Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 171625 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1210 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT... THEN LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY...THEN MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/... AS OF 1050 AM THURSDAY... ...A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT IN THE PIEDMONT... DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL ADVISORY WILL BE UPCOMING. OTHERWISE... VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CONTINUED TO BE FUNNELED INTO CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING. A CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS HAS ALLOWED SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAK ACROSS THE SKY NOTED BY THE CIRRUS. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE CIRRUS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF TO THE NE BY LATE AFTERNOON (PER SATELLITE DATA). NO WORSE THAN PARTY TO MOSTLY SKIES WILL RESULT. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS NEAR 60 NORTH INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY... TONIGHT: CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...PARTICULARLY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL CIRRUS DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM THIS MORNING. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. PATCHY FROST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN RURAL PIEDMONT LOCATIONS. FRI AND FRI NIGHT: A PAIR OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER NM AND SOUTH TX THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GOM AND THE FL PENINSULA...AND WHILE THERE REMAINS LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD FOR A 36-48 HR FORECAST...THE OVERALL TREND IN NWP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOWARD A STRONGER...AND CLOUDIER/WETTER FOR CENTRAL NC...SOLUTION. INDEED...IT NOW APPEARS THAT CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS EARLY FRI WILL PROGRESSIVELY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SUCH THAT A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RESULT ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEFORE SUNSET FRI. THE RAIN...IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...WILL THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF CENTRAL NC FRI NIGHT. WHILE LIKELY POPS ARE NOW WARRANTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW FAR WEST/INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THE RAIN SHIELD WILL EVOLVE/EXPAND...SO ONLY SMALL/SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE INDICATED THERE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE CLOUDIER/WETTER FORECAST WILL ALSO BE A COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS 45-50. -MWS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY... BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION... MORE FAVORED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GFS RUNS ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA... HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER...WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW... AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC LIFT WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. WITH CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW... EXPECT HIGHS BELOW NORMAL... IN THE LOWER 60S. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S... WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION EXITING TO THE EAST. -SEC && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 1205 PM THURSDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO FINALLY DRIFT WELL OFF THE SE US COAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE... THE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE REAR OF THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER LOW WITH COOL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO MODIFY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL ALSO MODERATE INTO THE 50S BY MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A CONTINUED WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TUESDAY. HOWEVER... A WEAK "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED AS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WILL BE CUT OFF. HIGHS MAY BACK OFF A FEW DEGREES IF THE BOUNDARY DOES INDEED SLIP SOUTHWARD AS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY... READINGS WILL WARM AGAIN BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S AS THE FRONT RETURNS BACK NORTH AND THE MID/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 1220 PM THURSDAY... UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY - AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE NE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT FRIDAY ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST US COAST FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KFAY/KRWI/KRDU FRI NIGHT-SAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OVER CENTRAL NC. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS/BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...MWS/SEC LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...BADGETT

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