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000
FXUS62 KRAH 160725
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
325 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move east across the region this morning and
reach the coast by late this afternoon. Cool high pressure will
build into the region tonight and Tuesday and persist into the
first part of the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Monday...

...Not a washout at all but a good chance of a brief period of
rain today with mainly light precipitation totals...

The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving across the
higher elevations of the southern Appalachians at 06Z. The
southwesterly flow ahead of the front has produced mild early
morning temperatures in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees. Regional
radar imagery shows a couple of bands of rain showers
associated with the front stretching from near Washington DC
southwest to near Atlanta. One area of showers was located along
and just ahead of the front and the other, more significant
area of rain trails the front.

The cold front will push across the state reaching the Triad
just prior to daybreak, the Triangle during or just after the
morning commute and Interstate 95 by midday. Despite the moist
surface conditions ahead of the front, warm mid-levels across
the region has resulted in a stable air mass with no CAPE and
poor low and mid-level lapse rates across central NC.
Precipitable water values are modest and range in the 1.2 to 1.6
range. Still, higher resolution convection allowing models
suggest the coverage of the showers will pick up a bit as they
move across central NC. This appears to be in response to a
disturbance moving across eastern TN, northeast AL and northwest
GA this morning. Expect scattered showers and areas of light
rain across the Triad for the morning commute with the rain
spreading into the Triangle area during the mid morning to
midday hours. The showers will arrive in the Sandhills and
Coastal Plain during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
Despite the uptick in shower coverage, rainfall amounts will be
light and generally range around to under a tenth of an inch.
The showers will be short in duration ranging from 1 to possibly
4 hours in length with all of the precipitation shifting to the
coastal region by late afternoon. Sky conditions will improve
somewhat quickly behind the front with perhaps a stubborn broken
mid cloud layer persisting into afternoon underneath a veil of
high cirrus. Gusty winds from the north at 10 to 15 MPH with
gusts up to 20 and perhaps 25 MPH are expected this afternoon
behind the front.

Highs today will be complicated by the precipitation, the daytime
arrival of front and the cloudiness, but expect highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s to be realized this morning with
temperatures steady or falling during the afternoon. Cold
advection will force temperatures down well into the 40s
tonight. A stirring north to northeast wind tonight will keep
temperatures from bottoming out. Lows will range from 40 in some
of the colder spots across the interior Piedmont to the mid 40s
southeast. -Blaes
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 315 AM Monday...

The upper-level trough axis pushes east of central NC Tuesday
morning with increasing heights on Tuesday night. Cool high
pressure builds into region on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Mainly
clear skies are expected with perhaps some cirrus clouds,
mainly in east Tuesday morning. High temperatures will range in
63 to 69 range, generally about 5 degrees below normal. Lows
Tuesday night will be chilly as good radiational cooling
conditions and a chilly air mass will result in lows in the
upper 30s to around 40 although some of the cooler locations
across the Piedmont could have lows in the mid 30s and perhaps
some patchy frost. Latest NAM MET guidance provides lows of
39/37/34/33 at Greensboro/Raleigh/Burlington/Roxboro
respectively while the GFS MAV and EC MOS are several degrees
milder. May include a mention of isolated frost across the
Piedmont in the HWO for Wednesday morning. -Blaes
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 300 AM Monday...

The long term forecast is on track. Dry high pressure will remain
entrenched across the region throughout the long term forecast
period. Seasonably cool temperatures with lows mainly in the 40s and
highs near 70 will gradually warm through the week with lows
reaching the 50s and highs in the upper 70s on Sunday.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 AM Monday...

A cold front moving across the higher elevations of the southern
Appalachians at 06Z will push east across central NC this
morning into the early afternoon hours bringing increasing and
lowering clouds along with a broken band of showers and patchy light
rain. MVFR ceilings with rain showers and areas of MVFR visibility
restrictions are expected as the front moves through with
conditions persisting for a few hours behind the front. A brief
period of IFR conditions are possible in some embedded heavier rain
showers. The most adverse aviation conditions are expected in the
09Z-13Z time range in the Triad and the 12Z-17Z time range in the
Triangle, Sandhills and Coastal Plain.

Winds will become northerly at around 12kts with gusts of 20 kts
behind the front with a few gusts as high as 25kts. Conditions will
improve to VFR between 13-15Z in the Triad and 16-20Z in the
Triangle, Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Northeast winds of 8 to 12kts
with mainly clear skies are expected this evening.

Looking beyond the 24 hour TAF period...surface high pressure
will build into the region tonight and Tuesday and persist
through the end of the work week resulting in fair weather and VFR
conditions. -Blaes

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...NRR
AVIATION...BLAES