Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 291750 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 150 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 1020 AM SUNDAY... AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START (OVERNIGHT LOWS FELL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S)...TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND THEREFORE THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...HIGHS TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME TODAY OVER YESTERDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO HIGHS TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S (WARMEST IN THE SOUTHWEST... COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY... THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES REGARDING THE TIMING OF MOISTURE AND LIFT LATE TONIGHT AND MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO...BUT A REVIEW OF THE BUFR SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THE MAIN WINDOW OF ANY PRECIPITATION LIES FROM ABOUT 10Z TO 16Z OR SO. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110KT 300MB JET AND A 70KT 500MB JET MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT. 850MB THETA-E RIDGING IS PRESENT AS WELL BY ABOUT 12Z MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY QUICK TROUGHING MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND NAM QPF ALONG WITH OUTPUT FROM THE NCEP ARW SUGGESTS A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE POPS ARE NEAR OR AT CATEGORICAL...AND FOR THIS FORECAST WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY WITH THOSE CHANCES FALLING QUICKLY AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS APPEAR TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER AND MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST 2KM DOES NOT REGISTER WITH LIFTED INDICES ABOVE 0C. ALSO...PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF LIQUID...IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE FREEZING DEPTH ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS. ANTICIPATE ABOUT A TENTH-INCH OF QPF IN GENERAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S BEFORE STABILIZING AND POSSIBLY RISING A TOUCH LATE AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ALOFT. THERE COULD BE AN HOUR OR SO OF TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 35 PARTICULARLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT WITH SOME INCREASING WIND AND DRY AIR NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY DURATION FOR ANY FROST...ESPECIALLY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE THE WIND WILL BE LIGHTER A LITTLE LONGER. THE COLD FRONT LIKELY DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL LATE MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE THEN PROVIDED DIMINISHING CLOUDS TAKE PLACE AS ANTICIPATED. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND THAT WILL BE THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 37 TO 41. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY... TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...THEN A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST-FROPA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE LOW IMPACT SEASONABLE WEATHER BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS 65-70 AND LOWS 40-45. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS ON THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY THURSDAY WILL SHIFT EAST AND AS THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SW...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS WAA ENSUES. THE ECMWF IS WETTER AND PRODUCES SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOC WITH THE WAA...WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE WAVE AND IS DRIER. MODELS DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...REGARDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT. GFS IS FASTER AND BRINGS THE FRONT INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING...BY LATE DAY FRIDAY. THERES STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR TIMING DIFFERENCES TO BE WORKED OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE TAKE-AWAY SHOULD BE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK. LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME - HIGHS IN 70S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. CURRENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST... LIKELY BETWEEN 09-16Z. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE BAND OF SHOWERS...THE PREDOMINANT CEILING TYPE SHOULD BE IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRD/DJF NEAR TERM...KRD SHORT TERM...DJF LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...KRD

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