-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 111846
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
246 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HOLD OVER THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE REDUCED THE ALREADY-LOW POPS FURTHER...
CONFINING CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WITH DRY (BUT MOSTLY
CLOUDY) CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC. THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE ERN EDGE OF THE
CWA WITH VERY LIGHT MAINLY NE WINDS TO ITS WEST. WIDESPREAD STRATUS
PERSISTS AND WITH THE LIGHT FLOW AND STABLE AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...
THIS SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISPERSE THIS MORNING DESPITE DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE. BLENDED TPW AND PW PROGS SHOW WELL THIS MUCH DRIER AIR... AND
THIS COMBINED WITH MINIMAL HEATING THIS MORNING WILL GREATLY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE PRECIP TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TODAY ONLY NEAR
AND EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...
WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT. HAVE
TENTATIVELY KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 RANGE... HOWEVER
BASED ON THE CONTINUED SLOW CLIMB IN TEMPS THUS FAR ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA... THESE MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED DOWNWARD
FURTHER AND WILL RE-EVALUATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. -GIH

TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING WITH
JUST A STRAY SHOWER POSSIBLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...MAY SEE AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS OR PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO NEAR 70 IN THE SANDHILL
AND COASTAL PLAIN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL NC IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING/DISSIPATING MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. WEAK-MODERATE W-NW FLOW
WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF
TRIGGERS ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SE WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE
SEABREEZE MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. ALSO...ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MAY THREATEN THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS IN THIS
REGION LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG OR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY.
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT...THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS
OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
60S/AROUND 70. -WSS
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGING THAT WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL START TO RECOVER
SOME ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...GENERALLY 1.2-1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW SOME
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF MOSTLY DIURNAL TYPE STORMS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE RATHER LOW. IF ANY PRECIP DOES AFFECT THE
AREA...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT (FROM
CONVECTION DRIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN) AND THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SEABREEZE. BY SUNDAY...MAX LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1430M...SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY
LOW TO MID 90S (ALTHOUGH MORE CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND WHICH WOULD
TEMPER THE WARMING SOME). OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

A DEEP VORTEX IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THEREFORE...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. ALSO...GIVEN THIS UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH...
THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND THEREFORE THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST AND THIS WILL
BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEN THERE IS STILL A GOOD
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO IF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN CAROLINA. THUS...WILL SHOW A LITTLE
DECREASE IN POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL KEEP A
CHANCE IN (HIGHES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA)
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP. HIGH
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ON
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE PRECIP...TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN THE DEEP TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...

CLOUD TRENDS FROM MVFR TOWARD VFR WILL CONTINUE... WITH A HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z THROUGH 06Z. VERY MOIST AIR
AND LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS OVER CENTRAL NC
HAVE RESULTED IN A SLOWER-THAN-EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SO FAR TODAY... WITH CENTRAL NC AIRPORTS STILL
SEEING MAINLY MVFR CIGS. THESE WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR AFTER 21Z. WE DO EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG AFTER 06Z... AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z...
AND THIS MAY MANIFEST INTO IFR CIGS AT FAY (WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE HIGHEST). ANY SUB-VFR FOG/STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MIX AND
LIFT TO VFR FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS... AROUND 13Z SAT...
FOLLOWED BY AN EXCELLENT CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REST OF SAT.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SAT... HIGH PRESSURE AND A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS
WILL HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND... CAUSING VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH MON... ALTHOUGH RWI/FAY MAY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
FOG NEAR DAYBREAK SUN AND AGAIN MON. A STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUE/WED. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD