Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 221409 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1005 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring much cooler and drier air to the region through the weekend. Another cold front is forecast to move through the state Monday, bringing additional cool and dry air. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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As of 1005 AM Saturday... Cold advection is noted in regional raobs this morning, albeit weaker than the surge last evening. Winds up to 30kt were sampled below in the subsidence in version at GSO, and 17-22kt gusts are already getting going, with some higher gusts to 28kt in the somewhat expected area from GSO to TDF (mountain wave enhancement?). These should continue for most of the day and then subside quickly this evening. Orographic cirrus over upstate SC should thing out through the morning hours and not have any impact on central NC, with clear skies and dry adiabatic mixing technique suggest highs of 59-66. -BS Tonight, the center of the high pressure is forecast to remain just to the SW, over GA and upstate SC. This is not perfect for maximum radiational cooling as some light stirring of a breeze will likely persist through midnight. After that, it appears that the boundary layer will decouple in most areas allowing a good 6-7 hours of radiational cooling. Lows in the mid to upper 30s should be the result over the rural Piedmont and possibly NW Sandhills (Moore, Lee Counties). Urban areas should be 5 degrees warmer. There could be some light or scattered frost in areas that reach the mid 30s. However, a widespread killing frost is not expected. We will include this information in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Clear skies are expected tonight. - Badgett
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 AM Saturday... Moderation will occur in temperatures as the winds become westerly or west- southwesterly Sunday afternoon. Skies will be Sunny as the high pressure remains south of the area. Highs will moderate about 5 degrees or reach the 65-70 range Sunday. Lows Sunday night will be mostly 40-45 except some upper 30s NE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 225 AM Saturday... Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected at least through the middle of the upcoming work week. A backdoor cold front will surge south as surface high pressure builds southeast out the upper mid west and down the Atlantic coast on Monday. The cold air advection will be delayed until late Monday into Monday night, so highs should have ample time to climb into the mid 70s, with lows Tuesday morning in the low to mid 40s. The cooler airmass will be locked in place Tuesday through Thursday, with highs each day mainly in the mid to upper 60s after morning lows in the mid 40s. Next frontal system will be approaching late Thursday and Thursday night and we should see increased cloud coverage and erosion of the high pressure ridge as southwest flow ensues. Modest warm air advection offset by cloud coverage should produce highs just a touch warmer on Thursday, mostly in the upper 60s. Beyond this point the latest GFS solution features a cutoff low digging south which delays eastward progress of our next surface front and associated moisture advection. Will maintain ongoing forecast trend which banks on a cleaner, progressive frontal passage featuring a small chance of showers later Thursday and Thursday night per the ECMWF. Highs Friday are around 70, but could easily tip a category either way due to lack of confidence in the strength and timing of cool air advection behind the front. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 740 AM Saturday... VFR conditions are expected through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the SW. NW winds at 10-20kt should gust to near 25kt today then diminish to 5kt tonight. Looking Ahead: VFR conditions are expected to rule for the remainder of the weekend and through the majority of next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett/BS SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...Badgett is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.