Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 232007 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 407 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY... THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND SHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE VA BORDER...TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE TEMPERATURE CRITERIA FOR A FROST ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY LOWER THAN THE FORECAST LOWS...THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VEERING AROUND FROM NE TO SE DURING THE DAY...THEN TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT... INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP A BIT BRINGING RAIN INTO THE AREA...SO WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH/NORTHEAST TO MID 70S SW. WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MID 40S NE TO LOW 50S SW. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY... A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...MOST NOTABLY BEING THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON OUR PRECIP AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT. THE GFS MOVES THE WEAK ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE SOMEWHAT SLOWER IN ITS PROGRESSION (WITH THE NAM BEING IN THE MIDDLE). WITH THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE (PER GFS)...SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT... THUS LIMITING THE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...OUR AREA WOULD BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALL OF THIS WOULD LEAD TO A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION...FEATURES COULD LINE UP MORE FAVORABLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEVERTHELESS...EVEN THE GFS INDICATES SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST) AS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 80 DEGREES AND THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR PRECIP TO AN END. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. ANOTHER REINFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING IN. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER FOR CENTRAL NC...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT TO BE WORKED OUT WITH REGARD TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. OVERALL THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH OUR BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT/TIMING OF CLOUDS/PRECIP. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG (10-15 KTS) AND GUSTY (20-25 KTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... ABATING AFTER SUNSET AS NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION COMMENCES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED. LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THOUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS IN THE IFR RANGE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER /TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/... AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY... ...INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY... WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST SUSTAINED AT 12-18 MPH WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20-25 MPH. THESE WINDS...COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 21-27 PERCENT...AND SOMEWHAT LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE IN THE 7-8% RANGE...WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINE IN PRE- SUPPRESSION FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS. THE RH WILL BE A BIT HIGHER ON THU...WITH LIGHTER WINDS...HOWEVER THE FINE FUELS ARE LIKELY TO BE EVEN DRIER. THEREFORE...THOSE INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE EXTRA CAUTION. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM... KRD AVIATION...KC FIRE WEATHER...KC/HARTFIELD

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