Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 282000 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 255 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT 19Z AND WILL SHIFT OVER NC AND VA TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME REAL THIN CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST...BUT LOOKS WAY TO THIN TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON LOWS AS IT ADVECTS TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN THAT LOWS WERE IN THE 20S LAST NIGHT AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION TODAY...EXPECT TO SEE MORE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S...POSSIBLY SOME TEENS IN OUTLYING AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE SC COAST BY MIDDAY. MEANWHILE...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES... ONE EMERGING OFF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WITH THE LEAD WAVE...FORCING IS FOCUSED ALOFT AS THE BRUNT OF THE DCVA PASSES TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE IS FOCUSED IN THE MID-LEVELS...PER NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...AND DECREASES RAPIDLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. WHILE THE ECMWF PRODUCES A FEW HUNDREDTHS AREAWIDE BETWEEN 18-00Z...THE NAM/GFS/SREF SUGGEST JUST A PASSING SPRINKLE AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS LOOKS MOST REASONABLE. SOUTHERLY WIND WILL HELP HIGHS REBOUND THURSDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY NIGHT...ON THE HEELS OF THE LEAD WAVE...THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT...WILL CROSS THE CWA IN THE 03-09Z TIME FRAME. THE FORCING FOR ACCENT IS MUCH BETTER WITH STRONGER DCVA AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...ALL WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING SPEED MAX OVER THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...MOISTURE MAY AGAIN BE TOO LIMITED AS THE DEEPER LAYER FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY. A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE WITH FRONT...BUT MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY. MAY SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE INITIAL COLD ADVECTION...AS LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 225 AM WEDNESDAY... UPDATED SHORTLY....
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1240 PM WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW WIND GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TO GO CALM AFTER 00Z. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFFSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THAT WILL BE 5-10KT...STRONGER AT KGSO/KINT WHERE A FEW WINDS GUSTS INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY COME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...BLS SHORT TERM...BLS LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...BLS

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