OR THICK ENOUGH...LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE THE CASE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 145 PM MONDAY... THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR IN ORDER FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESP WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S GIVEN THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE BRIEF/WEAK AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 33-38F RANGE...COOLEST NW AND WARMEST SE. FRI-SAT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST FRI/SAT...IN ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY... AND IN ASSOC/W NEUTRAL ADVECTION...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD...AND A COLD ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ON SAT. SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 655 PM MONDAY... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST... WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WHILE THIS TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA...MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (MAYBE EVEN A FLURRY) WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE IN. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY ON TUESDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THE EVENING HOURS. OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY... ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...WSS/BADGETT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...KRD

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