Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 221838 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 240 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... .SYNOPSIS...An upper level trof will linger along the Coastal Plain today, with light northerly flow at the surface. This pattern will last through the weekend, with some modestly drier air edging into central NC later Saturday as high pressure builds down the Atlantic coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 PM Friday... Weak high pressure will persist over the area tonight and the upper trof will edge nearer the coast. The diurnal cumulus field will dissipate prior to sunset leaving us with clear skies overnight. Conditions will be conducive to some patchy fog in the east where areas from Rocky Mount to Goldsboro received pretty good shower coverage on Thursday. Mins will be close to persistence from this morning as clear and calm conditions allow temps to radiate to the dew points in the low and mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Friday... The upper ridge building to our NW is expected to edge east then down the Atlantic coast Saturday into Saturday night. Will be warm and dry tomorrow with highs similar to today...85-90. A modest surge of reinforcing dry air is expected tomorrow night as the ridging surges south, with mins falling a couple of degrees, from 60 to 65. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 240 PM Friday... The main weather story for the long term is the subtle westward shift in the models and official NHC track regarding Maria for the middle of next week. Despite this westward shift, the system is still forecast to be far enough to our east to proclude any significant impacts on our weather other than a uptick in cloudiness across our eastern zones, and an uptick the breeze, from late Tuesday through early Thursday. Of course that can change if the westward trend continues. In fact, if the forecast track shifts much more westward with subsequent runs, then we`ll have to do a notable increase in our PoPs and wind; but for now, looks like the weather with Maria should stay mostly to our east. Otherwise, the rest of the long term period is dry with high pressure influencing our weather before Maria approach, then dry again in the wake of Maria as the storm moves northeastward away from the Mid-Atlantic coast. Above normal temps continue in the long term. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 100 PM Friday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are expected with light and variable winds. Exception will be persistent late night fog and low stratus in the RWI area in the 08-13Z time range. Outlook Sat-Wed: Patchy fog will be possible each morning, mainly at RWI and FAY, with VFR conditions as high pressure centered north of our region lingers through early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...mlm NEAR TERM...mlm SHORT TERM...mlm LONG TERM...nmp AVIATION...mlm is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.