-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 171932
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
332 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT... THEN LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY...THEN MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY...

...A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT FOR THE NW AND NORTH
CENTRAL PIEDMONT...

VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH CONTINUED TO BE FUNNELED INTO CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S FROM VA INTO THE NW PIEDMONT OF
NC. THIS REGION WAS DIRECTLY UNDER THE DRY AIR RIDGE. TO THE EAST...
DEW POINTS WERE CLIMBING SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WERE
FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC SW ACROSS FAR EASTERN VA INTO EASTERN NC. THE
POSITION OF THE DRY AIR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM CENTRAL VA
INTO NW NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS IS WHERE SCATTERED FROST MAY
DEVELOP AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE MID 30S. THE COUNTIES EXPECTED TO
BE AFFECTED ARE FORSYTH... DAVIDSON... GUILFORD... RANDOLPH...
ALAMANCE... AND PERSON. THOSE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED FROST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN CENTERS OF THE TRIAD. THE
FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

TO THE EAST... DEW POINTS SHOULD CREEP UP SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT... AND SOME
MIXING WILL CONTINUE AS THE HEART OF THE DRY AIR RIDGE IS TO THE NW
OF RDU AND FAY. THEREFORE... LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE
EXPECTED TO GREATLY LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND
COOL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS 60-65... THEN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOW COMING IN LINE TO DELIVER
ANOTHER CHILLY RAINY SYSTEM TO OUR REGION BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY
INTO A PART OF SATURDAY... AS THE CUT OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO COME
CLOSER TO THE REGION... WITH A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
TRACK NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE
A DAY IN THE 40S/50S AGAIN WITH RAIN SATURDAY WITH THE NE FLOW...
CLOUDS AND RAIN. SATURDAY NIGHT... LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN
CHANCES... BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO FINALLY DRIFT WELL OFF THE SE
US COAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. OTHERWISE... THE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE REAR OF THE
DEPARTING MID/UPPER LOW WITH COOL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO
MODIFY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
MODERATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL ALSO MODERATE INTO THE
50S BY MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A CONTINUED WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TUESDAY.
HOWEVER... A WEAK "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE
WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED AS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WILL BE CUT OFF.
HIGHS MAY BACK OFF A FEW DEGREES IF THE BOUNDARY DOES INDEED SLIP
SOUTHWARD AS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY... READINGS WILL WARM
AGAIN BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S AS THE FRONT RETURNS BACK NORTH AND
THE MID/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM NEW
ENGLAND AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY - AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE NE
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT FRIDAY
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS SYSTEM
MAY RESULT IN RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KFAY/KRWI/KRDU FRI
NIGHT-SAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OVER CENTRAL NC.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ007-021>023-
038-039.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/MWS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/BSD
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/BSD
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...BADGETT/BSD