Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 221555 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1155 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1130 AM TUESDAY... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. DCVA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MARGINAL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 19-22Z IN THE TRIAD AND 21-02Z IN THE TRIANGLE AND COASTAL PLAIN...SIMILAR TO WHAT HIGH-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUCH AS THE HRW-NMM INDICATE. THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...THOUGH WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF HWY 1 IF DESTABILIZATION...DCVA AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE FAVORABLY JUXTAPOSED. THE POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS THAT FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT IS STABLE AND BRINGING IN LOW DEW POINTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT THE AREA AND SUPPRESS ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DRY AIR IS MIXED FROM ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT SOON AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. -SSR/VINCENT
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY... FOR WED/WED NIGHT: A PLEASANT AND SLIGHTLY COOL DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY. THE DRY AND STABLE COLUMN WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW SHOULD YIELD GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WED INTO WED NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DROP TO AROUND 25-30 M BELOW NORMAL... SUGGESTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FACTORING IN THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. BELOW-NORMAL LOWS WED NIGHT 40- 47... WITH INCREASING (BUT STILL THIN AND LOW IN COVERAGE) MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL ENERGY RIDES ATOP THE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO OUR WEST. -GIH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...AND RESULTING HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID 70S WEST TO AROUND 70 IN THE EAST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RETURN FLOW WILL THEN RAMP UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/ OHIO VALLEY REGION. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN NAM SOUNDINGS WITH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... FOCUSING LOW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST. MODELS ALSO HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DCVA MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE. BY THE TIME THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE BETTER AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WTH DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...AND SO SOME DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY STRONG...UP TO 35KT...AND WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY NOT LINE UP FOR MUCH SEVERE THREAT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MID TO UPPER 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN ESSENTIALLY WASH OUT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS SHOW CENTRAL NC REMAINING MOSTLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FRONT HOLDING JUST TO OUR NORTH. THERE ARE RATHER LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE ACROSS THE GRAT LAKES REGION. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH/CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 1145 AM TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOC/W ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SUCH A POTENTIAL. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. SUB-VFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOC/W SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THU NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY... FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN ON SAT. -VINCENT
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...SSR/VINCENT SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...VINCENT

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