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246
FXUS62 KRAH 102355
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
755 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Upper level disturbances will pass over the Mid Atlantic and
Carolinas through the weekend, as a warm and humid air mass holds in
place.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 228 PM Thursday...

* A Flood Watch is in effect today for all of central NC through at
  least 2 AM then only the Coastal Plain until 5 AM.

* Weakly organized storms will be capable of torrential rainfall,
  which may result in scattered flash flooding, as well as strong to
  locally severe wind gusts.

The low clouds held on a bit longer than expected today, which has
delayed convective initiation at bit over much of central NC. Highs
today should still top out in the mid to upper 80s, with some
isolated 90s possible. Lows tonight in the upper 60s to low 70s
expected. Aloft, a newd lifting mid-level disturbance will continue
newd across ern NC through this afternoon. Meanwhile, the s/w
approaching from the nw will dive sewd from the mtns to the coast
late this aft through early/mid tonight. While some isolated to
scattered showers/storms are expected over portions of the Coastal
Plain with the leading disturbance, it appears the better chances
and coverage of convection will be with the s/w moving in from the
NW. PWATs are still 2.0-2.2 inches across the area, with MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/Kg, highest in the east. Weak steering winds and deep-
layer shear < 20kts will result in slow storm motions of efficient
heavy rain producing storms, only propagating along the development
of common cold pools and storm scale MCVs. The primary threats with
the convection are flooding and damaging winds. The highest rainfall
totals still expected to be across the southern Piedmont and
Sandhills, however with the significant rainfall that has occurred
over the majority of the Piedmont, it will take less rain to cause
flooding in the hardest hit areas. Similarly, while damaging wind
gusts are possible, with the saturated ground some trees could be
blown down more easily.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Thursday...

With the upper trough shifting farther to the east, there should be
a decrease in showers and thunderstorms compared to the last few
days. Unlike recent days, the highest chance for precipitation
should be across eastern counties instead of western counties.
Considering the two rounds of heavy rain in the last week, one from
Chantal on Sunday and a second round on Wednesday, the entire
forecast area remains under a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall, even though all locations have not previously
received heavy rainfall this week. In addition, the entire forecast
area is also under a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe
thunderstorms, with damaging winds as the primary threat - this
should occur primarily during the late afternoon in the evening.
Expect seasonable temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s and lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Thursday...

The extended forecast doesn`t feature much in the way of synoptic
features, which means there won`t be much variation in the forecast
through the period. While a cold front is forecast to be along the
west side of the Appalachians on Monday and approaching central
North Carolina by Tuesday, the level of confidence this many days
out in a front making it through the region is low. Monday is the
day with the greatest coverage of 60% chances of showers/storms,
although every day in the extended forecast ranges from 40 to 60%
chances for precipitation somewhere across the forecast area. As is
typical with North Carolina summertime convection, the most likely
times for precipitation are the afternoon and evening, with minimal
coverage during the overnight and morning hours. The highs/lows will
stay similar, near 90 and 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 755 PM Thursday...

Of most immediate concern are the scattered to numerous showers and
storms expected to affect eastern terminals through late evening.
The first area of storms will likely impact RWI and FAY through 04z
with a period of IFR vsbys and MVFR to IFR cigs, along with gusts up
to 30-40 kts. These storms have passed by RDU/INT/GSO, although a
few showers may still pass near these sites prior to 04z. Sct-bkn
MVFR/IFR/LIFR cigs based 300-1200 ft AGL and MVFR vsbys in fog are
possible at all sites 06z-13z, with the highest chance FAY/RWI/RDU,
and FAY/RWI could see a couple hours of IFR/LIFR vsbys in fog. VFR
conditions are expected to return 15z-17z Fri morning. There is
another chance for a shower or storm after 18z Fri, mainly over the
E (RWI/FAY), but with high uncertainty regarding coverage and
timing, will not include this mention in these TAFs for now. Outside
of storms, surface winds will be light and variable, under 10 kts.

Looking beyond 00z Sat, the overall pattern will remain largely
unchanged into early next week, with a risk for early-morning sub-
VFR fog/stratus, and a chance for showers and storms each
afternoon into the evening. -GIH
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&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ007>010-021>025-
038>040-073>076-083>086.
Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ011-026>028-041>043-
077-078-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...KC/Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Hartfield