Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 230216 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1015 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1015 PM TUESDAY... PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS EXITED THE PIEDMONT. BAND OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH AS IT ENTERED THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AT MID AFTERNOON DISSIPATED AS IT ENCOUNTERED A MUCH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR MASS. SFC COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD ENTER THE NW PIEDMONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THIS SFC FEATURE SHOULD PROGRESS SEWD QUICKLY...EXITING OUR SE COUNTIES BY 2-3 AM. LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER DRIER COOLER AIR INTO CENTRAL NC INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20KTS OVERNIGHT THOUGH THE STRONGER GUSTS AROUND 25KTS SHOULD OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK. THE NW FLOW COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL AID TO DISSIPATE/DIMINISH CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CLEARING TREND NOW OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT TO SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWED TO COOL THIS EVENING AND THIS TREND SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS MAY END UP BEING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 207 PM TUESDAY... ...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. STRONG COOL AND DRY ADVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THIS DRYING PROCESS ALONG WITH THE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED MAY LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BECOMES POSITIONED OVERHEAD LATE. A RATHER QUICK RETURN SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY (BUT WITH MUCH LESS VELOCITY 8-12 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON). THIS INFORMATION WILL BE COLLABORATED WITH THE FORESTRY OFFICIALS. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW THE 30 YEAR NORMALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER... SUNNY AND WINDY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S (SE). CLEAR AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NE TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY... TRAILING END OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MINIMAL WITH LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF...BUT DIURNAL TIMING WILL BE FAVORABLE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80...TO PRODUCE RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY (CAPES >1000J) WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION. FRONT REACHES THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MINS WILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S. SATURDAY WE WILL REMAIN MILD...NEAR 80 AGAIN...DUE TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONGER...BUT DRY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE PRESSED SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SETTLES SOUTH DOWN THE EAST COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STALL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION AND DETAILS OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHETHER WE LOCK IN THE COOL AIR AND GET SOME OVERRUNNING OR WHETHER ITS SCOURED OUT AND WE WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WILL INTRODUCE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND LET THE FORECAST EVOLVE. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 740 PM TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. A BROKEN BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS NEAR KFAY... WHERE A BRIEF SHOWER AND/OR WIND GUST OR TWO OF UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 9 PM (VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS ANY PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LIGHT). A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT... ALLOWING WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION... WITH CLEARING SKIES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE SUSTAINED... WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE... STRONGEST EAST (KRWI/KRDU/KFAY). OTHERWISE... EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SUB-VFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOC/W SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THU NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY (WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY)... FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN ON SAT. && .FIRE WEATHER /WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
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AS OF 207 PM TUESDAY... INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WILL GUST TO 30 BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DRY OUT. IN COORDINATION WITH WAKEFIELD AND BLACKSBURG - AND THE FORESTRY OFFICIALS... WE WILL ISSUE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY. .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM... MLM AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT

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