Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 232215 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 615 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will push south through the region this evening and overnight. High pressure over the Great Lakes will build south and east through the rest of the week, bringing cooler and drier weather.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 615 PM Wednesday... Update to confine the isolated severe threat to the Interstate 95 corridor. Update to lower POP in the NW to NIL and confine 50-70 POP to the I-95 Corridor. For the areas from the Triad to the Triangle area, only a 20 POP for a brief shower or thunderstorm through the next few hours. Outflows have driven southeast across all but the far SE Coastal Plain as of 600 PM. The area ahead of the lead outflow, mainly Scotland, Cumberland, Johnston, Sampson, and Wayne Counties are still in a "marginal risk" of severe thunderstorms. We have had a few trees downed on an isolated basis already. The main threat of isolated wind damage will continue until the outflow passes trough the SE zones before 800 PM. Otherwise, locally heavy rain in the NE zones is still a threat with the main cold front finally drifting in from the north. POP will drop off quickly overnight as the winds become light NNE. Mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the mid 60s north, 70- 75 SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... For Thursday expect the frontal zone to hang up either in far southeastern areas of the state or just offshore. With the exception of a lingering afternoon shower in the far southeastern portion of the forecast area, much of the CWA should remain dry and significantly cooler than the past week or so. Expect high temperatures only in the low to mid 80s with north winds at 5-10 kts. Skies will continue to clear as the day progresses with the Triad seeing the most sun. Lows in the low to mid 60s across the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 210 PM Wednesday... An extended period of mostly dry and cooler-than-normal weather appears likely. Cool Canadian high pressure will build in strongly from the north through the period, as its center drifts from N Ontario early Fri to New England early Mon, then weakens just off the Northeast and Mid Atlantic coast Tue/Wed. The only significant rain chance through the period appears to be in the far SE, closer to the old frontal zone where PW will be higher. The far NW including the Triad will see a smaller chance of light precip, driven largely by moist upglide and shallow instability, mainly Fri night into Sat, with overrunning clouds dominating there through Sun. Will start to edge pops up closer to climatology for early next week, given the uncertainty with a potential tropical-type low off the SE coast, along with the weakening of the surface high and resultant increase in onshore-directed low level flow drawing in Atlantic moisture. Expect high temps in the low-mid 80s Fri, before trending down to the mid 70s to near 80 by Tue as the stable wedge noses down through central NC. Some rebounding back to highs in the low-mid 80s is expected by Wed as low level thicknesses begin to inch back up toward normal. -GIH && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 225 PM Wednesday... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through the area this afternoon and evening in association with a cold front. Current radar shows convection in the vicinity of KINT and KGSO but pushing eastward with a few showers near eastern airports as well. Coverage will continue to increase this afternoon for eastern sites whereas the Triad terminals should see decreasing trends as the front moves past. Winds will be light and variable outside of gusts within thunderstorms which could reach 20-30 kts. Overnight expect potential visibility restrictions as well as some possible IFR ceilings at eastern locations, especially where rain lingers into the overnight hours. Winds will switch to northerly after frontal passage and conditions are expected to return to VFR after 15z Thursday. Cant rule out a shower in the east tomorrow afternoon but confidence is low at this time. Long Term: High pressure over the area should yield an extended period of VFR conditions. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...Ellis

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