Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 261426 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1025 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front will cross the area on Tuesday, followed by high pressure that will persist over the region through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1025 AM EDT Monday... Little adjustment required to the near term forecast. Deep west-sw flow will continue to maintain a dry air mass over central NC this afternoon, resulting in mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures. A near sfc north-northwest flow has advected a less humid air mass into our region with sfc dewpoints at late morning in the 50s. These pleasant dewpoints will drop a few more degrees this afternoon as drier air aloft is mixed towards the surface. Afternoon high temps solidly in the mid 80s. Tonight, the approach of a minor upper disturbance will yield patchy mid-high level cloudiness, primarily after midnight, and mainly west of highway 1. The presence of the dry sub cloud layer will prohibit any rain from reaching the surface. Min temps mainly 60-65 degrees with a few upper 50s in the northern Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM EDT Monday... Our coolest airmass will be in place Tuesday and Tuesday night as the upper trof axis moves across the area, perhaps accompanied by a few showers...in the mid morning to early afternoon west...and in the afternoon to evening in the east. Highs will top out in the upper 70s north to lower 80s south. With clouds departing early tomorrow night, mins will radiate down into the mid and upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 AM Monday... The flow aloft will become increasingly zonal through the middle of the week, as a trough initially centered over the Great Lakes lifts out and a sub-tropical ridge builds over the wrn N. Atlantic. Weakly perturbed swly flow aloft, on the wrn periphery of the sub-tropical ridge, will then develop from the MS Valley to the middle Atlantic region Fri through the weekend, as an upstream trough settles across the central U.S. At the surface, Canadian high pressure will crest over the srn middle Atlantic states (NC/VA) Wed, then drift offshore and into the central N. Atlantic, where it will remain throughout the forecast period. Return flow around the high will yield gradually increasing temperatures and humidity levels, both of which will likely peak Sun- Mon. Deep dryness, characterized by precipitable water values initially between one half and three quarters of an inch on Wed, will ensure dry conditions until at least Fri, after which time the aforementioned increasing warming and moistening low levels, amidst a sharpening Appalachian-lee trough, should prove sufficient for at least scattered convection during the upcoming holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /14Z Monday through Friday/... As of 1025 AM Monday... Weak high pressure to our west and a lee side trough over the Piedmont will maintain VFR conditions across central NC through tonight. Sfc winds this afternoon will mainly be north-northeast at less than 8kts. Outlook for the remainder of the week, high pressure will produce VFR conditions through Friday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...mlm LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...WSS

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