Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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228 FXUS62 KRAH 271842 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 242 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .Synopsis... Strong high pressure aloft will extend across the region through Thursday, bringing continued hot and humid conditions to central NC. The chance for afternoon storms will increase toward the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
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As of 1112 AM Wednesday... Today: Persistent mid/upper level anticyclone located just to the south/southeast of central NC will continue to provide the region with hot and humid conditions with another day of afternoon temps in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values in the 103-109 degree range (highest east and south again). Given the consecutive days of heat index values of around 100/low 100s across the northwest piedmont and warm overnight lows have decided to expand the heat advisory to encompass the entire area. Strong surface heating within the high PW air mass in place will support isolated to scattered convection this afternoon, though the remnant outflow boundary from last night`s convection could lead to convective initiation. Proximity to the modest 30kt mid-level flow over the Mid-Atlantic states, on the northern periphery the upper anticyclone, could support a few severe clusters, especially across the northern half of the forecast area. The primary threat again will be locally damaging wind gusts. Given PW`s around 2 inches+ heavy rain will be possible, with a threat of localized flooding if any clusters slowly track across an urban area. Tonight: Most convection will generally die off by late evening with another warm night expected. Expect lows temps tonight to generally be in the mid to upper 70s. Can`t completely rule out additional weak disturbance tracking across northern portions of the area overnight, possibly sparking a shower or storm, though think any activity will be quite isolated as we should still be under the general influence from the nearby mid/upper level ridge.
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&& .SHORT TERM /Thursday and Thursday night/...
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As of 325 AM Wednesday... Thursday: The persistent mid/upper level ridge will again provide central NC with another hot and humid day for Thursday, with a the main threat of storms across the northern half of the area again. Additional strong to severe storms will be possible in the late afternoon/evening, with the main threat again from locally damaging wind gusts along with a localized flooding threat (mainly urban areas) and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Expect high temps will gain be in the mid to upper 90s, with similar heat index values and likely another heat advisory. Model guidance in good agreement in their depiction of a s/w lifting newd from the TN valley Thursday night, and into the Mid Atlantic Friday. This feature will aid to enhance low level confluence along a surface trough across the NC Piedmont, and lead to a decent chance for scattered convection, especially during max heating Friday afternoon. May see a few showers/t-storms late Thu night in vicinity of the NW Piedmont.
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&& .LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
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As of 235 PM Wednesday... A shortwave moving across the Mid Atlantic on Friday will act to suppress the upper ridge that has been the cause of our extreme further to the south and east of NC. This will be the beginning of a pattern change for the region, with troughing eventually dominating the east coast by early next week. Therefore, for late in the week and into the weekend, deep southwesterly flow will set up over the area as the mean trough axis stays to the west. Thus, convective development will largely hinge on disturbances moving through in the flow aloft. These disturbances are difficult to time this far out, therefore will show mostly a diurnal trend on near normal convective chances. Then, we should see precip chances increasing some more into early next week as the aforementioned trough begins to progress east towards our region. The extreme heat should finally let up as the upper ridge is suppressed and clouds/precip chances will be on the rise. Thus, am expecting max temps to trend from the low/mid 90s on Friday and Saturday to the upper 80s/lower 90s early next week.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 PM Wednesday... Isolated to scattered convection could impact any of the terminals this afternoon and evening. A brief period of Sub-VFR conditions will be possible with the stronger storms, along with gusty winds. Convection should begin to wane aoa 03z, with generally dry conditions overnight. Patchy sub-VFR fog and/or stratus will be possible again on Thursday morning, especially near locations that receive heavy rain. Outlook: Outside of isolated to scattered storms each afternoon/evening and some patchy early morning fog, expect predominately VFR conditions through Friday. Rain chances are expected to increase by the weekend and into early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ007>011-021>028- 038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...CBL/BSD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...CBL

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