Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 241949 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 245 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... PASSING SOUTH OF NORTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY... THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST TOWARD THE COAST AT MID AFTERNOON. RAPID CLEARING CONTINUED TO SPREAD OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT TOWARD THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS NVA IN THE REAR OF THE DEPARTING VORT MAX WERE COMBINING WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BRING THE RAPID CLEARING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY CLEARING SKIES AND A BRISK WEST BREEZE AT 10-20 MPH THAT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT... AS HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO OUR SOUTH LATE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT WEST WIND OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY... SUNDAY... AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION. A RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... COOLEST IN THE NW WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EARLIER. SUNDAY NIGHT... THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIVING SOUTHEAST IN THE "ALBERTA CLIPPER" FASHION. USING THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH GIVEN SOME 50-100 MILE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE... A TRACK NEARLY BISECTING NORTH CAROLINA FROM NW TO SE WOULD BE AN AVERAGE RESULT. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN IS A GOOD REPRESENTATIVE TO START WITH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A SURFACE WAVE TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS MONDAY. FOR A WINTER P-TYPE THREAT... THE TYPICAL "CLIPPER LOW" TRACK WOULD MOST LIKELY HAVE TO TRACK 50-100 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE... SUNDAY NIGHT... ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS OVER OUR REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WE WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH ALSO MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST MOS GUIDANCE WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR EVENTS. EXPECT TO SEE THICKENING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING (IN THE 37-42 RANGE NW TO SE). WE WILL CARRY LOW END "CHANCE" POP IN THE NORTH FOR NOW WHICH IS 25-30 PERCENT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN (0.01). ANYTHING THAT FALLS THROUGH 12Z/MON WOULD BE RAIN AND WOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE NW ZONES. MONDAY... THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE CLIPPER SYSTEM PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS... AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL NOT SHOW MUCH INCLINATION TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT PRECIP...BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID 40S DUE TO THE MILD...MID 30S...START TO THE DAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH MAY REACH THE MID 50S WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PULLED OUT...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL SNOW SHOWERS MIXING WITH THE DEPARTING RAIN AS LEVELS ABOVE -12 DRY OUT. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND FREEZING SOUTH. CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WITH LAGGING MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FAST UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY... A SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. COLD AIR WILL BE SETTLED IN ALONG WITH WHAT COULD BE A NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH SOME MID 40S SOUTH. THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FAILING TO WARM UP THE COLD AIRMASS...HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MIGRATING OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY... WITH A MILD WARMUP ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK IN RETURN FLOW. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50...WHILE SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE MILDER MINS...MAINLY MID 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 50...BUT COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1215 PM SATURDAY... RAPID IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z ACROSS OUR REGION. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES... RAPID CLEARING WILL ENSUE. THIS PROCESS HAD ALREADY BEGUN AT KHKY... KCLT AND KGSP BY 17Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20KT. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LONG TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PRESENT A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN NC. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...BADGETT/MLM LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...BADGETT

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