Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 171932 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 332 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT... THEN LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY...THEN MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY... ...A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT FOR THE NW AND NORTH CENTRAL PIEDMONT... VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CONTINUED TO BE FUNNELED INTO CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S FROM VA INTO THE NW PIEDMONT OF NC. THIS REGION WAS DIRECTLY UNDER THE DRY AIR RIDGE. TO THE EAST... DEW POINTS WERE CLIMBING SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WERE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC SW ACROSS FAR EASTERN VA INTO EASTERN NC. THE POSITION OF THE DRY AIR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM CENTRAL VA INTO NW NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS IS WHERE SCATTERED FROST MAY DEVELOP AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE MID 30S. THE COUNTIES EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED ARE FORSYTH... DAVIDSON... GUILFORD... RANDOLPH... ALAMANCE... AND PERSON. THOSE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED FROST SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN CENTERS OF THE TRIAD. THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. TO THE EAST... DEW POINTS SHOULD CREEP UP SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT... AND SOME MIXING WILL CONTINUE AS THE HEART OF THE DRY AIR RIDGE IS TO THE NW OF RDU AND FAY. THEREFORE... LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO GREATLY LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND COOL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS 60-65... THEN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOW COMING IN LINE TO DELIVER ANOTHER CHILLY RAINY SYSTEM TO OUR REGION BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY INTO A PART OF SATURDAY... AS THE CUT OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO COME CLOSER TO THE REGION... WITH A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A DAY IN THE 40S/50S AGAIN WITH RAIN SATURDAY WITH THE NE FLOW... CLOUDS AND RAIN. SATURDAY NIGHT... LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES... BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO FINALLY DRIFT WELL OFF THE SE US COAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE... THE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE REAR OF THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER LOW WITH COOL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO MODIFY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL ALSO MODERATE INTO THE 50S BY MONDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A CONTINUED WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TUESDAY. HOWEVER... A WEAK "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED AS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WILL BE CUT OFF. HIGHS MAY BACK OFF A FEW DEGREES IF THE BOUNDARY DOES INDEED SLIP SOUTHWARD AS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY... READINGS WILL WARM AGAIN BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S AS THE FRONT RETURNS BACK NORTH AND THE MID/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY... UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY - AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE NE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT FRIDAY ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST US COAST FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KFAY/KRWI/KRDU FRI NIGHT-SAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OVER CENTRAL NC. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ007-021>023- 038-039.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/MWS NEAR TERM...BADGETT/BSD SHORT TERM...BADGETT/BSD LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...BADGETT/BSD

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