Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 201316 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 917 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 917 AM SATURDAY... SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL DECREASE HEADING EAST TOWARD THE COAST...CENTRAL NC WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW. THUS...EXPECT THE CURRENT EAST-WEST TREND IN CLOUD COVER WITH SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST....WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND. WILL INDICATE SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES(SAMPSON/WAYNE/CUMBERLAND) WITH DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH THE OPAQUE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES SUFFICIENTLY OPAQUE TO SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO MIDS 60S EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY... DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AS THE STALLED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES PROGRESSIVE...MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE MID 80S...LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY... DRY AND COOL TO START THE WEEK...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS/COOL LATE WEEK... A LARGE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREFORE... ESSENTIALLY NIL POP AND QPF FOR MONDAY. GOOD DRY AND COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY COURTESY OF THE STRONG HIGH. MODELS HAVE YET TO RESOLVE DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OR OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI. SOME MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE LESS IN THE WAY OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT. REGARDLESS... IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ESPECIALLY LATE WED INTO THU. JUST HOW DEEP THIS MOISTURE BECOMES SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE HEIGHTS ALOFT WHICH MAY NOT BE RESOLVED FOR A FEW MODEL CYCLES. THEREFORE... THE ONLY CHANCES MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES A BIT MONDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN EXPECTED (PARTLY SUNNY SKIES... BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON)... AND LESS POP WITH THE EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (NOW NIL). HIGHS GENERALLY 77-82 N TO SE. MUCH COOLER TUE-WED WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER RURAL PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT... THEN HIGHS ONLY 70-75 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE WILL SHOW A TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS THU-FRI DUE TO THE ATLANTIC FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A WEAKNESS ALOFT. POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS IF THE EC/CANADIAN TEND TO VERIFY BETTER. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM CURRENT LIFR/IFR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WHICH WILL SCATTER OUT BY 12-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT THE INT/GSO/RDU TERMINALS...LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY (SUBSIDENT SIDE) OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS (BASES 2500- 3500 FT AGL) AND ISOLD SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOC/W A MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLD SHOWER AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS AND A 10-15 KT WESTERLY BREEZE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFT/EVE...VFR CONDITIONS (AND A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE) WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NW. -VINCENT && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...CBL/VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...VINCENT

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