Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 011920 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 220 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A departing cold front will push off the Southeast coast today. High pressure will build over the Eastern U.S. from the west today into the weekend. Upper level disturbances will approach the eastern U.S. from the north and west on Sunday and from the southwest on Monday bringing an increasing chance of precipitation for late Sunday and again late Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1115 AM Thursday... The latest surface analysis shows the cold front now moving off the Carolina coast as of 16Z. A much drier air mass is moving into the region as noted by surface dew points that are falling through the 40s into the 30s as of late morning compared to dew points in the 60s to near 70 observed 24 hours ago. Deep layer moisture is also reduced with the precipitable water value at KGSO from this morning`s 12Z sounding at 0.32 inches. Given large scale subsidence today and the drier atmosphere, skies will be clear and sunny today. Cold advection behind the front is not terribly robust so highs will be cooler than Wednesday but still above normal. Given the warm start in the east where the front exited, only a few hours ago, will adjust highs in the central and southern Coastal Plain upward several degrees into upper 60s. Highs will range in the lower to mid 60s elsewhere. Northwest winds will range around 8 to 14 MPH with a few gusts to near 20 MPH. -Blaes The generally clear skies will continue through tonight; however, a weak shortwave trough located over the Front Range early this morning is projected to track quickly across VA tonight, potentially bringing a few high thin clouds as mid level winds remain rather brisk. Overall, though, expect fair skies at most overnight, with a slackening MSLP gradient yielding light winds. Expect lows of 32-39. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Thursday... Forecast soundings show deep dry and stable air across Central NC on Friday, with a fairly flat and fast mid level flow and high pressure still building in at the surface, leading to generally sunny skies. As this southern stream surface high begins to merge with the larger Canadian high to its NNW, low level thicknesses will drop further on Friday, to around 10-15 m below normal, so temps should follow suit with below normal highs of 53-60. High clouds are expected to being increasing Friday night, spreading in ahead of convection over TX and the lower Miss Valley (ahead of the digging low over NW Mexico). These initial high clouds should be thin however as they encounter the destructive effects of broad ridging over the Gulf States and Southeast, and thus they should do little to impede radiational cooling. Lows 30-35. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 312 AM Thursday... The long term will start out dry and cool as high pressure moves across the Ohio Valley and into the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday and Saturday night. Expect high temperatures to top out in the low 50s on Saturday with lows in the mid 30s. Sunday will be a more active and colder day as the high initially sets up over the eastern half of the state and some lower thickness values sink down from the north causing highs to be right around 50 degrees with an overcast low to mid level cloud deck. Later in the day a somewhat disorganized inverted trough pushes northward out of the deep south and isentropic lift begins to increase Sunday night as a low tries to develop just offshore. This will lead to precipitation chances increasing on Sunday with the bulk of the precipitation with this wave occurring Sunday night and Monday morning. Expect anywhere form a couple of tenths of rain across the north to closer to a half inch in the south. Monday could see a lull in the precipitation between the exiting wave and a much larger system approaching from the southwest which I will talk more in depth about in a minute but for Monday a weak high passing to the north could help to get that pause in precipitation, especially across the north. Temperatures will be a little warmer as thicknesses increase. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Lows Monday night in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. Precipitation chances will pick up significantly on Tuesday as models are in agreement on a Miller B scenario with two low pressure systems coming at us from the southwest, one will eventually move up the Carolina coast with the second through the Tennessee Valley. Diverging upper level flow will move the two lows further apart as they pass over us but that divergence aloft will also provide some good lift that will most likely make Tuesday a wash with early precipitation estimates between an inch and an inch and a half of rain possible from early Tuesday morning through early Wednesday. Highs Tuesday in the mid 50s with lows in the low to mid 40s. Wednesday should see the return of mostly dry weather as the system lingers offshore. Warmer with highs in the mid to upper 50s across the NW piedmont and lower 60s in the southeast. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 220 PM Thursday... High confidence of VFR conditions through the 24 hour TAF period. Surface high pressure and a dry airmass will lead to mainly clear skies and fair weather through Friday afternoon. Westerly surface winds this afternoon at 6 to 12kts with gusts to 15kts at times will become light northwesterly overnight before backing to more westerly on Friday. Looking beyond the 24 hour TAF period... Fair weather is expected to continue into the weekend as surface high pressure builds into the region. Mid and high level cloudiness will increase and thicken on Saturday and lower and thicken into early Sunday. A series of upper level disturbances will bring increasing chances of adverse aviation conditions into the area late Sunday and then late Monday especially Tuesday. -Blaes
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES/HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...BLAES CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.