Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 290119 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 912 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 912 PM FRIDAY... SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PATCHY AREAS OF CUMULUS WERE DISSIPATING AND SPREADING OUT INTO STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE REGION WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THERE WAS ALSO A STREAM OF CIRRUS RIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. MID EVENING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S INTO THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM PA/MD ACROSS NC INTO SC. WINDS WERE LIGHT. OVERNIGHT... NO MAJOR ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD. THE CIRRUS SHOULD TEND TO THIN OUT AT TIMES REVEALING FAIR SKIES. LOWS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S (INCREDIBLY COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST) AND ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY... SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST... AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT... BEGINNING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY... BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN NC SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE FORCING OVERSPREADS THIS REGION BEGINNING DURING PEAK HEATING... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN (WHERE FORCING IN THE BEST) AND SOUTHERN (WHERE MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE BEST) PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON THE LOWER END. ALSO...LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS SETUP WOULD SUPPRESS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...KEEPING IT PINNED CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES (WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RIDGE). REGARDLESS...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...WITH NEAR CLIMATOLOGY (MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) POPS AND TEMPS. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY... 24 HOUR PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS IN TO THE REGION FROM THE MIDATLANTIC. OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...30

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