Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 271825 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 225 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1027 AM THURSDAY... CLOUD COVER... PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE... WILL HANG ON IN TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE IN TO THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME... AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY... SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS ELONGATED TROUGHINESS LINGERS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF NEWED INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. UNDER INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE ...FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH RAIN CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER MTNS AND FTHLS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INVOF WHERE THE SEABREEZE MAY BE ENHANCED BY NEARBY WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY... UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN GULF STATES WILL EJECT NORTH AS IT IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE RETROGRESSING ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN NC ON SUNDAY...INCREASING CONVECTIVE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA DURING MAX HEATING. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT HIGH CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL THICKEN AND LOWER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE LIFTS TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDINESS...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO FORCING OF NOTE...AND WE ALSO REMAIN BENEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO FURTHER HINDER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSOLATION WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO INDUCE AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MID WEEK PERIOD...NO SURPRISE HERE...WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA. ONGOING TRACK FORECAST BRINGS IT NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAVE US IN THE WARM AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY QUADRANT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE DAY 7 FORECAST AS THE TC OR REMNANTS THEREOF WILL BE CUT OFF FROM STEERING FLOW AND MIGHT MEANDER SLIGHTLY INLAND...EDGE FURTHER OFFSHORE...OR WANDER OFF TO POINTS UNFORESEEN AT THIS TIME. AS SUCH...WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN TIER PENDING LATER GUIDANCE. HIGHS WED AND THU WILL BE PERSISTENCE IN THE UNCHANGED AIRMASS...PERHAPS TEMPERED A BIT BY THE CLOUD SHIELD...LOOKING AT MOSTLY MID 80S.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 152 PM THURSDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONDITIONS ARE VFR ACROSS THE AREA AS EARLIER STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR AS THE REGION IS INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...30

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