Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 211448 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1050 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An amplifying upper level trough and attendant cold front will track east across the Carolinas today. A cooler and drier airmass will advect into the region from the northwest in the wake of the front tonight and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 1050 AM Friday... Despite an impressive water vapor signature associated with the deep upper wave crossing the Ohio/Tenn Valley, there is very little precip on radar south of Roanoke VA, owing mainly to a lack of deep moisture with PW at one inch or less. Still, with 170m height falls at BNA this morning and intense FGEN showing up from 925mb through 700mb, there should be sufficient forcing to spark a band of showers this afternoon. Latest HRRR runs have shown a small decrease in the coverage of showers that develop along the cold front, which currently extends through western VA to just west of the Triad, as it approaches US 1 around 18Z and I-95 by 21Z. Given the amount of dry air, the environment will be supportive of some 25-35kt wind gusts through dry air entrainment and DCAPE increasing to around 800J/KG across the south, but this conditioned on whether or not any deeper convection can develop without any appreciable instability, which RAP forecast soundings don`t show much support for. Changes to the forecast this morning as minor, mainly to reduce POPs in the west this morning based on radar trends and adjust temps to the lack of early precip. Have also nudged up sky cover in the west with the slowly burning off of fog. Highs should still end up in the upper 60s to upper 70s, with temps starting to fall by mid afternoon the west. -BS Expect rapid clearing from west-east 3-6 hrs after the cold frontal passage at any given location, with clear skies and a NW breeze prevailing tonight. Lows Saturday morning will be driven by both cold advection and radiational cooling, ranging from the low/mid 40s N/NW to mid/upper 40s S/SE. -Vincent && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Friday... Cool, clear and breezy today due to cold advection in the wake of an amplifying upper level wave tracking offshore the Carolina/Mid- Atlantic coast tonight and Saturday. Expect clear skies and a breezy NW wind with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, coolest NW Piedmont. Chilly lows sat night in the lower 40s. -Vincent && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 AM Friday... Dry and seasonably cool weather is expected from Sunday through mid week. Gradually rising heights as high pressure builds in from the south will provide us with a short-lived warming trend Sunday and Monday, with highs warming to the mid and upper 60s Sunday, and further into the low and mid 70s on Monday. A reinforcing shot of dry and cooler air is expected as a cold front moves south and through the area on Monday. This airmass will be locked into place through the midweek as high pressure builds south down the Atlantic coast. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will be mostly 65 to 70 after morning lows mostly in the mid 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 600 AM Friday... 24-hr TAF Period: IFR/LIFR visbys in fog or low stratus will affect eastern terminals (FAY/RWI/RDU) through 12-14Z before dissipating. Shower activity and borderline MVFR/VFR ceilings are expected at all terminals today as a cold front tracks east across central NC. Expect the best chance for showers between 12-17Z at the INT/GSO terminals, 16-21Z at the RDU/FAY terminals, and 17-22Z at the RWI terminal. Southwesterly winds at ~10 kt will prevail in advance of the cold front, shifting rapidly to the NW at 10-15 kt sustained gusting 20-25 knots for 1-3 hours in the wake of the front. Somewhat stronger winds will be possible at eastern terminals where fropa timing will better coincide with peak heating. VFR conditions will rapidly return in the wake of the front, earliest at INT/GSO (this afternoon) and latest at RWI (this evening). Looking Ahead: Breezy NW winds will persist into Sat, sustained at 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt, becoming westerly and weakening on Sunday. VFR conditions are expected to rule for the remainder of the weekend and through the majority of next week. -Vincent && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Vincent NEAR TERM...Vincent/BS SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...Vincent is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.