Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251430 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1030 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will push southeastward through central North Carolina, weakening as it pushes to the coast later today. A second cold front will sweep through the area on Tuesday, followed by high pressure that will persist across the region through the rest of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
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As of 1030 AM EDT Sunday... Main adjustment to the near term forecast was to adjust dewpoints upward several degrees as drier air not advecting into central NC as quickly as earlier thinking. 12Z sfc and upper air analysis depict a low level trough and attendant sfc front crossing central NC. Sf dewpoints have lowered into the low-mid 60s across the nw Piedmont while dewpoints in the low-mid 70s still apparent across the remainder of the region. While the sfc front will exit our far eastern-southeast counties by early afternoon, not until the passage of the 850mb trough around/after 18Z will most of central NC start to see the dewpoints lower. West- southwest flow aloft will continue to stream high level moisture overhead, so even though the lower layers of the atmosphere will dry out, high level cloudiness will still be evident. Thus expect skies to be variably cloudy/partly sunny this afternoon. Temperatures o track to reach the mid-upper 80s with places across the Sandhills and southern coastal plain reaching 90. Isolated convection still probable along our eastern-se periphery through late afternoon. Elsewhere a stable drier air mass should inhibit convective development. Tonight, west-nw flow will continue to usher in the drier air mass. Thus it should be noticeably less humid. Skies will slowly clear, with mostly clear skies regionwide by the overnight hours. Min temps quite pleasant for early summer, ranging from the upper 50s to around 60 in the nw Piedmont to the mid 60s southeast. A cold front stretches along the eastern fringe of the Piedmont early this morning, accompanied by a few weakening showers. This front will slow as it approaches the coast early this afternoon, resulting in a small chance of showers in the southern coastal plain and sandhills through late day. Northwest flow behind the front will lead to a more stable airmass settling north of the front, but cooler air will be delayed until tonight, so highs today will reach the mid to upper 80s. Tonight, as skies clear with the drier airmass in place, temperatures will fall to the upper 50s in the northwest to mid 60s in the southeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Sunday... Modestly cooler and drier air will be in place on Monday, making for a pleasant day with mostly sunny skies and highs topping out in the low to mid 80s. A dry, reinforcing cold front will dip southeast and through the area Monday night as a long wave trof over the northeast CONUS amplifies. Continued cool air advection and good radiational conditions will allow mins to bottom out in the upper 50s to low 60s Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 325 AM Sunday... A longwave trough moving across the East during the beginning of the long term period will cross the Carolinas late Tues, pushing a cold front offshore and ushering in high pressure along with a drier and cooler airmass. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that a broken line of showers and tstms may move across central NC Tues afternoon as the trough axis approaches and moves through, however the GFS keeps most of this shower/tstm activity near the coast, while the ECMWF suggests this possibility across central NC as well. For now, given the uncertainty, will keep pops Tues afternoon near climo (20-25%). Dry weather can then be expected Wed-Fri as high pressure transits the East. Temps will be near normal Wed as the high moves in and while overhead, then look for temps and humidity to increase Thu and Fri as the high moves offshore and S-SW low level flow resumes across the Carolinas. Southerly flow will further increase over the weekend in response to a short wave moving across the Great Lakes region and a sfc front approaching the Appalachians. With increases moisture and synop scale forcing approaching, will bring rain chances back into the forecast for the weekend, with highest rain chances west of the Triangle. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday through Thursday/... As of 145 AM Sunday... Cold front moving east across the area early this morning will be accompanied by a few showers and a brief IFR threat at RDU/RWI, with conditions extended through 12-14Z at FAY as the front slows or stalls across the southeast today. Otherwise, a brief predawn period of IFR visibilities in fog are possible due to clearing skies and high low level moisture. Northwest winds 6-8 knots will be prevalent along with VFR conditions at all sites by 14Z and continue through the remainder of the TAF period. Looking beyond Sunday night, VFR conditions are likely to hold through the upcoming work week. It will be overwhelmingly dry, with only a few showers expected with passage of a reinforcing cold front on Tue. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...mlm LONG TERM...np AVIATION...mlm/Hartfield

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