Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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688 FXUS62 KRAH 250724 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 325 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push southeastward into central North Carolina tonight. This front will weaken as it pushes to the coast Sunday. A secondary cold front will sweep through the area late Monday, and this will be followed by high pressure building into the area through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 940 PM Saturday... Much of the earlier convection has moved off to the east of the forecast area at this hour with just some light rain remaining along the I-95 corridor. Going into the overnight hours, CAM models show activity coming to a close however some light showers now popping up along the VA border and looking at the surface observations this is with the actual surface front as dewpoints drop off dramatically behind these showers. Will watch this activity for any sustainable precipitation threat overnight. Expect some MVFR visibilities ahead of the front overnight with VFR expected back across the Triad. Lows tonight expected to be in the mid 60s across the NW Piedmont to the low 70s in the southeast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... Subsidence behind the exiting frontal system and deep wly flow will lead to stable and drier conditions. A shower or two will be possible south of Goldsboro-Fayetteville line Sunday morning as the sfc cold front slowly exits the region. While it will remain warm Sunday afternoon with temps in the 85-90 degree range, lower dewpoints will aid to make it feel less oppressive. Drier air will continue to filter into central NC Sunday night, leading to mostly clear skies. Min temps 60-65 across the Piedmont to the upper 60s southeast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 325 AM Sunday... A longwave trough moving across the East during the beginning of the long term period will cross the Carolinas late Tues, pushing a cold front offshore and ushering in high pressure along with a drier and cooler airmass. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that a broken line of showers and tstms may move across central NC Tues afternoon as the trough axis approaches and moves through, however the GFS keeps most of this shower/tstm activity near the coast, while the ECMWF suggests this possibility across central NC as well. For now, given the uncertainty, will keep pops Tues afternoon near climo (20-25%). Dry weather can then be expected Wed-Fri as high pressure transits the East. Temps will be near normal Wed as the high moves in and while overhead, then look for temps and humidity to increase Thu and Fri as the high moves offshore and S-SW low level flow resumes across the Carolinas. Southerly flow will further increase over the weekend in response to a short wave moving across the Great Lakes region and a sfc front approaching the Appalachians. With increases moisture and synop scale forcing approaching, will bring rain chances back into the forecast for the weekend, with highest rain chances west of the Triangle. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday through Thursday/... As of 145 AM Sunday... Cold front moving east across the area early this morning will be accompanied by a few showers and a brief IFR threat at RDU/RWI, with conditions extended through 12-14Z at FAY as the front slows or stalls across the southeast today. Otherwise, a brief predawn period of IFR visibilities in fog are possible due to clearing skies and high low level moisture. Northwest winds 6-8 knots will be prevalent along with VFR conditions at all sites by 14Z and continue through the remainder of the TAF period. Looking beyond Sunday night, VFR conditions are likely to hold through the upcoming work week. It will be overwhelmingly dry, with only a few showers expected with passage of a reinforcing cold front on Tue. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...np AVIATION...mlm/Hartfield

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