Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 220655 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Bermuda high pressure will remain in control through Friday. A resultant moist southwesterly flow will bring very humid conditions into Saturday. Low pressure is forecast to track over the central Appalachians eastward across VA on Friday night and Saturday morning. The trailing cold front will move through central NC late Saturday or Saturday night, likely stalling over the SE Coastal Plain.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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As of 255 AM EDT Thursday... A very moist SSW flow will deliver a low deck of stratus to our region in the next few hours. These stratus should be slow to burn off this morning, but they are expected to lift out between mid morning and noon. The influx of moisture is in response to the surface high located over Bermuda and "Cindy" over the western Gulf Coast. The deep southerly flow was tapping into very rich moist air from the Gulf and driving it northward into NC. The ridge axis extended from NW to SE across central NC. As this ridge axis slowly retreats NE this morning, the low level moisture will overspread all the region. This afternoon and evening, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The higher chance is expected over the western Piedmont where the tap of deepening moisture is expected. The main issue will be the extent of cloudiness and how much will limit destabilization this afternoon. There are mixed signals from the models/guidance; however, the more aggressive models with the influx of low level moisture appear to be winning out early this morning. Therefore, variably cloudy skies with highs only in the upper 70s to lower 80s is expected over the W-NW Piedmont today. To the east of this area, skies are expected to become partly sunny. MLCAPES near 1500 J/KG should result as readings reach the mid to upper 80s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop especially near the edge of the best heating north and the extensive cloudiness SW. Areas from FAY to RDU to Roxboro should be near or close to this differential heating boundary. Tonight... Showers associated with the deep southerly flow should affect the Mountains. Just how far east this deep moisture and showers end up is questionable. It appears that the Yadkin River or a county or two either west or east, may be the farthest east the showers get. Training showers from S to N should lead to locally heavy rain - but this may end up just west of the Triad overnight. Otherwise, widely scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms may occur at any time overnight. Low stratus are again expected to envelop the region. Lows generally 70-75 (5-8 degrees above normal) indicative of the very moist flow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 AM EDT Thursday... There is a marginal risk of a few of the storms becoming severe, mainly in the NW Piedmont Friday afternoon and night, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible. Models continue to speed up the remnants of Cindy, with the timing of closest approach to NW NC expected Friday night and early Saturday tracking just to our west and north. The system`s warm front is expected to lift into VA early Friday, taking the chance of morning showers/storms northward out of our region. Then Friday is expected to become partly sunny in the warm sector with breezy SW winds to 20-25 MPH. After extensive morning stratus, highs should rebound quickly in the warm sector reaching the lower to mid 90s SE, with mid to upper 80s NW. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening. More widespread convection may affect the Triad late day or Friday evening, with details dependent on many variables including the eventual track/strength of the remnants of Cindy Friday night. There is a marginal risk of a few of the storms becoming severe, mainly in the NW Piedmont Friday afternoon and night, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible. Lows will be in the 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday... Models are starting to come into better agreement with the timing and magnitude of Cindy`s remnants, trending towards a more progressive/sheared solution, which now brings the system through the area between 06 to 15z Saturday. Confidence remains lows with the timing and amplitude of embedded shortwave troughs within the Eastern US trough, with the potential for a series of sfc cold fronts to move through the area Sunday and again on Monday. Appears the better convective rain chances will be in the east, in closer proximity to axis of deeper moisture, otherwise, considerably drier air across the western part of the state should limit pops. Will indicate slight to small chance pops both Sunday and Monday. Highs through Monday should range in the mid/upper 80s NW to lower 90s SE, with balmy lows in the 70s. Below normal temps and less humid conditions will follow in the wake of the secondary cold front Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z Thursday through Monday/... As of 150 AM Thursday... A period of IFR conditions (CIGS) is expected to develop over the region between 09z-12z, then persist through 15z or so. These low stratus will burn off to reveal VFR conditions thereafter into the afternoon. There is a chance of MVFR CIGS this afternoon and evening associated with scattered showers/thunderstorms. Looking ahead beyond 06z/Friday... another period of late night stratus is expected to bring IFR CIGS again Friday morning. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected Fri-Sun, with a chance of MVFR conditions mainly during the afternoon and evening Friday due to a shower or thunderstorm. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...Badgett

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