Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 240055 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 855 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 855 PM THURSDAY... PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECOUPLE...OPAQUE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ATTENDANT TO THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL TEMPER MIN TEMPS...KEEPING READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY... AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN NC/UPSTATE SC BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING...THEN PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE SAT. DUE TO THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS...FORCING (I.E. DPVA) ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE CONFINED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (~500 MB) OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...WITH CLEARING DURING THE EVENING. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY... DRY AND MILD TO WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK... THERE WERE ONLY MINOR ISSUES TO CONSIDER IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. IN GENERAL... RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A DRY FLOW AND OFTEN TIMES IS ONE IN WHICH TEMPERATURES END UP WARMER THAN STATICAL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY ISSUES WILL BE THE TIMING OF A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND. REGARDLESS... A MILD TO WARM WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SUGGESTS A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO MILDER LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY... EVEN THOUGH THE WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN... SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S. THE NE ZONES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY (COMPARED TO SATURDAY) AS THE SIGNIFICANT CAA IS DIRECTED MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... BUT MAY GRAZE THE NE ZONES FOR A BRIEF TIME. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. A RETURN FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GIVE TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE OF A BOOST AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MEAN ZONAL FLOW. HIGHS MAY HIT 80 OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY SUBTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK... WITH A CONTINUED DRY LOOK TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN FOR OUR REGION. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 814 PM THURSDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. -VINCENT
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...SEC/VINCENT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.