Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 310713 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 313 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1035 PM SUNDAY... LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE HAD A HARD TIME MAKING IT MUCH FARTHER INTO CENTRAL NC. MODEL FORECASTS STILL SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THUS EXPECT GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST...AND CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POINTS EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 324 PM SUNDAY... UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY... AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE... AND WILL SUPPORT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER THREAT SHOULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY... AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK TO ACROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO IT. THE LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE S/W SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF S/W RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA BEFORE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE... THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY... LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG 595 DECAMETER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN... THE LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT IN THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE... WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING/EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS... AT THIS TIME... WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW... SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT WILL GENERALLY BE MEAN RIDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME (WITH THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLOSED LOWS). HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO POSSIBLY SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 145 AM MONDAY... DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. DEEP INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z MONDAY... WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LIFR TO IFR AS SHOWERS/RAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE GREATEST AND MORE PROLONGED AT EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS STRONGEST. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...77 AVIATION...CBL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.