Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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045 FXUS62 KRAH 110227 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 927 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the area through Monday. A dry cold front will cross the Carolinas early Tuesday, followed by much colder temperatures for the midweek period. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 927 PM Sunday... Clipper-like wave aloft that can be seen rotating SEWD into the Southern and Central Appalachians, will move through the region over the next several hours. Given very dry airmass(PWAT ~0.25") in place, this feature is expected to yield only thin high cloudiness, having little to no influence on radiational cooling. Lows tonight ranging from lower to mid 20s where snow cover still exists to upper 20s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /Monday through Monday night/... As of 209 PM Sunday... A short wave dropping SE across the western Great Lakes region will back the flow over our area, thus allowing for warming. Low level thicknesses will increase nearly 50m over the next 24-30 hours. Thus highs tomorrow will range from around 50 across the Triad, to low 50s Triangle, to mid 50s around Fayetteville. Otherwise, look for another day with plenty of sunshine, and perhaps some passing mid and high clouds Monday evening ahead of the aforementioned short wave. Passing mid and high clouds will continue overnight as the short wave and its attendant cold front crosses the Ohio Valley. Lows Monday night will fall to around freezing...a little warmer than previous nights thanks to the aforementioned clouds and an overall warming trend ahead of the front. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 308 PM Sunday... The highly amplified pattern, with cold trough in the east and the warm ridge out west is expected to deamplify late week. After another quick shot over very cold air Tuesday into Wednesday night, a moderation in temperatures can be expected Thursday into the weekend. As this pattern becomes more zonal late this week, and most likely transitional (back to another highly amplified pattern in 6- 10 days), the uncertainty will increase significantly in the details of the forecast. Therefore, we will keep out any precipitation late week or over the weekend due to the considerable spread in the overall guidance by then. As far as temperatures, the coldest period will be Tuesday night through Thursday morning when lows are expected to be 19-25 and highs in the 30s Wednesday. The warmest readings should be next weekend when highs potentially will reach well into the 50s to near 60 SE. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 624 PM Sunday... 24-Hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Winds will generally be light and varying from southwesterly to southerly throughout the period. A few passing high clouds are possible overnight, but skies will otherwise be clear. -KC Looking ahead: Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the week with high pressure and dry airmass for most of this time period. The exceptions will be associated with cold front passages Tuesday, and another one late Thursday or early Friday. However, right now these systems are expected to pass by without any precip or reduced cig/vsby. -NP && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT LONG TERM...pwb AVIATION...kc/np is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.