Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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437 FXUS62 KRAH 230052 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 750 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure will build over the area tonight through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 750 PM Wednesday... latest surface analysis shows surface high pressure across the Ohip and Missouri valleys building east into the Mid-Atlantic. Mainly clear skies with a few patches of cirrus are moving across the Carolinas this evening. Current forecast is in good shape. Only minor adjustments to account for near-term trends were needed. -Blaes Previous discussion as of 223 PM... High pressure and a drier and cooler airmass will build into the area tonight, as demonstrated by forecast soundings which show pwat dropping from about 1/2 inch now to less than a 1/4 inch by this evening. Low level thicknesses are also progged to fall about 50m from now through tonight. N/NW winds gusting into the upper teens now will gradually diminish later after sunset, but with the high center remaining to our north, we`ll see some light NE wind linger overnight. Meanwhile, another short wave trough in the GOM will begin moving toward the E and NE, so expect high clouds out ahead of this feature to increase across the SE states and up into our area (mainly our southern and eastern zones) tonight. The combination of high clouds and lingering wind should keep temps from falling lower than they otherwise would. Lows in the lower to mid 30s under partly cloudy skies. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 223 PM Wednesday... High pressure will settle over NC and provide another nice weather day, although about 10 degrees cooler than today, thanks to the airmass that`s currently being ushered into the area. We`ve been keeping track of the short wave trough and sfc wave in the GOM, but it now looks like that system will remain well to our south and east, as the sfc wave moves up along the old cold front that moved through our area earlier today. The only impact that this system will have on our weather will be increased cirrus, particularly across the eastern half of the state. Overall, looks like fair low- impact weather for Thanksgiving Day and night. Highs in the upr 40s north to lower-mid 50s elsewhere, and lows within a few degrees either side of the freezing mark. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM Wednesday... A milder airmass will return Friday and Saturday as high pressure moves offshore. A coastal frontal zone and embedded waves of low pressure will pass close enough to threaten perhaps the far southern and eastern Coastal Plain with a slight chance of rain Friday into Friday night. Otherwise, a rather dry cold front will sweep across the area Saturday night, only to usher additional surface ridging over the Carolinas for next week. Temperatures will be in the 60s ahead of the dry cold front by Sat, back to the 50s Sunday and Monday, then modify back into the 60s for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 600 PM Wednesday... VFR conditions are expected, with high confidence through 00Z/FRI. The light N wind tonight will become light and variable Friday as high pressure builds overhead. Outlook... Expect predominately VFR conditions through Monday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Blaes/np SHORT LONG TERM...MWS/Franklin AVIATION...Badgett is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.