Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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186 FXUS62 KRAH 231725 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 125 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...An upper level low will move across the area today, before tracking along the East Coast and away from the region on Tuesday. A strong upper level ridge will build over the Southeast through the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /through tonight/... As of 1125 AM Monday... Minor tweaks made to the near term forecast. Have adjusted PoPs up over the northeast third of the CWA to account for patchy light rain through mid day/early afternoon. Otherwise expect scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two across the region from mid afternoon through sunset. Pesky upper level low has begun push to the east-northeast and on track to exit our region by late in the day and well offshore tonight. Spokes of vorticity will continue to pivot around this feature with one axis currently working its way across our northern counties. This feature will continue to progress south-southeast, possibly triggering additional shower development across the southern counties by mid afternoon. While a thunderstorm possible, parameters are not quite there for the potential for severe storms. The shear is too weak and instability even weaker. Temperatures this afternoon highly dependent upon extent of cloud coverage and showers. Where clouds are thickest/more prominent and potential for rain highest (ne third), temperatures in the 60s will be the rule. Where peeks of sunshine occur, temperatures should warm into the 70-75 degree range. Expect the warmest temperatures in the far south and southwest where mixture of sun/clouds expected. -WSS Height rise aloft and high pressure building in from the west will rapidly diminish precip coverage this evening, while skies slowly clear behind the departing upper trough. Lows in the low/mid 50s. -22 && .SHORT TERM /Tuesday and Tuesday Night/... As of 340 AM Monday... While the center of the mid/upper-level low will be in the process of lifting up the coast of the northern Middle Atlantic and Northeast...a couple of low amplitude impulses are forecast to wrap, in NW flow on the WSW periphery of the departing low, across eastern VA/NC through early-mid afternoon Tue. Residually steep mid-level lapse rates /6 to 6.5 C/KM/ over the NE Piedmont and Coastal Plain, and diurnal heating into the lower 80s, will contribute to perhaps a couple of hundred J/KG of MLCAPE there, where an isolated shower/sprinkle (POP of only 10-15 %) may occur before following strong height rises aloft and an associated subsidence inversion overspread the region. One more night in the 50s, to around 60 degrees, is expected in continued height rises in NW flow aloft Tue night. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... As of 355 AM Monday... Increasingly hot, but mainly dry. Within a relatively highly amplified flow pattern consisting of a western CONUS trough and eastern CONUS ridge, a couple of low amplitude southern stream perturbations will migrate across the Middle Atlantic late Wed-Fri. These perturbations will get trapped and stretched in a deformation zone aloft between the center of a couple of sub-tropical highs over Mexico and offshore the SE U.S coast, and may contribute to the development of diurnal convection across the Appalachians and/or along the sea breeze in coastal areas during that time. While an associated shower or storm cannot entirely be ruled out even over central NC, a lack of any more appreciable focusing mechanism suggests that probability will be low. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees mid-late week, with perhaps slightly cooler conditions owing to a slightly onshore component to the low level flow, this weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday through Saturday/...
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As of 125 PM Monday... Ceilings varying between MVFR across the northeast piedmont and the coastal plain to low end VFR across the western and southern piedmont will persist through sunset as energy rotating around an upper level low over far northeast NC. As the atmosphere heats up, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will blossom over the region. The greatest coverage will occur between 20Z-00Z. After 00Z, shower coverage will decrease. Later tonight, as the low pulls farther away, skies will gradual clear, clearing first over the western/southern piedmont and sandhills, and last in the vicinity of KRWI. Pockets of MVFR fog may occur early Tuesday morning. Otherwise, high pressure will begin to exert its influence on our weather. A prolonged period of VFR conditions is anticipated across central NC Tuesday through Saturday.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...22 NEAR TERM...WSS/22 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...WSS

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