Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 201135 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 635 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will remain over the region early this morning. A warm front will lift north over the region today. A backdoor cold front will move southward into the area Thursday evening into Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Tuesday... ...Dense Fog Advisory in place for all of central North Carolina through 12 PM today... Dense fog ongoing in many locations across the area. Short term guidance is showing fog remaining in place through much of the morning in most locations. When it does erode, it will begin to do so from the southeast and then quickly improve to at least MVFR levels. With Bermuda high aloft and subtropical upper level ridge in place over the western Atlantic, southerly return flow will transport warm, moist air into the region and temperatures are expected to climb to well above normal this afternoon. How high max temps go will largely be dependent upon how long the fog remains in place. If longer than expected, there will be less time for insolation and thus cooler temperatures. Will go with upper 60s in the immediate Triad with upper 70s in the far southeast which is on pace or slightly undercutting latest MOS guidance. A few light showers are possible this afternoon but will be isolated and short lived at best. Ceilings are expected to begin to go back down to IFR levels and below after 00z with visibilities dropping as well but low stratus will be the bigger concern overnight. Low temperatures very mild, near 60 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Tuesday... High pressure remains anchored in place just off the coast on Wednesday and this should keep much of the forecast area dry for most of the day. To the west, a frontal zone with several disturbances tracking along it will stay along the Appalachians, but precipitation associated with this feature could impinge upon our northern and western borders late in the day but will likely remain west of the area. High temperatures will continue to march higher with mid 70s to 80 degrees expected throughout the forecast area. Mild temps once again for overnight lows, near 60 degrees. Another round of fog/low stratus is possible by early Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 400 AM Tuesday... Unseasonably warm/record temps are again expected on Thursday in advance of a backdoor cold front propelled by a 1040+ mb surface high building into the area from the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. However, the backdoor front should remain to the north/northeast of central NC during the heat of the afternoon on Thursday. This should yield high temps generally ranging from the mid 70s north to the lower 80s south, with a small chance of showers (generally across northern portions of the area). The aforementioned backdoor front is expected to slowly shift southward into the area very late Thursday afternoon/Thursday evening, along with the potential for some showers across northern portions of the area. The cold front is expected to sink southward into the area on Thursday night, perhaps stalling/loosing steam across southern portions of the area, with the potential for some light rain/drizzle on the the cool stable side of the boundary. Thus, expect a large spread in high temps on Friday across the area, with a high bust potential on temps. How fast the front lifts back northward as a warm front on Friday into Friday night is still in question. For now, expect the a wide range of temps from north to the south across the area on Friday, with highs near 60 late in the day north to highs in the mid to upper 70s far south with the potential for some light rain and drizzle in the brief CAD airmass. Low temps on Saturday morning will be warm for this time of year, in the 50s. With the front north of the area by Saturday, warm air will flood the area for the weekend. The next cold front is expected to approach the area from the west on Saturday night and move into the area on Sunday afternoon/evening with increasing chances of some isolated to scattered showers (though any good dynamics with this system will lift well to the north of the area with the strong sub- tropical ridge off the Southeast U.S. allowing the track of the main surface low to pass well to the north of central NC). Expect highs in the 70s to near 80 for the weekend, with lows in the 50s and 60s. High temps behind the front early next week still look to be above normal, generally in the 60s to near 70 with surface high pressure quickly moving across the region. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 635 AM Tuesday... 24 Hour TAF period: One half to one quarter mile dense fog continues across Central NC. A dense fog advisory is in place for all areas until noon today. Expect fog to remain in place at least through mid to late morning. Visibilities will improve after that but ceilings will remain low, coming up to potentially MVFR briefly before falling back to IFR and lower levels after 00z Wednesday. Winds will be out of the south southwest today at 5-10 kts with little gusting. Long term: A warm, moist weather pattern will promote chances for fog and low stratus the next several mornings. A cold air damming wedge could bring adverse conditions on Friday. A stronger cold front will cross the area on Sunday and Sunday night.
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&& .CLIMATE... RDU Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 75 1939 62 1939 02/21 76 2011 55 1939 02/22 75 1897 60 1897 02/23 79 1980 57 1962 02/24 81 1982 58 1985 GSO Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 74 1922 56 1939 02/21 74 2011 50 1954 02/22 74 1925 57 1980 02/23 74 2017 52 1922 02/24 79 1982 55 1985 FAY Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------- 02/20 82 2014 60 1939 02/21 80 1991 61 1953 02/22 77 2003 56 1989 02/23 80 1922 55 1922 02/24 83 1930 60 1975 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ007>011-021>028- 038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...Ellis CLIMATE...RAH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.