Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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043 FXUS62 KRAH 190738 RRA AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 338 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move into the Piedmont this morning and will push slowly east across the Coastal Plain this afternoon before sagging just south of the area tonight and Sunday. Another front will approach the area on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM Saturday... Scattered band of convection associated with the 850-700 mb trough will push east of the area over the next couple of hours. Meanwhile trailing sfc cold front currently over the NC mtns/fthls is expected to push east into the central Piedmont by daybreak, with very little fanfare in terms of rain chances. What we will see however is noticeably drier low-level air advecting into the western Piedmont this morning and then into the central Piedmont by the afternoon as the cold front pushes slowly east into the NC coastal counties. Rain chances this afternoon will be confined to areas east of Interstate 95, in proximity to the front and attendant juicier-more unstable air. It will be a good 3 to 4 degrees cooler than Friday, but again the big story here is the drier-less humid air, especially across the western and central Piedmont which will for the most part keep This should keep heat index values below the century mark. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Upper trough will swing across the area late this evening and tonight, with perhaps some very thin high clouds. Otherwise, the drier low-level air will allow for cooler overnight lows. Lows ranging from upper 60s in the NW Piedmont to lower 70s in the Coastal Plain. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 315 AM Saturday... Heights aloft will rise in the wake of the low-amplitude shortwave trough moving out of the region with a 594 dm upper level anticyclone strengthening over the SE US late Sunday into Monday. Meanwhile, front just south of the area will likely wash-out and become ill-define by Sunday evening. Can`t rule out isolated convection along the sea breeze across the far SE Zones, otherwise the warm air and resultant CAP aloft will put a lid on convection across central NC on Sunday. Highs in the lower to mid 90s with lingering low-level dry air again keeping heat indices below 100 F. Onset of southerly return flow Sunday night will mark the return of low-level moisture and warmer temps. Lows 70 to 75. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 244 PM Friday... Monday: As continental high pressure begins to merge with an offshore surface high the question for Monday will be how much moisture is in the weak southerly return flow and what will that result in as far as cloud cover for the eclipse viewing. Partly cloudy skies look likely but there should be enough breaks in the clouds to get a decent view of the moon passing between us and our closest star situated some 93,000,000 miles away. While temperatures are expected to rise into the lower 90s there will be a break in the heat from roughly 1:30 to 3:30 PM. A scattered shower or thunderstorm cant be ruled out, especially in the southern tier of the area. Rest of the week: Relative dry but warm weather continues through Tuesday before the next frontal system passes through the area on Wednesday in association with a low pressure system moving across southern Canada. High rain chances Wednesday will continue through Thursday in the east and possibly into Friday as the front begins to stall near the coast. Temperatures in the low 90s Tuesday and Wednesday will fall back into the mid 80s for Thursday and maybe into the low 80s by Friday. With that, some dewpoints in the lower 60s should make for some very comfortable weather heading into the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 112 AM Saturday... A broken line of showers and storms will cross central NC this evening into very early Saturday morning in advance of a cold front moving into the area from the west. The activity is currently moving through KRDU and will affect the eastern TAF sites KRWI and KFAY through 09z. Heavy rain and gusty winds, along with a brief period of IFR conditions will be possible with the strongest storms. The cold front will be moving into the central Piedmont by around daybreak, and will push slowly east across the NC coastal plain by the afternoon. As such, isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible at KFAY this afternoon. Otherwise, dry air filtering into the area in the wake of the front will result in dry VFR conditions Saturday afternoon/evening. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Saturday night and Sunday with dry weather expected. The threat of late-day storms and some early- morning fog and stratus will return Tuesday with numerous showers and storms expected to accompany a cold frontal passage Wednesday/Wednesday night. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...CBL

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