Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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600 FXUS62 KRAH 300653 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 253 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT --WITH COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH...AND MUCH WARMER ONES TO THE SOUTH-- WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NC TODAY. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FOLLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN RESULT THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 905 PM FRIDAY... QUIET AND DRY BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND NE NC... POISED TO PUSH A BIT FURTHER SSW INTO NC AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE VA COAST DRAWS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN FROM THE NNE... WITH THE STABILIZING ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. EXPECT INCREASING AND THICKENING LOW CLOUDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST CWA... WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THERE. WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO THE SW CWA... WE`LL ALSO SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR SOUTH AND WEST RESULTING FROM UPPER LEVEL EVACUATION FROM THE WEAKENING AL MCS. IN SHORT... SKIES SHOULD TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEST/SOUTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH/EAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL BUT LEVEL OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... YIELDING LOWS FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW-MID 60S SW. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY... LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS WHERE CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY LIFT/PARTIALLY SCATTER. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL CAUSE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT AS THE DAY WEARS ON...MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 MAY NOT SEE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOME PLACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70. EXPECT THE RAIN TO BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE CENTERED/MAXIMIZED. RAIN MAY BE MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY LOWER IN THE EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY... SUNDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW ACROSS AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH...WITH CAPE APPROACHING 2K JOULES...DUE TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PWAT >1.5 INCHES...BUT SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE VERY WEAK...HENCE EXPECT LESSER COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION IN THE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY AND RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT...UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH...IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME. WARM AND MOIST REGIME LINGERS INTO MONDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING MINS WILL BE MILD...RANGING FROM 60 TO 65. SOUTHWEST FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY...NUDGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN TO PRODUCE DECREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL UNTIL TUESDAY...SO HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL MAINLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OR JUST OFFSHORE INTO MID WEEK. WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT UP THE FRONTAL ZONE IN INCREASINGLY DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROF TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY 70 TO 75 AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 50S. QUITE A SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LATE WEEK...WHETHER THE UPPER TROF ACTUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA OR WHETHER IT CUTS OFF...WITH A MEANDERING UPPER LOW LEFT OVER THE EAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AS WE WILL REMAIN COOL...MID 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND DRY IN PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST FLOW. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY... IFR TO MVFR RANGE STRATUS (600-2000 FT) --IN NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE COOL SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONT OVER WEST-CENTRAL NC-- WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL SEPARATE LOW OVERCAST TO THE NORTH FROM WARM VFR CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL/CLOUDY SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY...WITH MERELY A GRADUAL RISE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS INTO THE 1500-2500 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE EDGES MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF SCATTERING TO VFR --MOST LIKELY AT FAY AND RWI-- FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT TRIAD TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL OTHERWISE LOWER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT PIEDMONT TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. OUTLOOK: A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC...MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...MWS

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