Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 290836 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 336 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER BRIEFLY STALLING TO THE NORTH...THE FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY... TODAY AND TONIGHT: NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE FL PENINSULA BY 12Z SUN. ACCORDINGLY...1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG (ALBEIT SLIGHTLY INLAND) OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY/TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW /WARM ADVECTION/ IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH WILL RESULT IN A RAPID RISE IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TODAY...TO 1325-1330 METERS (1000-850 MB) BY 00Z THIS EVENING. ACCORDINGLY...HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE A GOOD 5-8F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...IN THE LOWER/MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER/MID 30S TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM CIRRUS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUN. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW /WARM ADVECTION/ IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A SURGE IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ON SUNDAY...RISING TO ~1360 METERS BY 00Z MON. ACCORDINGLY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH 60-65F (COOLEST NW). DESPITE A MODEST INCREASE IN SFC-H85 MOISTURE ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. -VINCENT
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY... WARM MONDAY...THEN MUCH COLDER TUESDAY... MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH A GOOD WAA PATTERN EXPECTED... AS THE FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC CUT OFF. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A BREEZY W-SW WIND. HIGHS A GOOD 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL YIELDS AT LEAST 65-72. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIVEN INTO OUR REGION COURTESY OF THE 1040+ MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT FOLLOWS THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW AND THERE MAY ONLY BE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT PATCHY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE PREDOMINATE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NC. REGARDLESS...IT WILL TURN OVERCAST AND COLDER WITH A NOTICEABLE CHILLY BREEZE FROM THE NE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S NE TO SW. HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY 40-45... EXCEPT 45-50 SE. WE WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY NIGHT (THUS NO CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE). SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT IN BUILDING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER CENTRAL NC. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S EXPECTED.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY... THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE INCREASINGLY FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT (PACIFIC AIR THIS TIME) TO APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...BEFORE RAPIDLY SHIFTING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE 55-62 RANGE. THEN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO THE 30 YEAR AVERAGES FOR EARLY DECEMBER. ALL IN ALL...A RATHER MILD WEEK OF WEATHER AFTER LAST WEEKS STORM.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SSW/SW AT 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE REGION PROGRESS OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY... HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) ON SUN/MON. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS...LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST TUE/TUE NIGHT...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON WED/THU. -VINCENT
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...PWB LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...VINCENT

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