Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 060258 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 950 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 950 PM THURSDAY... RADAR APPEARS TO SHOW THE LAST OF ANY PRECIP IN A NARROW BAND AS IT IS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH IS SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING LOST AS THE 850MB IS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY...SO FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WANING. AFTER SCATTERED REPORTS OF SNOW AND SLEET FROM THE TRIAD TO THE TRIANGLE AND NORTHWARD...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THE REMAINING MOISTURE ABOVE -10C WILL BE LOST BY 10PM. THE HRRR SOUNDINGS DO STILL SHOW A SMALL WINDOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW VIA THE SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS...AND THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY AN AIRCRAFT (AMDAR) SOUNDING AT KRDU JUST BEFORE 900 PM. THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE WEAK AND SHALLOW BANDS STILL DRIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL BE GONE BY 11PM... SO THE MAIN PRECIP MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AS STRONG WHERE TEMPS ARE FALLING BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP HAS ENDED. WHILE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...THE HRRR SHOWS RAPID CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE REMAINING MOISTURE BELOW 850MB IS SCOURED OUT. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MOST GUIDANCE GIVING UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN DELAYED SO FAR...WILL NUDGE TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM/MET GUIDANCE. THE ROADS WILL REMAIN WET OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE A FEW HOURS OF A DRYING WIND WILL NO DOUBT HELP...BLACK ICE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AS IS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER. CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS ON FRIDAY...BECOMING CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOW 40S SOUTHWEST AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S. CLOUDS WILL BUILD BACK IN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS WARM MOIST AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY... SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONTINUES TO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY... WHICH WOULD ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING POPS WOULD BE SPREADING BACK INTO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST WITH SURFACE WAVES DEVELOPING AND RIDING NORTHEAST UP THE FRONTAL ZONE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WOULD TAKE A HIT WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ENHANCING IN SITU DAMMING...AND HIGHS WILL STALL IN THE 50S... PERHAPS A BIT LOWER IF THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES ALLOWS FOR A MORE FAVORABLE DAMMING FEATURES TO ALIGN. CONFIDENCE FALLS OFF FURTHER IN THE WED AND THU PERIODS DUE TO QUESTIONABLE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 BOTH DAYS. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 740 PM THURSDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO OVERRIDE COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... ALLOWING OR GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS. SEVERAL BANDS OF GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY AS WELL. PRECIP MAY MIX OR TURN TO SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET AT KGSO/KINT/KRDU/KRWI THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING BY GENERALLY MIDNIGHT OR SO. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT PRECIP THINK VISBYS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER THIS EVENING WITH ANY PRECIP. IN ADDITION... AS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WE WILL SEE A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND IN THE 9 TO 14 KT RANGE... WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 22 KTS OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY GENERALLY 09 TO 12Z. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT KRWI/KFAY/KRDU UNTIL AS LATE AS 15Z... WITH EVEN A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AT KGSO/KINT AT AROUND 2500FT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AS WELL. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY MID TO LATE MORNING... AND CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. OUTLOOK: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AS MORE WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTS INTO CENTRAL NC. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028- 038>043-078. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ073>077-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS/BLS SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...BSD/KC

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