Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 280802 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 402 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build across our region today, then drift offshore and result in a warming southerly return flow across the Carolinas through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 912 PM EDT Tuesday... Strong subsidence in the wave of the exiting shortwave trough pushing east of the area is leading to abrupt clearing this evening. Thereafter, Canadian high pressure will build into the region advecting cooler and drier air into the Carolinas. This drier cooler air mass and a near calm sfc regime at the surface will allow for very pleasant/comfortable conditions with overnight lows cooling into the 50s overnight across the Piedmont, and near 60-lower 60s across the Sandhills and southern coastal plain. Enjoy, this may the last sub 60 degree readings for quite some time! && .SHORT TERM /Wednesday and Wednesday night/... As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday... An area of high pressure at the surface coupled with rising heights aloft translates to dry and pleasant conditions for Wednesday and Wednesday night. The sfc high will deposit a dry air mass over central NC, maintaining dewpoints int the 50s. After the seasonably cool start, afternoon temperatures will rebound into the low-mid 80s. The center of the high will drift offshore by early Thursday evening, initiating a return sly flow across the NC Piedmont. Thus, dewpoints will start to inch upward indicative of the return of low level moisture. Still, under mostly clear skies, overnight temperatures will remain comfortable for this time of year, generally near 60-lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 355 AM Wednesday... Return flow around expansive high pressure over the central N. Atlantic will yield gradually increasing temperatures and humidity levels, marked most abruptly by the passage of a warm front on Fri, followed by a peak in the humidity this weekend and the heat Mon and Tue. Despite mid level warmth associated with a sub-tropical ridge initially over the swrn N. Atlantic, with resultant weak mid level lapse rates, the aforementioned warming and moistening low levels should prove sufficient for at least scattered diurnal convection throughout central NC during the upcoming holiday weekend, after which time, a sharpening Appalachian-lee trough and mixing out of surface dewpoints (into the lower to middle 60s) to the west will probably shift the focus for convection into the Coastal Plain. Temperatures will trend from the middle 80s to around 90 degrees on fri to lower to middle 90s by early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 AM EDT Wednesday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions will continue through the 24 hour TAF period as surface high pressure builds into and across the region. This will result in light and variable winds and mostly clear skies. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through Thursday evening. A moistening southerly return flow will allow for the chance of early-mid morning sub-VFR conditions from Friday morning on, with an increase in mostly diurnal showers and storms from Friday afternoon onward. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...mlm/BSD

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