Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 290600 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 200 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will track just to the north of the region tonight around the hot high pressure over the Southeastern US. A surface trough of low pressure will stall across the area through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 845 pm Thursday... The excessive heat warning and heat advisory have been allowed to expire as heat index values have dropped below critical limits. The Subtropical ridge in place over the SE U.S. has kept the afternoon/evening showers and storms to the west and north of central NC. Expect this will generally continue, though an isolated shower and/or storm is still possible across far northern and western reaches of the area (via outflow boundaries possibly making it into the area from ongoing convection to the north and west of central nc) for the next several hours. Otherwise, expect dry conditions overnight, with low temps generally in the lower to mid 70s, with a few locations across the far SE/E remaining in the upper 70s again. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM Thursday... Low-level thicknesses and heights aloft fall slightly on Friday as the subtropical high shifts just east of the area and broad troughiness begins to settle into the area from the west. However of more significance, is the potential for dewpoints to mix out into the upper 60s and lower 70s Friday afternoon owing to the low-level westerly flow that develops in the wake of the surface low exiting off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. So despite similar afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s NW to upper 90s SE, the drier air will suppress heat indices with current forecast grids showing only the far SE zones close to advisory criteria. Confidence is too low at this time to warrant the issuance of an advisory with this package so will let midnight shift re-evaluate. Expect the westerly low-level flow east of the mountains to also suppress convection Friday afternoon, maintaining isolated/slight chance of diurnally driven convection. Lows Friday night in the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 200 AM Friday... Broad troughing aloft over the central MS river valley will progress eastward over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic through early next week, followed by a period of NW flow aloft mid-week as an upper level ridge re-strengthens over the lower MS river valley and Deep South, followed by a ridging aloft late next week as the aforementioned ridge builds E/NE over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. With the above in mind, expect a cooling trend late the weekend through early next week with temperatures becoming near normal, followed by an increase in temperatures by late week as ridging aloft returns to the region. With broad troughing aloft, expect above-normal chances for convection sunday and early next week, with chances somewhat more ambiguous in NW flow aloft by mid-week, followed by below normal chances for convection late-week. With central NC situated on the southern periphery of the westerlies and eventually a period of NW flow aloft, an above normal potential for severe weather will exist if small amplitude waves and/or upstream convection /MCVs/ progress into/across the region, particularly in vicinity of peak heating. -Vincent
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&& .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 815 PM Thursday... VFR conditions are expected with some patchy early morning ground fog possible late tonight. Scattered to isolated storms are possible again tomorrow afternoon, but chances of a storm occurring at a TAF site are too low to include. Outlook: Outside of isolated to scattered storms each afternoon/evening and some patchy early morning fog, expect predominately VFR conditions through Friday. Rain chances are expected to increase by the weekend and into early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...7/CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...mlm

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