Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 210210 AFDRAH FXUS62 KRAH DDHHMM AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1010 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN UP THE MID- ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 1010 PM SATURDAY... THE SHORTWAVE OVER GEORGIA (WHICH HAS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PRESENTATION ON WATER VAPOR) AND ASSOCIATED SUB-1010MB SURFACE LOW EAST OF SAVANNAH THIS EVENING WILL RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES. THE RAIN SHIELD ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE HAS BEEN ONLY INCHING ITS WAY WESTWARD THIS EVENING...BARELY REACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAMPSON COUNTY SO FAR. THE DRY AIR RIDGE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND MOSTLY NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD KEEP ANY (VERY LIGHT) MEASURABLE PRECIP STAYING EAST OF I-95...WHICH RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE MOSTLY SUGGESTED. HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING OPACITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTH...KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST EVENING...AROUND 60 IN THE WEST TO MID/UPPER 60S IN THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. CENTRAL NC WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER LOW WITH BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DPVA. SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE/EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO MIDS 60S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE LOOKOUT SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY ACCELERATE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY AS IT GETS ABSORBED BY THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALSO SERVE TO PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS COME IN JUST SLIGHTLY WETTER...POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE ADDED SOME SPRINKLES EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY... AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PROPELLED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON A FAIRLY POTENT VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (I.E. TIP OF SAMPSON COUNTY). HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO MOSTLY THE LOW TO MID 50S. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US...WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S... WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S (WITH MAYBE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES). FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT (AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL INDICATE INCREASED CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 805 PM SATURDAY... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFAY AND ESPECIALLY KRWI IN THE 03Z-08Z TIME FRAME...WHEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOIST CIRCULATION PASS NEAREST THE NC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE LINGER OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KINT/KGSO/KRDU. INITIALLY LIGHT NE SFC WINDS WILL BACK TO NW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY - INCLUDING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTINESS INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT KRWI/KFAY - THEN TO SW... WITH A PERIOD STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTINESS INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT KINT/KGSO IN THE FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET. LOOKING AHEAD: A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...A PERIOD OF 6-8 THOUSAND FT CEILINGS...AND EVEN A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER...MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN WED-THU...WITH RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND POOREST CONDITIONS AT EASTERN TERMINALS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...MWS

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