Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS62 KRAH 260859
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
358 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017
High pressure will move in from the west today, then move offshore
later tonight and Monday. A warm front will approach from the south
late Monday, then move north of the region Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 105 AM SUNDAY...
NW winds at 10-20 mph will continue to gust to 25 mph through 400 or
500 am, when they will be reduced to 5-10 mph. CAA will continue
overnight with lows generally above freezing (mid 30s) NW, ranging
into the 40s in the SE. Clear skies with the NW downslope flow and
the strong subsidence per latest observational data.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM SATURDAY...
Flow aloft will become quasi-zonal flow in the wake of upper trough
exiting the Mid-Atlantic region. High pressure building into the
area from the west will quickly move offshore late Sunday night, but
will maintain east to west surface ridging into Monday. This means
that the cooler-more seasonable air will not stay around very long.
Highs ranging from from mid 50s NW to around 60 SE.
Sheared shortwave energy ejecting eastward across the Lower MS
Valley in the progressive low-amplitude flow will bring an increase
in high clouds late Sunday night/early morning and could temper low
temps Sunday night. Lows in the 30s.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 355 AM Sunday...
A warming trend will continue early next week, peaking on Wednesday
in advance of a strong cold front. However, deep southwesterly flow
early to mid next week will allow for plenty of moisture/clouds
along with periods of isolated to scattered showers Tuesday through
Wednesday. A band of showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany
the strong cold front late Wednesday into early Thursday morning.
Deep layer shear will be impressive with this system, on the order
of 50-60 kts, but diurnal timing will be poor with any convective
line moving across the area overnight. Nonetheless, we should at
least see some storms, with at least a small severe threat
(depending on the amount of instability). High temps Tuesday and
Wednesday are expected to generally be in the 70s, with possibly
some lower 80s on Wednesday across southern and eastern portions of
the area. Low temps will follow a similar trend, well above normal,
in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday morning.
Dry weather is generally expected behind the front as surface high
pressure is expected to initially build into the area, before a
reinforcing dry cold front moves across the area on Friday. High
temps behind the initial front late next week are expected to be in
the 60s. High Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the 50s to
near 60 south. Low are expected to be in the 30s late week into the
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.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1220 AM Sunday...
24 Hour TAF Period: VFR will continue for the 24 hour TAF period,
high confidence, as surface high pressure moves across the region.
This will result in decreasing winds speeds early this morning out
of the northwest, generally into the 5 to 10 kt range, with clear
Northwesterly winds in the 6 to 11 kt range to start the day (with
possibly a few wind gusts into the teens during the morning hours)
will become light and variable by mid to late afternoon into the
evening, with mostly sunny/mostly clear skies expected (only some
high thin clouds possible).
Outlook: High pressure will move east and offshore Sun night, which
will bring VFR conditions through Mon. The next chance for sub-VFR
conditions will be Mon night, lasting through Tue night and perhaps
into Wed, as southwest flow brings in low level moisture and an
increased risk for showers, as well low stratus and fog, especially
dusk through dawn. A cold front passage late Wed night or early Thu
will bring a better chance for showers then.