Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 270612 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 210 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will extend across the area through today. A low pressure system developing off the Southeast coast will drift toward the northwest into the Carolinas and Southeast over the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /through tonight/... As of 924 PM Thursday... Convection associated with the lingering upper shear axis over western NC, caught/trapped with in the upper level ridge axis in place across the region has diminished with loss of heating. Outside of an isolated shower across the far western Piedmont, remainder of the night will be dry. The continued modification of the low level atmosphere along with patchy mid level cloudiness will support mild overnight temperatures. Min temps in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /Friday through Friday Night/... As of 335 PM Thursday... A narrow ridge of high pressure aloft will extend west-east across central NC. This feature will maintain a mid level cap and inhibit convective development over most of the region. The exception may be the far west-nw where outflow boundaries from overnight convection and linger weak upper level disturbance may enable an isolated shower or storm to develop during the heat of the day. Low level thicknesses comparable to today, supportive of afternoon temps well into the 80s, near 90 in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Continued mild overnight with min temps in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/... As of 230 PM Thursday... The main forecast concern for this period continues to be the potential tropical/sub-tropical development of an area of low pressure between the Bahamas and Bermuda this weekend. The upper level ridge responsible for the recent quiet weather will break down as the coastal low develops. To the west, an upper level trough will linger for the weekend. A shortwave will progress from the southern Rockies northeastward along the trough axis toward the Great Lakes. As the upper level short wave moves through the Great Lakes, the northeastward moving coastal (tropical) low will progress toward the SC coast. As of the most recent runs, the models indicate these two features interacting Sunday night/Monday. The upper level shortwave could absorb the coastal low (possible tropical system) on Monday. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty on whether the low will move up the Mid-Atlantic coast or hand out along the Carolina coast before slowly moving inland. Regardless of this, the majority of this period appears to be fairly unsettled, with chances for convection, highest in the aft/eve, everyday. Much of the coverage, duration, and timing of convection will depend on how the system evolves and thus confidence is still somewhat low. With the strong advection of Atlantic moisture into the region on the northern edge of the low, expect increasing clouds from the east on Saturday, though much of the day will remain dry. Cloudy skies could persist through much of the period. Temperatures through the period: with the increasing clouds and chances for rainfall, expect highs to decrease from the mid 80s on Saturday, to upper 70s to low 80s Sunday. Highs should slowly moderate back into the mid 80s by the middle of the week. Overnight lows will remain fairly steady in the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday through Tuesday/...
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As of 210 AM Friday... High confidence in VFR conditions dominating central NC terminals today through tonight. A ridge of surface high pressure centered offshore east of VA/NC will continue to extend to the west and southwest, resulting in a light surface flow mainly from the SW over central NC, and sufficiently dry low levels to preclude fog development. Meanwhile, dry and sinking air in the mid levels will suppress most cloud development, with any clouds likely to be based at 4-6 kft AGL. Pockets of shallow ground fog are possible near RWI this morning (due in part to the proximity of water) between 08Z and 12Z, however the latest guidance shows a low enough potential to preclude a mention in the TAF at this time. An isolated storm is possible near INT/GSO late this afternoon or early evening, but coverage will be too low to include in these TAFs. Looking beyond 06Z early Sat morning: VFR conditions are likely to hold through at least early afternoon Sat. Clouds will then thicken and lower from SE to NW -- affecting FAY and RWI first -- starting late Sat, as an offshore low pressure area tracks NW toward the Southeast states. Areas of MVFR/IFR conditions in rain and isolated storms are expected to spread into the FAY vicinity Sat evening before expanding across all central NC terminals late Sat night, continuing into Sun. Areas of sub-vfr fog are possible Sun night and Mon night, with mostly VFR conditions during the day Mon and Tue, however the forecast confidence drops dramatically beyond Sun regarding the path of the offshore low... so aviation interests should monitor the latest forecasts closely over the long holiday weekend. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...CBL/WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...Hartfield

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