Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 171947 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 346 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross the region this evening, bringing cooler drier air for the beginning of the week. There is a freeze potential Monday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 345 PM Sunday... The cold front currently positioned over the lee side of the Appalachian mountains will continue to shift east this afternoon and evening, before exiting the region Monday morning. Winds have been W to SW 5-10 mph with occasional gusts of 15 to 20 mph. As the front approaches expect occasional gusts to continue just ahead. Just behind the front winds will shift to a N / NW flow with a few sporadic gusts immediately behind of 15 to 20 mph overnight. A few isolated light showers could develop over the Sandhills and Coastal Plain region late this evening through early Monday morning. As dry high pressure moves in behind the front early morning, rain chances quickly diminish. Cloud coverage is expected to linger overnight and early morning thus fog is not likely Monday morning. With the cold air advection filtering in overnight, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than last night with lows in the low 40s NW to low 50s SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday... Cooler and cloudy conditions are expected Monday behind tonight`s front... Surface high pressure will build east from the central Plains Monday to across the Deep South by Monday night. Partly to mostly cloudy skies, and northwesterly wind gust to 20 mph, will make fore a more chilly day compared to recent high temperatures. Highs in the mid-50s to low 60s will be 10 to 15 degrees lower than Sunday, and around 5 degrees below normal. A deep trough will dig SE across the region Monday night, maintaining breezy northwesterly flow and cold air advection through early Monday night. The trough may be able to tap into lingering moisture across the southern Coastal Plain to generate a shower or two Monday evening, then dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the period. The cold air surging into the region Monday night will lower temperatures to 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with many areas dipping to near or just below freezing. The southern half of the region has begun the growing season, and the Freeze Watch remains in effect for the southern Piedmont and the western Sandhills for Monday night. The remaining areas of the Sandhills and the southern Coastal Plain may need a frost advisory. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 PM Sunday... High pressure should be centered over Louisiana Tuesday morning and slowly drift to the east through the week. Cold advection will continue with westerly flow, and Tuesday should have the coldest highs out of the next seven days, with values in the 50s. As the Gulf Coast high shifts to the east, the wind should take on a southerly component, allowing warmer temperatures to move into the region. Tuesday night`s temperatures should be warmer than Monday night`s temperatures everywhere, with lows ranging from 35 to 43, so an additional night of frost/freeze headlines appears unlikely. Highs should moderate nicely into the 60s and low 70s on Wednesday before a wind shift drops highs by about 5 degrees on Thursday. Model solutions diverge for the weekend. While both the GFS and ECMWF (along with their respective ensembles) show a low developing over the Gulf of Mexico, crossing Florida, and moving up the Carolina coast, the models have shown different timing, with the GFS faster with the arrival of precipitation than the ECMWF. Considering the NBM timing has been closer to the GFS/GEFS timing, have gone close to that through the extended forecast. This brings chance pops to the forecast for Friday, Friday night, and Saturday, with the surface low near the NC/SC border Saturday morning, and slight chance pops for Saturday night and Sunday. Meanwhile a quick look at the 12Z ECMWF shows the model trending quicker with the precipitation, with timing closer to the GFS family but the low still about 12 hours slower than the GFS. Highs through the weekend should be near normal, mostly in the 60s, with lows in the upper 30s and 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 210 PM Sunday... Mid and high clouds will continue to stream across the region ahead of the incoming cold front from the west. Widespread VFR conditions at all TAF sites this afternoon are expected to continue through the 18z TAF period. Isolated areas of light rain across the Sandhills later this evening and overnight could be possible therefore have VCSH at KFAY between 5z and 12z Monday morning. Winds this afternoon have been mainly W to NW, but expected to take a turn as the front moves through to N to NW overnight and tomorrow. Occasional surface gusts of 15 to 20 kts are possible this afternoon ahead of the front then again early Monday morning as the cold front moves out of the region. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the outlook period. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for NCZ073>076-083-084. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CA NEAR TERM...CA SHORT TERM...JJT LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...CA

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