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000
FXUS62 KRAH 220655
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
255 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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Bermuda high pressure will remain in control through Friday. A
resultant moist southwesterly flow will bring very humid conditions
into Saturday. Low pressure is forecast to track over the central
Appalachians eastward across VA on Friday night and Saturday
morning. The trailing cold front will move through central NC late
Saturday or Saturday night, likely stalling over the SE Coastal
Plain.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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As of 255 AM EDT Thursday...

A very moist SSW flow will deliver a low deck of stratus to our
region in the next few hours. These stratus should be slow to burn
off this morning, but they are expected to lift out between mid
morning and noon. The influx of moisture is in response to the
surface high located over Bermuda and "Cindy" over the western Gulf
Coast. The deep southerly flow was tapping into very rich moist air
from the Gulf and driving it northward into NC. The ridge axis
extended from NW to SE across central NC. As this ridge axis slowly
retreats NE this morning, the low level moisture will overspread all
the region.

This afternoon and evening, there is a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. The higher chance is expected over the western
Piedmont where the tap of deepening  moisture is expected. The main
issue will be the extent of cloudiness and how much will limit
destabilization this afternoon. There are mixed signals from the
models/guidance; however, the more aggressive models with the influx
of low level moisture appear to be winning out early this morning.
Therefore, variably cloudy skies with highs only in the upper 70s to
lower 80s is expected over the W-NW Piedmont today. To the east of
this area, skies are expected to become partly sunny. MLCAPES near
1500 J/KG should result as readings reach the mid to upper 80s.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop especially near
the edge of the best heating north and the extensive cloudiness SW.
Areas from FAY to RDU to Roxboro should be near or close to this
differential heating boundary.

Tonight... Showers associated with the deep southerly flow should
affect the Mountains. Just how far east this deep moisture and
showers end up is questionable. It appears that the Yadkin River or
a county or two either west or east, may be the farthest east the
showers get. Training showers from S to N should lead to locally
heavy rain - but this may end up just west of the Triad overnight.
Otherwise, widely scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms may occur
at any time overnight. Low stratus are again expected to envelop the
region. Lows generally 70-75 (5-8 degrees above normal) indicative
of the very moist flow.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

There is a marginal risk of a few of the storms becoming severe,
mainly in the NW Piedmont Friday afternoon and night, with isolated
damaging wind gusts possible.

Models continue to speed up the remnants of Cindy, with the timing
of closest approach to NW NC expected Friday night and early
Saturday tracking just to our west and north. The system`s warm
front is expected to lift into VA early Friday, taking the chance of
morning showers/storms northward out of our region. Then Friday is
expected to become partly sunny in the warm sector with breezy SW
winds to 20-25 MPH. After extensive morning stratus, highs should
rebound quickly in the warm sector reaching the lower to mid 90s SE,
with mid to upper 80s NW. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected during the afternoon and evening. More widespread
convection may affect the Triad late day or Friday evening, with
details dependent on many variables including the eventual
track/strength of the remnants of Cindy Friday night. There is a
marginal risk of a few of the storms becoming severe, mainly in the
NW Piedmont Friday afternoon and night, with isolated damaging wind
gusts possible. Lows will be in the 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...

Models are starting to come into better agreement with the timing
and magnitude of Cindy`s remnants, trending towards a more
progressive/sheared solution, which now brings the system through
the area between 06 to 15z Saturday. Confidence remains lows with
the timing and amplitude of embedded shortwave troughs within the
Eastern US trough, with the potential for a series of sfc cold
fronts to move through the area Sunday and again on Monday. Appears
the better convective rain chances will be in the east, in closer
proximity to axis of deeper moisture, otherwise, considerably drier
air across the western part of the state should limit pops. Will
indicate slight to small chance pops both Sunday and Monday.

Highs through Monday should range in the mid/upper 80s NW to lower
90s SE, with balmy lows in the 70s.

Below normal temps and less humid conditions will follow in the wake
of the secondary cold front Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday through Monday/...
As of 150 AM Thursday...

A period of IFR conditions (CIGS) is expected to develop over the
region between 09z-12z, then persist through 15z or so. These low
stratus will burn off to reveal VFR conditions thereafter into the
afternoon. There is a chance of MVFR CIGS this afternoon and evening
associated with scattered showers/thunderstorms.

Looking ahead beyond 06z/Friday... another period of late night
stratus is expected to bring IFR CIGS again Friday morning.
Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected Fri-Sun, with a
chance of MVFR conditions mainly during the afternoon and evening
Friday due to a shower or thunderstorm.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...Badgett