Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KRAH 281904
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
305 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017
A warm moist southerly flow will continue through the weekend, as a
deep high pressure ridge strengthens off the Southeast coast.
.NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
As of 305 PM Friday...
Quiet and warm weather expected tonight. The mid level anticyclone
will continue to build over and just off the Carolina and Southeast
coast, ensuring net subsidence aloft, with steady warming through
850-700 mb, keeping the column capped. Low level flow from the S and
SW will continue to draw low level moisture into the area, with
gradually increasing moisture transport, and this combined with the
strengthening cap through the 950-850 mb depth should foster
development of stratus overnight. Forecast will show a trend toward
mostly cloudy skies overnight. Expect lows in the 66-71 range. -GIH
.SHORT TERM /Saturday and Saturday Night/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...
Thermodynamic conditions on Saturday will be very similar to today,
though kinematic profiles are progged to be weaker. Regardless, a
strong cap and lack of forcing is once again expected to preclude
convective development. Expect above normal highs in the lower 90s
with lows Sat night in the mid/upper 60s to lower 70s. -Vincent
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 247 PM EDT Friday...
Sunday the surface high will retreat eastward as a low pressure
system moves across the central plains with a cold front extending
down the Mississippi Valley. This will keep central NC in the
southwesterly return flow regime and the warm temperatures will
continue. Expect highs in the low to upper 80s with highest
temperatures across the east with increasing clouds in the west
keeping conditions cooler. Most of the day should be dry but cant
rule out a stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm.
The system to the west will cross the area Monday and Monday night,
thus chances for precipitation go up considerably by Monday
afternoon. Thunder will certainly be possible but the chances for
severe seem pretty low at this time. Models are having a hard time
nailing down how much QPF will be realized at this time. The front
will come through and precipitation threat will end by daybreak on
Tuesday. Behind the front, temperatures will moderate back into the
mid to upper 70s. More of the same for Wednesday with temps rising
back into the lower 80s in the east.
By Thursday precip chances begin to increase once again as the Gulf
of Mexico opens up and a series of shortwaves march towards the
Carolinas with a stronger low pressure system forming by the end of
next week into the weekend. This will keep weather unsettled with
the treat for showers and storms Thursday and Friday with
temperatures backing off into the 70s on Thursday and the upper 60s
.AVIATION /18Z Friday through Wednesday/...
As of 145 PM Friday...
After patchy sub-VFR conditions this morning, scattered to broken
cloud bases have risen to VFR, where they will remain through this
evening, with no vsby restrictions. Beginning soon after midnight,
however, abundant low level moisture will lead to redevelopment of
IFR cigs, most likely after 07z, at all TAF locations. Winds will
stay up at 8-12 kts overnight, favoring clouds over fog, so vsby
restrictions should be no worse than MVFR for most of tonight, and
most places will see VFR vsbys dominate. The prevailing IFR cigs
will rise to MVFR after 14z or so, then to VFR after 16z or so, with
a breeze from the SW sustained at 10-15 kts after 14z. Storm chances
will be very low through 18z Sat, less than 10%.
Looking beyond 18z Sat, VFR conditions will hold through Sat
evening, with once again a very low chance of any storms in central
NC, although scattered showers/storms are possible in the mountains
Sat afternoon. The same scenario is expected Sat night/Sun, with a
good chance of sub-VFR stratus late Sat night into Sun morning,
followed by VFR conditions the remainder of Sun, and afternoon storm
chances confined to the mountains. The risk for sub-VFR conditions
will increase Sun night through Mon, with a better chance of showers
and storms Mon through Mon night as a cold front approaches from the
west (although this front will dissipate before it gets into the
area). VFR conditions are expected Tue into Wed. -GIH