Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS62 KRAH 281843
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
243 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
High pressure will persist over the region through today. An upper
level disturbance over the Atlantic will drift west toward the
Carolina coast through Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1025 AM Sunday...
Little change required to the near term forecast.
Patches of low clouds/stratus have begun to erode. This should lead
to mostly sunny or partly cloudy skies at most locations by mid day.
12Z upper air analysis depicts an area of high pressure at the
surface and aloft extending sw-ne across most of the western
Piedmont. Subsidence associated with this feature should inhibit
convective development later this afternoon. In the east, low level
analysis depicts a weak trough and attendant weak moisture
convergence along the eastern periphery of our forecast area. This
should aid in the development/maintaining isolated to scattered
convection later this afternoon. Best threat for a shower or storm
should be confined to locations east of I-95, and more so in
vicinity of Goldsboro and Clinton.
850MB temps are about 3 deg C cooler compared to same time Saturday.
This supports afternoon temps a solid 5-7 degrees cooler than
Saturday. This yields max temps this afternoon near 90 to the lower
A steady east-ne confluent onshore flow aided by the approach of a
developing tropical depression off the NC coast will result in
variably cloudy skies and a threat for showers along the east-se
fringe of our forecast area. Otherwise expect mostly clear-partly
cloudy skies elsewhere. Overnight temps near 70-lower 70s.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 400 AM Sunday...
Monday looks fairly similar to today, with the upper low drifting
inland over SC and briefly stalling. A strong moisture gradient
will set up again with the surface ridge and deeper mixing in
the west, and better moisture/instability over the coastal plain.
A weak offshore surface low drifting toward the NC coast will have
little impact here, and scattered showers and a few storms will
again be confined to the southern coastal plain. Highs in the
upper 80s and lower 90s. Lows monday night in the upper 60s and
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 243 PM SUNDAY...
A couple of systems to deal with during the long-term period, the
first of which will be what comes of TD8, now located about 400mi SE
of KHSE. Based on latest model guidance and NHC track, it appears
that system will remain far enough to our east to preclude any
impacts to central NC. Assuming no changes, the Tue-Wed time frame
looks to be mostly-dry with subsidence on the north and west side of
that system resulting in below-climo pops for central NC, along with
temps remaining several deg above normal, despite NE flow.
The next system will be a short wave trough and assoc sfc cold front
approaching from the north on Wednesday night and moving across our
CWA on Thursday. While the sfc boundary coupled with mid-upr forcing
assoc with a departing jet streak will provide adequate forcing for
ascent, NW pre-frontal low to mid-level flow suggests that the best
moisture will be found closer to the coast. Thus will feature a
west-east pop gradient for the day and evening hours Thursday,
highest pops east. Temps will continue to remain above normal until
the front moves through.
Lastly, a lot of uncertainty remains for next weekend as it relates
to what`s now the disturbed weather over the FL straights. Models
have been bouncing around with it`s movement, and whether or not
it`s going to make a run up along the SE coast late in the week into
next weekend. Of course a lot can change between now and then, so
for now, will keep pops at or below climo with near normal temps
across our area for next weekend, while keeping a close eye on
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.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Sunday...
There is high confidence that VFR conditions will prevail across the
western Piedmont of central NC through Monday night as an area of
high pressure at the surface and aloft extends overhead. Surface
winds out of the northeast may be breezy at times Monday, gusting
Along and east of the highway 1 corridor, periods of cloudiness will
occur, resulting in MVFR/IFR ceilings, with the lowest ceilings
expected between 09Z-15Z Monday. A few showers may skirt in vicinity
of KFAY and KGSB , and south of KRWI this afternoon through early
evening, and again Monday afternoon. The difference in pressure
between the high to the west and the approach of tropical depression
to our east will yield breezy northeast winds Monday of 10-14kts
with occasional gusts near 20kts.
The above conditions expected to occur again Tuesday. Forecast
confidence lowers for the remainder of the work week as model
guidance offering varied solutions concerning the approach of a low
pressure system from the south-southwest, and a cold front from the
nw. At this time, the risk of adverse aviation conditions appear
greater at KFAY and KRWI, and less so at KRDU, KGSO, and KINT.