Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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896 FXUS62 KRAH 221922 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 215 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure will remain in control through Friday. A resultant moist southwesterly flow will bring very humid conditions into Saturday. Low pressure is forecast to track over the central Appalachians eastward across VA on Friday night and Saturday morning. The trailing cold front will move through central NC late Saturday or Saturday night, likely stalling over the SE Coastal Plain. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 215 PM EDT Thursday... The influx of deep moisture(PWATS 2.0-2.25")and upper vort impulses between the surface high located over Bermuda and what is now T.D. Cindy over east TX/west LA will support scattered showers into the overnight hours, along with a few thunderstorms across the Sandhills this afternoon, where some tempered insolation has allowed weak to moderate instability(500-1000 J/Kg MLCAPE) to develop. By ~ 06z, the brunt of disturbances look to pass to north/northeast of the area with little in the way of lift within the very moist airmass. Otherwise, expect low stratus again with balmy lows in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 323 PM EDT Thursday... The plume of high >2.0" PWATS over the Carolinas briefly lifts away from the area, before a secondary surge late Friday night and Saturday as the remnants of Cindy approach from the west. There will also be a void in forcing over the region on Friday as well, with only insolation and the inland retreating seabreeze boundary acting on the continued moist/muggy low-level airmass. Will have a small chance/scattered pops across the southeast, otherwise isolated. After extensive morning stratus, highs should rebound quickly in the warm sector reaching the lower 90s SE, with mid to upper 80s NW. breezy SW winds to 20-25 MPH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 323 PM EDT Thursday... The lower/mid tropospheric remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy are forecast to become increasingly sheared and will accelerate NEWD through the southern Mid-Atlantic States early Saturday as it gets picked by the westerlies ahead of the northern stream trough digging into the Central US. With the remnant circulation/PV anomaly associated with Cindy expected to pass north, so will the heavy rain/flooding threat, with QPF amounts having decreased significantly across the area. Instead, a concentrated area of warm moist advection, along the leading edge of a H8 50kt LLJ, will fuel a band of showers and thunderstorms into western NC, that will weaken as they progress eastward into the central and eastern Saturday morning as the better support aloft lifts off to the northeast. Convective re-development is then expected during the afternoon and evening, as the lead cold front moves into the area, before stalling near the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Scattered in the west, to possibly numerous showers and storms in the east are possible Saturday afternoon, with a few strong to severe storms possible in the east. Additionally, with the front forecast to stall out, some localized/isolated flooding is possible as storms train along the stationary boundary. A stronger disturbance aloft in the cyclonic flow across the eastern half of the country is expected to approach and move across the area early next week, along with an associated cold front. This will give us another chance for some showers and storms on Monday into Monday night, along with a push of drier and cooler air, with highs by Tuesday possibly struggling to reach 80 across the Piedmont and some low temps dropping into the mid to upper 50s by Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday through Monday/... As of 100 PM Thursday... Patchy light rain and predominantly MVFR ceilings will spread from the southwest progressively east over central NC this afternoon. Conditions will persist into early tonight, with ceilings lowering to IFR after midnight through 12-13Z tomorrow morning, with widespread light rain or drizzle. Southwest winds around 6 knots overnight will prevent dense fog from forming, although MVFR 3-5 miles are possible in the 08-13Z time frame. Drying from the south will begin to lift conditions across the south by 15Z, with potential for MVF ceilings to hang around through 18Z in the north. Looking ahead beyond 18Z Friday... another period of late night stratus is expected to bring IFR CIGS again Friday morning. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected Fri-Sun, with a chance of MVFR conditions mainly during the afternoon and evening Friday due to a shower or thunderstorm. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...CBL/BSD AVIATION...Badgett/mlm

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