Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 291814 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 215 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Tropical cyclone Bonnie will track inland along the South Carolina coast today, then turn northeast and track along the North Carolina coast through early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/... As of 1215 PM Sunday... Quick update to the forecast discussion for this morning. As of 1130 am EDT...tropical cyclone Bonnie has tracked inland over southern SC. Shower activity has increased over central NC this morning, with the heaviest activity focused invof an inverted trough/coastal front south and southeast of the Triangle where PWAT values are AOA 2.00" and weak diurnal destabilization has occurred. The primary forecast concern this afternoon will be a potential for isolated flash flooding in areas repeatedly affected by heavy showers, and a low- end potential for an isolated/brief tornado in the far southeast coastal plain (Cumberland/Sampson/Wayne counties) where the latest SPC mesoanalysis indicated a supercell composite parameter of 1-2 and mlcape of ~500 J/kg. With a mean storm motion from the SE (from ~160 degrees), rotating updrafts exhibiting deviant motion will tend to propagate to the N/NNE (from ~190 degrees). A rotating updraft exhibiting deviant motion toward the N/NNE and echo tops approaching 40 KFT has already been observed in Lenoir county late this morning, lending strong support to the notion that a low-end risk for a brief/isolated tornado is present in southeast NC this aft. -Vincent && .SHORT TERM /Monday through Monday night/...
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As of 215 PM Sunday... The remnants of TD Bonnie are expected to track very slowly ENE from northeastern SC into southeastern NC Monday and Monday night. Additional locally heavy rain is expected over portions of central NC with the main focus likely along or near the track of the low. This would place the SE Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain in the heaviest QPF of 1 to 1.5 inches with locally higher totals. POP and QPF will be lower back in the NW Piedmont where some drier low level air will advect off the higher terrain into the far western Piedmont lowering the PW`s and lift there. Skies should range from Cloudy down east to variably cloudy in the western Piedmont. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the eastern third of the region with much more scattered showers to the west. Highs Monday will again be held down by the clouds and rain, especially in the east where readings will be in the 70s to near 80. Highs in the western Piedmont should be around 80. Lows generally in the 65-70 range.
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&& .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
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As of 205 PM Sunday... The remnants of TD Bonnie are still expected to be a factor into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday for eastern sections of NC. We will follow the latest NHC forecasts which indicates a very slow moving depression finally beginning to get steered a bit quicker NE along the coast Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Models are in good agreement in depicting the highest POP near the coast along a low level boundary and very near the track of the low. This appears very reasonable although there will be a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms inland with the QPF much lower than along the track of the low. QPF of 0.25 to 0.50 with locally higher totals can be expected over the far eastern Coastal Plain with QPF of 0.25 or less inland over much of central NC. Day time temperatures will be held in check but the humidity levels will remain high. Expect highs to reach back into the 80-85 range Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the mid to upper 60s. Later in the week, expect the influence of the TD to give way as the remnant low is bumped east as mid level troughing moves out of the Rockies and heads eastward. This system should approach the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic region next weekend and is expected to bring significant convective rains at times by the end of the week into the weekend. A slow moving cold front is expected to stall over the SE states by the weekend focusing heavy QPF. Lows will be well above normal 65-70 and highs in the 80s cooling into the 75-82 range by Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z Sunday through Thursday/... As of 615 AM Sunday... FAY has already dropped to IFR in rain, and elsewhere, the current VFR conditions will slowly deteriorate to MVFR or IFR later this morning, although some brief improvement back to VFR may occur this afternoon. The center of Tropical Storm Bonnie, currently located off the SE coast east of SAV (see www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest), is expected to push slowly to the NW before stalling out near the central SC coast through much of today. A surge of Atlantic moisture to the NE of Bonnie will bring a band of showers toward the NNW through central NC this morning into early afternoon, followed by patchier and more widely scattered showers and perhaps a storm or two during the mid to late afternoon, with the best chance of storms at RDU/FAY/RWI. Within this first band of steady showers, cigs and vsbys should drop to MVFR with cigs potentially IFR at times. Once this main band shifts northward by early afternoon, conditions should vary between MVFR and VFR through early evening. MVFR to IFR fog and stratus are apt to redevelop after sunset, especially at INT/GSO/RDU, with scattered showers persisting areawide. Looking beyond 12z Mon: Unsettled weather will linger with periods of sub-VFR conditions expected through Mon, including a good chance of showers and storms Mon afternoon, especially at RDU/RWI/FAY. IFR fog/stratus is likely to redevelop for Mon night / Tue morning. Numerous sub-VFR showers and storms expected Tue afternoon at RDU/RWI/FAY, with less coverage and mostly VFR conditions at INT/GSO. Chances for sub-VFR showers diminish by Wed/Thu as the TS Bonnie circulation and associated upper level disturbance finally shifts NE away from the forecast area. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Vincent NEAR TERM...Vincent SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...Hartfield

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