Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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019 FXUS62 KRAH 310502 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 100 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Post Tropical Cyclone Bonnie over northeast South Carolina will drift slowly to the northeast along the North Carolina coast through mid week, before moving offshore. A cold front will approach from the west late in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /through tonight/... As of 825 PM Monday... Scattered to numerous showers and storms have dwindled in coverage and intensity since 22Z, and this trend should continue through the rest of the evening. Highest threat for showers through 04z will remain along moisture corridor, depicted by meso-analysis extending along and east of highway 1. Model guidance in good agreement in pushing the moisture plume, currently covering the coastal plain, eastward overnight into Tuesday. This loss of deep moisture should lend to a possible decrease in afternoon convection on Tuesday. Residual low level moisture overnight should lead to the development of areas of fog and widespread low clouds after 06z, persisting into the mid-late morning hours of Tuesday. Overnight temps generally in the mid-upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Tuesday night/... As of 345 PM Monday... Not a lot of change in conditions are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night as the remnant low of Bonnie slowly meanders up the Carolina coast. While the upper level trough across the Carolinas lifts somewhat on Tuesday and Tuesday night, the trough axis shifts only ever so slightly east. The air mass across the region changes very little with deep moisture persisting as precipitable water values at or above 1.5 inches across much of the RAH CWA. Accordingly, sensible weather conditions on Tuesday should be similar to those of today with areas of morning stratus and fog giving way to improving conditions with some breaks of sunshine, especially in the western and southern Piedmont. Primarily diurnally forced convection should redevelop on Tuesday, with perhaps a subtly decrease in coverage with convection most widespread during the afternoon and early evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be most numerous across the northeast Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. Highs in the low-mid 80s, coolest east where clouds should be thickest with greater shower coverage. Lows mostly in the mid 60s. -blaes && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/... As of 345 PM Monday... A rather unsettled period expected as the remnants of Bonnie slowly drift up the NC coast on Wednesday and Thursday. The remnant surface low should move offshore on Friday as the western Atlantic ridge weakens and an initial northern stream short wave trough moves across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday and an associated cold front drops into the Mid Atlantic. The result will be a continuation of a fair amount of cloudiness and the threat of mainly afternoon or evening scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances should decrease a bit on Wednesday into early Thursday before ramping up again on Friday as the cold front approaches. It will be muggy with highs in the lower to mid 80s on Wednesday warming into the mid to upper 80s by Friday. Morning lows will range in the mid to upper 60s. Forecast confidence decreases for the end of the period as the southern extent of the developing trough in the Plains closes off in Texas on Friday into Saturday as the northern portion of the trough deepens and slowly moves east over the weekend into Monday. A cold front will linger across the area over the weekend before possibly being pushed offshore on Monday. This will result in increasing rain chances over the weekend with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the 60s. -blaes && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday through Saturday/...
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As of 100 AM Tuesday... Persistence will be the rule today, with aviation weather likely to follow a pattern similar to yesterday, meaning a high chance of predominant adverse aviation conditions through this morning and again as we head through tonight. Patchy showers over north central NC should continue to slowly diminish as the low levels stabilize. Decreasing clouds early this morning should lead to stratus and fog development this morning (best chances at GSO/RDU/RWI but possible at all sites) with IFR conditions expected. The IFR fog/stratus will slowly lift to MVFR by mid morning (by 12z-14z) and to VFR by midday (14z-16z). Scattered showers with MVFR vsbys and brief MVFR cigs are possible this afternoon and evening mainly at RDU/RWI/FAY, and isolated storms are also possible. These showers should slowly weaken and dissipate toward the end of the TAF valid period. Winds will remain light, mainly under 10 kts, from the NE today. Looking beyond 06z early Wed morning: Another round of IFR fog and stratus is expected late tonight into Wed morning, improving to VFR by late morning. More scattered afternoon showers and isolated storms will affect central NC TAF sites Wed with brief MVFR conditions. More IFR stratus/fog is then expected late Wed night into Thu morning. The risk of showers/storms appears to be less on Thu afternoon than in recent days, so VFR conditions should dominate. An approaching cold front will bring a return to mostly afternoon showers and storms Fri/Sat. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...blaes LONG TERM...blaes AVIATION...Hartfield

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