Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 291859 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 258 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 258 PM WEDNESDAY... SURFACE COLD FRONT..WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM MT AIRY TO ASHEVILLE...HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE ASSOCIATED BAND OF PRECIP HAS PRETTY MUCH HIT THE SKIDS. EXPECTED FROPA TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20- 22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z(~3 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS TIME YESTERDAY). WHILE RECENT RADAR TRENDS LEAVE LITTLE TO GET EXCITED ABOUT...ANA- FRONTAL REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION INTENSITY. INITIALLY...CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY... LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN MANITOBA. DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT THIS TIME. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BROKEN BAND OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC....WITH TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22- 00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. POST-FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WEST- EAST CLEARING BETWEEN 06 TO 15Z THURSDAY. OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL/MWS SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...SEC AVIATION...CBL

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