Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 280057 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 856 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY... THUNDERSTORMS FROM RALEIGH TO ROANOKE RAPIDS WERE DEVELOPING AND MOVING NE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN THE AREAS OF CAPE OF 1500+ J/KG AND MAXIMUM OF THETAE/ADVECTION. AREAS FROM RALEIGH SOUTH AND WEST HAVE GREATLY STABILIZED DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... WHILE THE NE ZONES WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WORKS OVER THE REGION BEFORE EXITING OR DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED DOWNPOURS. LOWS GENERALLY 65- 70. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE AREA MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD. ALSO...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THURSDAY (COMPARED TO TODAY)... BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KTS (OR LESS). THEREFORE...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED...WITH LITTLE TO NO SEVERE THREAT NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 220 PM WEDNESDAY... ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST... KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OUR WEST...ALTHOUGH CAN`T COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS JUST YET FROM OUR TRIAD ZONES. WITH THE RIDGE STILL IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...LOOK FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO BE MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE DEEPER MOISTURE...AND TO OUR EAST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...THE FORECAST FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH...CONSEQUENTLY KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF HWY 64...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO OUR EAST TO SEE HOW FAR ANY SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY CAN PUSH INLAND. FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A COMPLICATED PATTERN APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING WITH A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY OR GULF COAST REGION...AND THE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW RIGHT NOW...PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA SUGGESTS AT LEAST CLIMO-POPS EACH DAY...DESPITE LACK OF MAJOR FORCING MECHANISMS. TEMPS: LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY OR GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL (LOWER-MIDDLE 80S) EARLY- MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. LOWS IN THE 60S EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 830 PM WEDNESDAY... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECTED THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH STILL A FEW ONGOING SHOWERS NEAR KRDU AND KRWI. EXPECTED THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING OFF TO THE NNE... WHILE WEAKENING. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER THIS FROM LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE RATHER WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS. WRT SUB VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT... WILL RETAIN MENTION OF MVFR STRATUS... BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH WE WILL SEE UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK IS QUITE LOW (WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING/MORPHING WITH DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE MORNING)... GIVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. THUS... HAVE DELAYED THE TIMING OF ANY SUB-VFR CIGS UNTIL 12Z... WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 15-16Z. HOWEVER... HAVE ADDED SOME SUB-VFR VISBYS AT KRDU AND KRWI GIVEN THE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN... SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DRIVEN BY OLD OUTFLOW... SEABREEZE... AND ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THUS... WILL ADD A PROB30 GROUP TO ALL TAF SITES FOR TOMORROW AS NO ONE AREAS IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK: THE THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE SOME INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...77/KRD

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