Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 221344 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 944 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will build eastward into the Mid-Atlantic through mid-week. A dry surface ridge will extend southwest into the region through late-week as high pressure moves offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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As of 920 AM Monday... In the wake of the upper trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning, quasi-zonal flow aloft will develop across the area as the flat subtropical ridge extends across the GOM and Deep South. Meanwhile, a strengthening dry air surface ridge building eastward into the Mid-Atlantic Region will deliver noticeably drier/less humid air into the Carolinas, with dewpoints falling into the 50s this afternoon and evening. Capped from convection, sunny skies will support seasonable/near normal highs in the mid 80s north to near 90 south. With the dry air in place, clear skies and light winds overnight, strong radiational cooling will allow temperatures to fall into the mid/upper 50s north, to lower 60s elsewhere, some of the coolest readings that many places have seen for nearly 2 months.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 100 AM Monday... Shortwave ridging aloft (located upstream over the MS river valley at 06Z this morning) will progress east to the Appalachians Tue/Tue night as an upper level ridge builds/strengthens along the Deep South Gulf coast...anchoring surface high pressure along the Mid- Atlantic coast and maintaining the dry surface ridge extending into the Carolinas from the NE. Expect continued clear skies with high temperatures similar to today, and lows Tue night a few degrees warmer than tonight. -Vincent && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 318 AM Monday... High pressure and relatively dry airmass will continue to provide fair weather for the mid-to-latter portion of the work week. Low level thicknesses are progged to gradually increase during this time, esp with the upper ridge building eastward and overtop the Carolinas by Friday, so seasonable temps on Wednesday will rise several degrees above normal, with highs returning to the lower 90s by Friday. Also noted that by Friday, a weak front is progged to drift south toward our area, but is expected to stall and dissipate as it approaches the VA border with little impact on our weather other than increased cloudiness. The weekend, right now at least, appears to feature fair weather with below-climo pops and near to slightly above normal temps given the pattern which features an upper ridge parked over the Carolinas. While not a concern for us now, we`ll be keeping an eye on the tropics given the disturbances that are out in central tropical Atlantic attm. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 630 AM Monday... 24-hr TAF period: VFR conditions and a light northwest breeze will prevail through the TAF period as a drier airmass advects into the region from the NW in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage. Looking Ahead: VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through mid to late week as dry high pressure builds eastward from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, then gradually shifts offshore the Mid- Atlantic coast. -Vincent && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Vincent NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...np AVIATION...Vincent

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